Agribusiness’ Channel Mix and Production Transforms Amid COVID-19

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Agribusiness has seen and continues to see the second-order effects of COVID-19. Meat processing plants are being redesigned; demand for poultry is soaring; and, government intervention enforces food processing plants to stay open.

Shelter in Place orders are triggering an oversupply of some fruits such as lemons, which saw demand falling more than 50% since mid-March. Now, concerns are mounting about a global shock to agribusiness supply chains, but companies say that’s unlikely–an oversupply is more probable. See our takeaways from market chatter below.

 

Takeaways:

Continue reading “Agribusiness’ Channel Mix and Production Transforms Amid COVID-19”

Major players in Oil & Gas address COVID-19

Interested in staying up-to-date on COVID-19’s impact across sectors? Visit our Coronavirus Impact Tracker for daily updates pulled from earnings calls, press releases, 8Ks, and more.

 

The pandemic has wreaked havoc on the energy industry. Oil and gas companies first saw reduced demand driven by shelter in place orders, then crude oil prices crashed. Now, oil and gas companies are figuring out how and when to resume operations, and energy’s role in a post-pandemic world.

We’ve compiled a snapshot on the widespread impact COVID-19 is having across the Oil & Gas industry. Learn which companies are communicating on Coronavirus and how they expect the virus to affect financial results.

 

Takeaways:

  • Q1 2020 earnings season shows US oil producers slamming on the brakes as they release drilling rigs and frac crews at an unprecedented pace
  • 17 of the 28 E&P operators that have disclosed frac counts in the downturn are going to zero
  • Meanwhile on the production side, voluntary shut-ins are now the norm with Lower 48 producers disclosing shut-ins ranging up to 40% of production in May
  • Add it all up, and the US shale oilfield is contracting more violently than in any past downcyle
  • The production response to low oil prices will likely be greater than most analysts are modeling, even today and highly constructive for oil prices when demand rebounds as the economy restarts

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Here are the highlights:

[Note: We are updating this post and our compilation post to reflect the most recent commentary. Last updated 5/8.]

 

EOG Resources Q1 2020 Earnings call (5/08)

Q:  I think one of the silver lining of the COVID-19 is that it triggered a lot of creativity, and you guys certainly have done a lot of that, as you mentioned. So what have we learned from this whole episode? And what is the — some of the best practice that may impact your future, how you run your operation?

A: Yes, Paul. This is Bill. Every situation — I’ve been with the company over 40 years, and I’ve been through a number of these downturns. This is certainly the most unique one that we’ve ever experienced. What it is really — what we’ve really seen inside the company is the tremendous value that our information systems and technology has allowed EOG to make a very granular evaluation of everything we do. Every well in the company, we know about it. We have all the data. And through our decentralized organization, we’ve been able to analyze down to a very granular level everything we’re doing. And so we’ve learned how important it is to have a great information systems in technology and how effective our employees have been to perform — and most of them are working from their homes, like everybody else in the world. 

Shell Midstream Q1 2020 Earnings call (5/07)

To date, the crude being impacted the most, both in terms of production as well as price, are those that are landlocked with less access to water. With the unique optionality and crude grade advantage, along with a lower marginal cost of production, we feel strongly that the Gulf will retain its long-term strength. And as always, we believe we are well positioned with one of the premier corridor networks to capture these benefits for the partnership.

Suncor Energy Q1 2020 Earnings call (5/06)

Our updated downstream guidance reflects our view of the significant demand reduction related to COVID-19 pandemic. In the markets we supply: average demand for gasoline is down 50%; jet fuel demand is down 70%; and distillate demand is down 20% versus Q1. In response to this demand reduction, we have taken the following actions. We’ve reduced our refinery utilizations in Q2 to approximately 65% to 75% of nameplate capacity. We’ve increased the relative diesel mix by 10%. We’ve leveraged the flexibility provided by our integrated model and midstream logistics assets, which generated over $225 million after-tax of additional value in the first quarter. And we maximized our upstream production into the refineries as feedstock.

Marathon Corp Q1 2020 Earnings call (5/05)

On Slide 11, we provide our second quarter outlook, which includes estimated throughput reductions at our facilities based on projected demand destruction from COVID-19 and associated shelter-in-place orders. We expect total throughput volumes of just over 2 million barrels per day, approximately 2/3 of our nominal — normal operating capacity. We have temporarily idled our Martinez and Gallup facilities in response to demand destruction.

Cabot Oil & Gas Corp Q1 2020 Earnings call (5/01)

Q: Okay. Got it. That’s very helpful. My other question is a lot of the optimism for 2021 seems to be based on lower supply from [gas] and oil activity. What do you think about demand for 2021, particularly in a recovery period from [COVID-19]?

A: Yes. And thanks for the question, Jeffrey. And I’ll flip it to Jeff here in a second, but we’re looking at certainly the lower supply and feel like the shut ins, the frac holidays, the associated gas reduction, the reduction in capital allocation going forward are all constructive to reduce supply. We feel good about the reduction in supply, and it’s going to be somewhere — probably between 8 to 10 Bcf a day reduction in supply is kind of the conventional wisdom right now. And we’ve seen prior to this pandemic coming through and with the start of demand loss, we were actually seeing some pretty healthy demand numbers out there. And I’ll let Jeff make his comments on the outlook on both.

ONEOK Q1 Earnings call (4/29)

Q: I just want to talk a little bit about the dynamics in the Bakken, particularly as it relates to the flared gas. So — and I guess my question is like as you get shut-ins and reduced drilling activity, will you see a reduction in flared gas as well, just naturally? And will that — do you want to quantify or any rule of thumb to think about how that would impact the number of well connects you would need to do based on that change in flared gas?

A: Michael, it’s Kevin. I’ll start and Chuck or others may have some comments. But yes, like we said in our prepared remarks, there’s multiple dynamics that could go on impacting flared gas. We have seen some wells shut in that had previously been flaring. So that doesn’t impact our volumes, obviously. We’ve also seen some situations where some gas was taken off-line. But other gas that was flaring due to some pipeline or compression constraints started flowing on the system. So effectively, it was replaced, which would bring flaring down.

OMV AG Q1 2020 Earnings call (4/29)

Looking into the first quarter of 2020, it was influenced by 2 significant effects: a shock in oil supply and the global COVID-19 pandemic. While the Upstream business was substantially hit by the collapse of oil prices, the Downstream business benefited in the first quarter from lower feedstock cost and showed a strong performance. The negative impact from COVID-19 on demand was in the first quarter still rather limited as most measures of European countries, such as lockdowns, were only effective as of mid-March. Thanks to our integrated portfolio, we were able to achieve a quite resilient results in an extremely challenging market environment.

Petrochina Q1 2020 Earnings call (4/29)

In the first quarter of 2020, facing the severe and complicated global economic environment and operational situation, PetroChina has tried its best efforts to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 by taking effective measures to prevent and control COVID-19, resuming work and production in an orderly way, launching a campaign of improving quality and enhancing profitability, focusing on optimization of production and operation, and devoting major efforts to intensify the control of the investment, costs and expenses.

As a result of the outbreak of COVID-19, the decrease in demand for the oil refined products on domestic markets, the Marketing segment recorded an operating loss of RMB 16.59 billion, a decrease of RMB 20.11 billion year-on-year.

Valero Energy Q1 2020 Earnings call (4/29)

First quarter 2020 results were impacted by low product margins related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the rapid decline in crude prices. Refining throughput volumes averaged 2.8 million barrels per day, which was in line with the first quarter of 2019. Throughput capacity utilization was 90% in the first quarter of 2020. Refining cash operating expenses of $3.87 per barrel were $0.28 per barrel lower than the first quarter of 2019, primarily due to lower natural gas prices.

Q: Hope all of you are doing well. I just wanted to follow up on this question of demand. We’ve talked a lot about on this call 2020 demand conditions. But Joe and team, I want to get your perspective on sort of the structural questions of demand, particularly for two products, gasoline and jet. So gasoline, the thoughts around work from home and does that create a change in social behavior that has an impact on low gas demand? And jet, the willingness of the consumer to travel, I think all of us are just trying to figure out whether there’s a long-term impact from some of the changes that we’ve seen here over the last month? Or do you view this as more cyclical?
A: Yes. Neil, this is Gary. So I think we are taking those things into account. And so where we saw a fairly sharp decline in demand to this 55% level, we would expect the recovery to be more gradual on the demand side. As people continue to work from home, we see some offsetting things. Certainly, people working from home, but then you’re going to have people driving more and probably using mass transit less going forward. It’s just because the social distancing is hard when you’re on mass transit.

BP PLC Q1 2020 Earnings call (4/28)

These actions in no way compromise our long-term commitment to shareholders. If anything, I believe they strengthen it, and we are hugely grateful for the support we have been receiving. At the same time, we are doing everything we can to strengthen our finances. Our underlying business has been performing well, but it has been a tough first quarter due to the challenging macro environment, which included impacts to our results through quarter end as a result of lower prices, lower demand for our products and foreign exchange effects.

Starting in the second quarter, in the upstream, we expect second quarter reported production to be lower compared to the first quarter. There are significant uncertainties with regard to the implementation of OPEC+ restrictions, price impacts on entitlement volumes, divestments and market restrictions given the lower demand for oil and COVID-19 operational impacts.

Galp Energia Q1 2020 Earnings call (4/27)

The unforeseeable demand drop due to the pandemic emergency measures and the high levels of supply has led to very high crude and product inventory levels, which will put pressure on prices over the next several months. Such environment has an obvious impact in our upstream performance as we were planning on oil prices of around $65 per barrel, as we have shared with you during the Capital Markets Day.

S-Oil Corp Q1 2020 Earnings call (4/27)

The first quarter of 2020 was the worst period of time for the Company due to outbreak of COVID-19. In the first quarter the Company posted a significant operating deficit due to a messy inventory-related [growth] from the [blunt] in crude oil prices and lingering weakness of refining margin.

Eni SpA Q1 2020 Earnings call (4/24)

We think that in May, the situation in terms of transplantation and consumption will be better, especially for gasoline. Diesel was — diesel consumption was, I can say, good also during this period because the heavy truck continued to work for transport of materials and food, so that was less impacted. But I think that we can recover also on gasoline.

Okay. Regarding supply chain and disruption due to the pandemic, the pandemic is mostly affecting those activities that requires international support and mobilization, and therefore, we are suspending our phasing, most of our drilling and especially deepwater drilling activities. While on production operation, always with the aim to protect our people, while granting production continuity, we have been able to maintain production level, thanks to the fact that we have a prevalence of local workforce in our producing countries. So we are not affected by the blockage of traveling between countries.

Neste Oyj Q1 2020 Earnings call (4/24)

The warm weather and the COVID-19 epidemic substantially limited air and road traffic and this had an increasingly negative impact on product demand towards the end of the quarter. The Marketing & Services segment had a challenging first quarter in a very competitive market, and its result was impacted by lower sales volumes caused by substantially lower demand due, as said, to the weather and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Kinder Morgan Q1 2020 Earnings call (4/22)

Our gathering and processing assets will be negatively impacted by reduced producer activity. We are seeing increased interest, however, in our Haynesville assets, but that will take some time to ramp up. Overall, reduced producer activity negatively impacts this part of our business. As a reminder, gathering and processing, when you put the gas portion of it together with the products portion, is only about 10% of our budgeted segment EBDA.

Koninklijke Vopak NV Q1 2020 Earnings call (4/21)

The COVID-19 virus is having its impact on the market in which we operate. Global oil demand is in a downward spiral with significant demand restriction for many oil products such as jet fuel and gasoline. This leads to increased interest in oil storage globally. We see this in the hubs and other locations such as Canada and Panama. The effect of this is expected to gradually materialize as from the second quarter of 2020.

Haliburton Co Q1 2020 Earnings call (4/20)

Right now, North American E&P CapEx is trending towards a 50% reduction year-on-year in 2020. Since mid-March, U.S. land rig count has fallen 34% and is expected to continue declining from here. With prices at the wellhead near cash breakeven levels, we expect activity in North America land to further deteriorate during the second quarter and remain depressed through year-end, impacting all basins. Our outlook for the international markets has also changed. In addition to the collapse of oil prices, the industry is dealing with activity interruptions due to the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 had minimal impact on our international operations in the first quarter, but the second quarter will be different. We are seeing restricted movements within countries, quarantine requirements for rotational staff, logistics delay due to third-party personnel reductions and in some cases, entire country closures. Different markets are impacted differently, and this will lead to significant operational disruptions at least through the second quarter.

Q: I think last time we had a discussion, you indicated maybe the digital dynamic might not have a very near term — big near-term impact on revenue generation. So I just wanted to kind of touch base again. And given all the disruption that’s happened in the industry, given the commentary you made about a number of different discussions now being had and rethinking and reshaping the industry going forward, any updates or any thoughts on how much revenue digital could potentially push, whether it’s this year or whether you think it’s going to get accelerated as we go into next year as well?

A: Well, look, I think it accelerates — as I had described, I don’t think any revenue is accelerating at this very moment, albeit we are seeing a meaningful uptick in new users just over the last 30 days, as I said, in our iEnergy cloud, which has been meaningful. But overall, hard to describe revenues up in a meaningful way at least right now. That said, though, the ability to reduce cost by implementing these things is in the here and the now. I mean that is like here and the now this week having an impact. And so I think the ability, for example, on our integrated projects as we — this accelerates the acceptance by customers and the demand even by our own people to implement those tools, that de-manned rigs work remotely. All of those tools that we’ve been building over the last several years, we’ve implemented them or we’ve talked about them in the North Sea. With Aker BP and some others, we’ve been quite vocal, but we’ve done it with many others. So it’s hard to look at that set of tools today and not ask yourself, “Why am I not using those tools today?” And so I’m really encouraged about the pace we will see. I think we’ll actually see its impact will be still over the next few years as that continues to grow. But the existing tools get adopted quite quickly, I think, in this market.

Schlumberger NV Q1 2020 Earnings call (4/17)

However, toward the end of the quarter, activity started to decline in several basins due to the unprecedented drop in oil price and the increasing challenge posed by COVID-19. The most severe impact was in North America land, where customers were fast to react with a sharp 17% cut in rig count. Now going forward, you are totally right, and I think we have accelerated our remote operation and automation of some of our operations. In the month of March, we had more than 60%, 6-0, 60% of our drilling operation that have — that were using remote operation. So we have been exploiting with success the remote operation by reducing the footprint of our people on the rig site, having very positive impact on HSE, helping and supporting them remotely with an impact on service quality and providing efficiency and cost that benefit both the operator and ourselves. So this will continue, will accelerate. We have an excellent platform internally, and we have our DELFI platform externally where our clients are starting to adopt drilling, in particular, remote operation and automation. This is accelerating as we speak. Another example, Chase, is as we were deploying DELFI, and you may have seen that into the earnings press release for Woodside, we were getting the request to accelerate due to the COVID[-19] (added by company after the call) restriction, accelerate the deployment of the cloud-based infrastructure so that the asset team, the geoscientists of our customer could work from home and have the full access to their data and to their powerful geoscience application. We’re able to deploy and accelerate and with great satisfaction and success, and this has been used as an example going forward. So yes, it will be a differentiation that we’ll use going forward.

Royal Dutch Shell Annual Briefing (4/16)

Q: Can you talk about whether the recent movements in the oil price has changed the way Shell thinks about the risk/reward profile of the investments in renewables or low carbon businesses compared to the upstream business? That’s the first question, Ben. Let me read the second question for you as well. The second one is how does the acceleration of the reduction in carbon ambition change — carbon ambition changes Shell’s capital allocation process. Can you just talk through the economics of hydrogen and what you need for commerciality?

A: Yes. Thank you, Lydia. Thanks, first of all, for the acknowledgment and 2 really good questions. It — of course, if you look at what is happening in oil markets, it is, of course, an overused word, but it is unprecedented. And of course, we have to understand what’s going to happen next. Very hard, by the way because nobody, of course, has ever dealt with situation like this in living memory and it’s, therefore, quite a challenge to predict how oil markets will play out. A lot of scenario testing, a lot of resilience testing, et cetera, is going to be needed at this point in time. Some people say, well, this is what’s going to happen when we finally do the energy transition. I think that is probably a little bit overdone. I do not think the energy and certainly do not hope the energy transition will be as disruptive as this COVID-19 crisis is. But it does indeed show that — well, first of all, that even a reduction of 20% in energy use comes with a massive change in how society looks like and what it is we can and can’t do. So in a way, it does show how difficult it is to make this energy transition, but yes, I think it’s fair enough. We will see probably changed attitudes, changed ways of working, maybe a certain economic downturn following from this that will all have their effects on energy markets. And with it, of course, in oil and gas markets.

ConocoPhillips Conference Call (4/05)

Q:My first question is around the production that is being ramped down in May, both in the Lower 48 and Canada. Perhaps can you give us a sense of what the level of confidence you have in bringing that production back online to full capacity or when the timing is right, perhaps from a geology or an engineering point of view, please?

A: Yes. Very confident. We don’t — we’re not going to shut-in anywhere that we see any risk of reservoir damage or anything that’s going to impair our ability to bring it back. You can see, in Surmont, for example, we’re taking the rates, as Don said, down to the lowest level that we can while still providing enough heat and pressure to the reservoir and so that we don’t damage the reservoir. The rest of the deferrals are in the unconventional reservoirs, and we don’t expect any issues in there at all. In fact, we expect to see quite significant flush production when those wells come back on. So no issues.

Santos Ltd Analyst/Investor Transcript (4/2)

The unrelenting focus of Kevin and his team on our strategy to transform, build and grow around our core assets, together with our disciplined low-cost, cash-generative operating model, has positioned the company well to whether the unprecedented market conditions we are currently experiencing. As I said earlier, in response to the challenges of the COVID-19, combined with low oil prices, we acted decisively on the 23rd of March to protect our cash flow and our balance sheet. We announced cost cuts in 2020 of $550 million in capital expenditures and $50 million in operating expenditure. And we’ll continue to review this as we need to over the coming months. Right now, we need to keep production going to maintain our revenues and the revenues that flow to governments so that they can fund the economic relief that’s going to be required during this crisis for households and businesses across the nation.

Imperial Oil Ltd 8K (3/31)

Although Imperial is in a lower capital spending period in the cycle, the company has carefully assessed its 2020 plans and has identified opportunities to reduce spending in the near-term while maintaining focus on the lowest capital intensity, highest value-creating opportunities. Spending will focus on ensuring ongoing safe and reliable operation of Imperial’s assets, and paced investments to continue work on key growth-related projects at a level reflective of the current challenges presented by COVID-19 and the business environment. These deferrals have resulted in an updated capital outlook of $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion for 2020, a $500 million (30 percent) reduction compared to original guidance of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion.

In addition to this reduction in capital spending, Imperial has identified opportunities to reduce operating expenses by $500 million compared to 2019 levels. As part of this exercise, the company has identified opportunities that drive efficiency, effectiveness and a degree of pacing due to COVID-19 impacts while ensuring ongoing safe and reliable operations.

As Imperial continues to assess the impact of COVID-19, scope reductions have been identified for the planned second-quarter turnaround at our Sarnia facility, and a planned coker turnaround at Syncrude has been deferred until the third quarter. The company continues to assess other turnaround activity across the business. More broadly, the impact of COVID-19 and the current business environment on demand is expected to result in negative impacts on Imperial’s Upstream production, and Downstream refinery utilization and product sales over the near term. While the magnitude of these impacts is uncertain, our scenario planning approach is ensuring we are prepared and positioned to respond to a broad range of potential outcomes.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras Conference Transcript (3/26)

Answer – Carla Dodsworth Albano Miller: Thank you, Roberto. The first question that we received comes from Rodolfo De Angele from JPMorgan.

It’s about new production curve. So with the lower CapEx for 2020, how do you expect to see production curves in 2020 and in the following years, 2021 to 2024? Capo?

Answer – Carlos Alberto Pereira de Oliveira: Rodolfo, about this question, what I can tell you is I think that’s too soon to talk about what is going to be the production curves because we are really living the effects of the COVID-29 (sic) [COVID-19] and also the effect of the reduction on demand and prices. And so what we are seeing is that we need some more time to stabilize the whole process and see what’s going to happen in the future.

If we have the same situation that we are living today, and in fact, what we see is that every day is a new day, every day, the world changes completely. But if things stay in the same, I should say, the same level of the effect of the COVID-29 — COVID-19 and also about the lack of demand and price, maybe we could — I think that I can tell you that the figure for 2020, we don’t have a new target for this right now. So if things continue like that, maybe it’s a possibility that we could reach this figure considering the 2.7%, plus or minus 2.5%. But it’s too soon, I think that we should wait a little bit more to see what are going to be the effects, the real effects. And because everything is changing every day, so it’s too soon to tell you about what is the impact on the curve, the production curve for the — even for the year 2020.

Answer – Carla Dodsworth Albano Miller: Thank you, Capo. The second question from Rodolfo, it’s for Anelise. It’s regarding refining. So do you plan to shut down refineries as well or to lower operating rates? Are there maintenance shutdowns that will be done earlier than originally planned?

Answer – Anelise Quintão Lara: Rodolfo, in fact, what we see, we saw these last days and weeks is that our refining operating rate is around 74%. If you consider the average of 2019, was 79%. We have already a reduction in our refining operated — operating rates nowadays. But we foresee a reduction in the demand of oil products. And probably, we’ll have some reduction in this operating rate for April and May, especially these next 2 months. But nowadays, as I said, it’s around 74%.

We are, in fact, postponing our maintenance shutdowns because we don’t want to have many people together in the refinery. We want to reduce the number of employees working during this crisis in order to avoid contamination and the effects of the coronavirus. So with the maintenance, we have lots of people working in the — inside refinery and this is not good for the moment. So we are postponing some of this maintenance. And this is alongside, I would say, together with the evaluation of the market conditions in terms of oil products demand.

Woodside Petroleum Ltd Conference Transcript (3/26)

Question – James Byrne: Got it. Okay. On your outlook for LNG. I cast my mind back to your 2018 investor briefing day. You had a chart there on the demand forecast by region and by far and away, the largest region there was other Asia. The — all of the small, emerging markets, ex China, that are small in isolation but large in aggregate. I’m wondering if you think that there is any permanent demand destruction as a result of coronavirus, either from much higher U.S. dollar funding costs to build the new infrastructure or perhaps lower cost of fuel oil in generation that may further implicate your ability to market volume in the medium term, noting you mentioned on the supplier side Qatar and potentially Novatek placing volume in the short term?

Answer – Peter John Coleman: Look, that’s a difficult one to answer sitting here at the end of March, to be quite frank with you. Obviously, it’s a question we’ve got to look at as we go through the year. We — with respect to the demand, we’ve got to be a term optimist. We think the fundamentals on the demand is still there. And so we’re not predicting permanent demand disruption at the moment. In fact, as you know, low prices often trigger even more demand.

Now there’s obviously some issues in the market. At the moment, India has closed its ports, so that’s creating some disruption there, but we expect that will come back quickly. The U.S. dollar — the U.S. will work very, very hard to drive down the U.S. dollar. The Fed will do that. The Fed’s already said it’s going to do that. The U.S. doesn’t want a strong U.S. dollar. It benefits obviously during crisis but when things get back to normal, the strong U.S. dollar is not good for the U.S. with respect to its own trade balances.

So I expect through whatever mechanism, quantitative easing, probably the most likely one because it’s only lever that they have at the moment is that the Fed’s going to try really, really hard to get that U.S. dollar down. So I don’t see that we (inaudible) strengthening being in the marketplace. So look, it’s going to come back. It’ll be in fits and starts, we’re just not sure where that’s going.

On fuel oil and so forth, all I would say is climate change is not going away. It’s real. And so substitution of other fossil fuels into the energy mix, I think it’s just unsustainable no matter what the pricing point is. There might be some short-term switching, but certainly not long-term structural build out in that area.

And I can assure you, as we’ve been talking to investors recently, the ESG guys haven’t forgot about the long term. So this short-term perturbation in the market that we’re all dealing with, those responsible, from an ESG point of view, are still very much focused on the long-term resilience of business. So that it’s really hard (inaudible) was just a bit foggy for me at the moment, to be quite frank.

PetroChina Co Ltd Full Year Earnings Call (3/26)

In face of the low oil price challenge, coupled with COVID-19, we are carrying out quality and efficiency enhancement across the board. Dealing with market fluctuation head on, we optimize production and operation, adjust production capacity building pace, optimize resources allocation and product mix, make more efforts in marketing, improve internal management and strictly control costs and expenditure. We will pay high attention to the changes in the capital market, intensify corporate value management, enhance corporate growth potential and value-creation capability and bring bigger value for our shareholders.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP Conference Transcript (3/26)

So with that in mind, I’ll start just first of all on Page 4, with regards just a couple updates on our response to COVID-19. First of all, all of our facilities are fully operational at this time. We, a couple of weeks ago, quickly implemented a centralized organizational response team that’s really focused on managing any operational or personnel issues we may have from a central location. So that is going well. The vast majority of our office personnel are now working from home effectively, and obviously, that’s going to continue for a little while. We have quarantined all employees that have been potentially exposed for 14 days, or will, if they’re exposed in the future. And we’re in the tail end of the process of that on a number of employees, but that’s been going well. We’ve implemented separation plans and health checks for our operations control room. We are now operating on 2 separate control rooms just from a safety standpoint, and also to give us redundancy if, for some reason, we need to close one control room, we’ve got a second off-site control room that’s active. So that’s in place today. Also at our critical facilities, our hub facilities, we’ve implemented health checks for employees arriving to work just as a further verification that we are keeping our employees safe and not exposed. And we have done quite a bit of work on contingency plans in case we do have a personnel issue, and that’s similar to what we do for strike contingency planning. So all of those are in place and, as of today, functioning very well.

CNOOC LTD Earnings Call Transcript (3/25)

Last but not least, we would like to discuss how do we respond to future challenges. At the beginning of 2020, the COVID-19 and the sharp decrease of oil prices have brought challenges to company’s operations. We will closely monitor the trend of international crude oil market and changes in macroeconomic environment, conduct in-depth research, timely formulate and take countermeasures and to strive to minimize the effect of those events. To respond to the challenge, we were focused on high-quality development, pursue profitable reserves and production, control the investment pace, adhere to most stringent cost control and maintain healthy cash flow.

Williams Companies Inc Conference Transcript (3/25)

Answer – Gabriel Philip Moreen: And then also, I’m wondering if you’re starting to hearing from any of your contracting crews on your projects about working limitations in terms of needing to space out crews. Is that something you’re anticipating it might have an impact on how that length might be managed?

Answer – Micheal G. Dunn: Yes, this is Micheal. We’ve been pretty proactive with our contractors. And the nature of the pipeline business is such that they are pretty spread out, anyway. And so — but we’re making sure that, like our large gatherings in the morning don’t occur, where they would typically have a safety discussion. They’re doing that remotely and with distance, and so we’re making sure that we’re following all the proper guidelines from a distancing standpoint. Our contractors are putting in and have already put in separate trailers, separate facilities for their crews, and segregating the crews even amongst our facility sites where they’re working, and so that they’re not working in large groups and not interacting as much with our operations teams, especially where we’re working real hard to keep our operations team segregated from contractors coming into the facilities. And we’re doing a really good job with that. We’ve segregated, on the operations side, our control room, and we have multiple desks in — within certain control rooms, and we’ve segregated those desks out so our controllers are not working in the same rooms with each other as well. And just really dispersing our employees across the footprint so that we can maintain the continuity of operations. But so far, we’ve seen nothing from our contractors that indicates that they’re slowing down work in regard to the coronavirus situation.

Chevron Corporation 8K (3/24)

Future Financial and Operating Results

Recent decreases in commodity prices, as a result of COVID-19 impacts on reduced demand and geopolitical pressures increasing supply, are expected to negatively impact the company’s future financial and operating results. Due to the rapidly changing environment, there continues to be uncertainty and unpredictability around the impact on our results, which could be material. We expect to provide further updates in the company’s first quarter 2020 earnings press release, earnings call, and Form 10-Q.

Phillips 66 Business Update Call (3/24)

Answer – Matthew Robert Lovseth Blair: Got it. Okay. And then any comments on the export market for products? Are you able to shift barrels out of the U.S. and over to Latin America at attractive rates?

Answer – Greg C. Garland: So we continue to ship products out of the U.S. Latin America has been the biggest thing for products for the U.S. for a long time now. As I mentioned earlier, though, we’re getting questions from our Latin American customers asking us, can we back off on some of the term deals that they have or some term purchase that they have from us. So you can start seeing that the coronavirus is moving in that direction. And there, they have the same concerns we do about lower demand and too much product. So more to come, we’ll see how the coronavirus affects Latin America over the next few weeks.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA – Petrobas 6K (3/20)

Petrobras on sale of refineries

Rio de Janeiro, March 20, 2020 –  Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras, following up on the releases dated November 22, 2019, December 20, 2019, and January 31, 2020, informs that, due to the prevention measures to the coronavirus, it will postpone the receipt of binding offers in the processes of divestment in downstream and its respective logistic assets, in order to ensure the effective performance of due diligence by potential buyers.

The processes include the refineries Abreu e Lima (RNEST) in Pernambuco, Landulpho Alves (RLAM) in Bahia, Presidente Getúlio Vargas (REPAR) and the Shale Industrialization Unit (SIX) in Paraná, Alberto Pasqualini (REFAP) in Rio Grande do Sul, Gabriel Passos Refinery (REGAP) in Minas Gerais, Isaac Sabbá Refinery (REMAN) in Amazonas, Lubrificantes e Derivados de Petróleo do Nordeste (LUBNOR) in Ceará.

Petrobras reinforces its commitment to the project to sell the downstream assets and their respective logistic assets, as specified in its 2020-2024 Strategic Plan.

This transaction is in line with the company’s portfolio optimization and improvement of capital allocation, aiming at creating value for our shareholders.

Imperial 8K (3/19)

Over its long history, Imperial has faced numerous periods of low global crude oil prices. In the current challenging market environment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and commodity price decreases, the company continues to demonstrate its long-standing commitment to financial strength, capital and operating expense discipline and maximizing long-term shareholder value.

Imperial is currently in a low capital investment period; however, the company is currently reviewing spending plans in an effort to identify further efficiency opportunities.

We are naturally at a lower spending period in the cycle, with the majority of our capital being focused on maintaining safe, reliable and productive operations,” said Brad Corson, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Imperial. “We will continue to closely monitor and have flexibility in our plans to respond to market conditions, and rigorously examine operating costs and capital investments to maximize long term shareholder value in whatever business environment we operate.”

Imperial is taking proactive and preventative measures to protect the health and safety of our workforce and do its part to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus in the community. The company is monitoring the situation closely and has implemented comprehensive plans across its operations.

We remain focused on maintaining safe and reliable operations and on the health and wellbeing of our employees and their families, business partners and local communities during this difficult time. We are committed to doing our part to reduce the impact of COVID-19 in our communities, said Corson.

ConocoPhillips Conference Transcript (3/18)

Answer – Muhammed Ghulam: So given your status as a global player in the oil markets, have you guys seen coronavirus impact demand for your customer specifically? Can you provide any insight into where you’ve seen the greatest impacts?

Answer – Ryan Lance: The greatest impacts on — did you say on customers, Muhammed?

Answer – Muhammed Ghulam: Yes. Have you guys been — have your customers been — have there been any impact delivering crude or them being able to take the crude, given how much demand has fallen in some regions?

Answer – Ryan Lance: Okay. Thank you. I’ll — Don can handle that. He runs our commercial organization.

Answer – Don Wallette: Yes. So far, we haven’t seen any impacts on the marketing side. We’ve got LNG sales into Japan and China, and we haven’t had any force majeure notices or request to reduce deliveries yet.

Saudi Aramco Earnings Call (3/16)

I would now like to discuss our future capital spending plans, which demonstrate both our discipline and flexibility. With our strong financial framework and a disciplined CapEx governance process, we are able to successfully invest to meet the vision and strategies that Amin described earlier. We have launched dynamic CapEx review in response to prevailing market conditions. As you may remember, at the time of the IPO, we indicated that our expected 2020 organic CapEx to be in the $35 billion to $40 billion range. We have now optimized our spending plan, and I can today confirm that our 2020 organic CapEx is expected to be in the $25 billion to $30 billion range. As yet, no one knows the precise impact on economic activity and energy demand from the coronavirus outbreak, especially in the longer term, and additional efficiencies may be required. Our CapEx budget for 2021 and beyond are therefore currently under review. Furthermore, for the longer term, we are examining plans to increase our maximum sustainable capacity to 13 million barrels per day. It is worth highlighting that our low-cost structure is a great advantage in facing the current challenge. Our upstream lifting cost in 2019 was only $2.8 per BOE produced. And our upstream capital expenditures only $4.7 per BOE produced, both being the lowest in the industry. Given our low-cost, our flexibility and our low sustaining Capex, the company can sustain a low breakeven oil price.

Weatherford International PLC Earnings Call (3/16)

Now let me discuss the year ahead. The industry was challenged throughout 2019. And clearly, 2020 will be even tougher. The impact of a weakening demand environment for hydrocarbons due to the COVID-19 pandemic has been exacerbated by plants from OPEC members and their partners to introduce significant additional supply into the market. As a result, our North American customers have recently made deeper reductions to their capital spending, resulting in weaker demand for oilfield products and services.

Moreover, there are risks associated with potential operation and supply chain disruption, travel restrictions, government enacted measures that may negatively impact our ability to operate. We have developed plans to mitigate any disruptions, and we continue to closely monitor the situation and will adjust as required. Given these developments, we are retracting the guidance of the company prepared in September of 2019 for the full year 2020 and onwards.

CMS Energy Corp Form 8-K (3/16)

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (“Covid-19”) is currently impacting countries, communities, supply chains and markets. To date, Covid-19 has not had a material impact on CMS Energy nor Consumers. However, CMS Energy and Consumers cannot predict whether Covid-19 will have a material impact on CMS Energy’s and Consumers’ liquidity, financial condition, and results of operations.

Neste Corporation Analyst/Investor Transcript (3/12)

Well, let me then move to our focus areas in 2020. And I think it’s very important to note that the demand for waste and residue has been growing. We are looking at a tightening market in 2019. So the efforts in this area are a very important driver for our competitiveness. If I first reflect a little bit on what has happened in the market, already in early 2019, we started observing a trend where the prices for both animal fats, used cooking oil, went on an increasing trend. In the second half of the year, also, for example, palm oil clearly showed an increasing trend. If I now look at what has happened in 2020, I can see that the increasing trend has clearly continued for waste and residues such as animal fats and used cooking oils. For palm oil, in the very recent history, we have seen a clear decrease, which follows from the overall situation around the macro — the coronavirus. So in the last 2 months, we have seen actually a 25% drop for palm oil. But still, we see a tight market for animal fat and used cooking oil. So that underlines that our efforts in this area continue to be extremely important.

So what are the most important areas in 2020? First of all, it’s continued organic growth in existing markets. So we continue looking at opening new terminals, making our supply chain more efficient. And examples would be, for example, China or the United States. Another area is, again, geographic expansion. We do see opportunities in areas such as South America and also Eastern Europe, where we intend to go closer to our partners. And finally, we keep working on M&A opportunities to strengthen our strategic positioning in the most important supply chains. And here, I’m pleased to give you an example. We were just able this week to announce that we have acquired a used cooking oil collector in the United States called Mahoney Environmental. And I would be happy to give you some background on this acquisition as it’s a great example of that work we are doing on the acquisition side.

OMV AG M&A Special Transcript (3/12)

Answer – Thomas Yoichi Adolff: A few questions please. Just kind of looking at 2020 and maybe you can provide some guidance in terms of profitability, et cetera. I mean, when we look at Shell and Exxon’s chemical earnings in the fourth quarter, they were both loss-making. So perhaps you can comment about your expectations for 2020 and then how that compares to 2019 as it relates to the Borealis business.

And then just secondly, just going back to your prior comments on M&A. You said M&A is pretty much done and dusted. We know we’re confident about the outlook to 2025, et cetera. And how — this deal came kind of out of the blue. So perhaps you can talk about how this deal came about. And also what it means for your plans as it relates to Indonesia. You’re looking at building a chemical plant in Indonesia.

Answer – Rainer Seele: All right. Thomas, 2020 guidance is a little bit difficult. Everybody is looking into this crystal ball, talking about a virus infection, playing the psychology in the trading markets. So that’s a little bit difficult to give you a clear guidance for the full year in comparison to 2019 because the environment in 2019 was a little bit different. But I would like to give you a little bit of an idea what we do see right now in the market and how we started into the year. Well, if you look into the market, definitely the oil and gas prices are going to challenge our Upstream business in 2020. If I look what has been reported in the newspaper so far, I don’t see a quick change of this trend. So that the oil and gas prices will go up quickly. But there are some scenarios which would tell me also an upside in Upstream. I don’t want to exclude this, but I think Upstream business in 2020 will be more a challenging year than one of these most prosperous years we have in our history. In terms of the Downstream business, the picture looks different. The picture looks very positive as we speak about our petchem business in Europe. We have seen as a reaction of the lower feedstock prices, especially the lower naphtha prices. We have seen now, in these days, very high petchem margins in the markets over here in Europe. The Asian markets, a bit more challenging as the corona is more playing down China, but we see first signs of a slow recovery, especially in China.

When it comes to the refining margins, I just would like to ask you to look into the refining margins development. We are enjoying now a real good refining margin in fire environment in Europe as well as also in Asia. So the only product to make that story not too positive, the product which is really a challenge, is jet in these days. You see that not only the airline industry is struggling, the refineries as well. So in 2020, the picture is, as we speak about the first months, and as we speak about the current development, it’s a mixed one. It’s a challenge for Upstream and it’s a positive development so far in Downstream, especially, we do see a good business in petrochemicals in these days. It may have to do with our strong presence, we do have in Europe that other competitors might tell you a different story. When it comes to Indonesia, a clear message. This project has a big question mark in our discussion in our Board at the moment.

Empresas Copec SA Earnings Call (3/12)

Similar situation for Argentina, still some volatility there. We are seeing a good outlook in general for panels, not so much for sawn timber. Volatility in political terms also in terms of exchange rates, and that could affect our margins, again, when measured in U.S. dollars.

In Chile, we had a first few months of good sales in general. We are still, of course, subject to the uncertainties that we have during the social situation in Chile. But so far, during the first month, we’ve seen good sales.

Asia is basically affected by the uncertainty related to the coronavirus. However, we are seeing some signs of increased demand for lumber in some markets. And in Europe, some initial positive signals related to prices basically, but once again, subject to how the coronavirus unfolds.

Same thing in the Middle East, signs of stability and in general, good signals, but in this particular area, of course, subject to the development of the virus and those of the oil market.

Moving on to the fuel division, which we are detailing as from Page 21. We’re taking a look here at Copec in consolidated terms, so it includes Copec, Terpel and Mapco essentially. You can see here that the EBITDA in local currency went up by 10%, which is a very good figure for the quarter. Accumulated is 80.4% for the year. So EBITDA measured in local currency is 8.4% up for the year as a whole. So all in all, a good year for our fuel division when measured in local currencies.

Lukoil 2019 Full Year Earnings Presentation (3/11/20)

Question – Ildar Davletshin: I have a couple of those. And let me ask those upfront. My first question relates to your — or the OPEC+ deal, which failed to be extended. What’s your attitude to that as a private company, given that some of the members of OPEC, say, Saudi Arabia, for once, have decided to increase their production output, would you have to follow suit as well should all the industry in Russia decide to hike production? Or would you have flexibility in your strategy? My second question relates to your share buyback program. You mentioned $3 billion in total. Would that cover up to 2022? And whether you’re going to provide any more insight to that?

Answer – Vagit Usufovich Alekperov: My first answer is on the OPEC+ transaction. Mr. Alekperov speaking. Myself and LUKOIL stood for the deal to be extended, but decisions are made at the very senior level. Tomorrow, I’m going to participate in a meeting with a minister, and I’m going to deliver our opinion. I’m convinced that in an environment like today with the coronavirus present and problems in the — with Chinese economy, the oil-producing countries must coordinate their efforts. So hopefully, on March 15, the OPEC committee is going to meet and find a mutually acceptable solution that would enable stabilizing the prices and the whole market.

As far as your second question on buying back is concerned, we are not entitled to comment on that. So at this point, I wouldn’t dwell in detail upon the future transactions.

Exxon Mobil Corp at Investor Day (3/5/20)

You all know, today, oversupply is driven by industry investments and some of these growth markets have exceeded demand, and we’ve got a very challenging short-term margin environment, which is now being compounded by the growing economic impact to the coronavirus that we’re seeing around the world. And that is creating a lot of uncertainty, particularly in the near term, and I would say, particularly here in Wall Street. However, the longer-term horizon is clear. And today, our focus is on that horizon and the future. And I’m providing all of you an update on the progress we’ve made on our long-term plans to structurally grow our earnings and cash flow while improving returns.

Kinder Morgan Inc at Credit Suisse Summit (3/4/20)

Question – Spiro Michael Dounis: Yes. So thanks, Dax. So I’ll kick it off here. Just thinking about the landscape and really what’s changed, it feels like forever since your Analyst Day at this point. I can’t believe it’s only been a little over a month. And of course, lot’s changed since then. So just wondering if you can give us a sense if you guys have already started to augment your strategy before, as you said after the year? And if you’ve seen any sort of demand or supply responses so far to kind of what’s been happening vis-à-vis coronavirus and just the market [sell-off]?

Answer – Dax A. Sanders: Yes, that’s a good question. I mean, obviously, it’s incredibly early. I mean we’re sort of a week into — kind of 1.5 week half into the macro response on — from a coronavirus perspective. I mean, in terms of like real-time bleeding stuff, we haven’t yet. In terms of — we’re obviously — we, in large part, are a service provider to our customers, be they existing customers, be they future customers for anchoring additional capacity and we’re in constant contact with them.

Obviously, the broader equity — the broader risk markets have been volatile and energy markets within the broader risk markets have been especially volatile, even more volatile, which there’s no doubt, I’m sure our customers and people are looking at. And so that certainly could affect conversations. But just to reiterate, so many of the customers we have, which I talked about earlier, are demand pull, they’re LDCs, they are people that are ultimate consumers and users of gas. They’re tied to people heating their homes, people using power, things like that. And so in terms of what we do on an everyday daily basis, we haven’t changed much. But you’re right, it seems like an eternity since the Analyst Day.

Chevron Corp Security Analyst Meeting (3/3/20)

Moving to the macro. First, let me address the short-term impacts of the coronavirus. No doubt, demand for our products is down. Our focus is on protecting our people and maintaining safe operations. This time, our operations and supply chains are functioning normally. We’re taking all appropriate precautions to keep it this way, but it’s a fast-changing situation.

Moving to the long term, the demand outlook for our core commodities remain strong. Over the next 20 years, the world’s population is expected to grow from 7.8 million (sic) [7.8 billion] people to more than 9 billion. The world will continue to need more energy to support a growing population and an improving quality of life.

The chart on the left shows IEA’s stated policy scenario, an independent view of demand that accounts for known and expected changes in both policy and technology. Total energy demand is projected to grow by nearly 25%, and oil and gas by a similar amount, representing roughly the same share of the total energy mix in 2040 as it does today. Even in IEA’s sustainable development scenario, which is Paris-aligned, oil and gas is still expected to be about half of total energy demand. And as you see on the right, the underlying decline in supply requires significant investment to replace 80% of production from existing fields by 2040 and also meet the growing demand for liquids. Any way you look at it, the world will need more of what we produce, not less.

Valero Energy Corp at Credit Suisse Energy Summit (3/2/20)

Answer – Joseph W. Gorder: Yes. I mean it’s interesting. So — I’d give you some background. I’ve heard that Dr. Fauci — I was at a business council meeting a week ago in D.C., and he got up and spoke. What we’re dealing with is a kind of a strain of flu, right, with the coronavirus. It’s spreading. It’s gotten hyped. We were talking about in the airplane, do you think it would have been this hyped if we weren’t in an election cycle with a strong economy and somebody trying to make this an issue, right? So who knows? But based on what I see, if the treatment right now is wash your hands with soap and water, try to stay healthy, and I heard on the news a guy’s treatment for — is coronavirus was Gatorade for 3 days, and he was okay. I mean this is one of those things that, could it be serious? I guess it could. It’s more the Chinese impact than anything. We’re all trying to figure out, is the data we’re getting out of China good and real? Is it going to last a long time? Is it going to force their economy to screech to a halt?

The U.S. economy right now is strong. And as Lane mentioned, we’re really not seeing any big impact on demand for our products. And the products that were — except for jet.

Answer – R. Lane Riggs: Except for jet.

Answer – Joseph W. Gorder: And the products that we’re moving into Mexico, there doesn’t seem to be any impact there and so on. So I wouldn’t anticipate that we’re going to see a recession.

The question is how long does this last. And seasonally, does it phase out? And that’s why, frankly, we are looking at this as an opportunity, okay? This whole market sold off. I mean personally, I’m looking at this as an opportunity. What should I be buying out there because people have gotten beaten down. And Valero is no different this week than we were 2 weeks ago. Our operation is absolutely no different. And we have the same people in place, and they’re running the business, and we’re making money. And so anyway, it’s a — one of these deals, it’s a little bit like we had at the end of ’18 when we had the IMO hype and then it just started selling off so hard. You’d love to be able to come out and say something. I’d love to come out and say, you guys, don’t worry about this, it’s not an issue, everything is going to be okay. And I guess that’s kind of what I’m doing. But I’m not a doc, and so I can’t speak to it directly. But I think it’s — my guess is this is going to be short lived, it’s overhyped, sure. Might I get coronavirus? Could well happen. Is it going to kill me? Well, history with — that we’ve seen so far with this virus would say, no, it’s not. So anyway, I hope next year, you’re sitting in that same chair, and I hope I’m here to say we are right again, okay?

Occidental Petroleum Inc. (2/28/20)

Question – Paul Benedict Sankey: Understood. And just to be clear, could you talk a bit more about your flexibility to cut? I mean, at the moment, you’re growing, obviously, you could conceivably go growth flat or growth negative. And if you could just talk about some of your flexibility because it is important for people.

Secondly and finally, could you just reiterate on the divestment program, because I think that’s the other very important thing to people? Obviously, you’ve gone through it line-by-line. But to be clear, you’re reiterating that by midyear, you will have done the $15 billion. Is that what I’ve read or already said, sorry, then seen re-reported online?

Answer – Vicki A. Hollub: I’ll address the dividend first, and you’re right. We have built a scenario around currently — certainly, the environment we’re in. We don’t know how long the — this coronavirus impact will last. So what we’ve done is we’ve actually initiated our business continuity plans. And we started to look at various scenarios and what we would do in a situation where this looks to be lower for longer. So we have the flexibility to first lower our growth to no growth. Beyond that, we have the flexibility to go even lower than that and still maintain our production.

So — and beyond that, we — I think we’ve said in the past that because of the high-growth assets that we have, we could actually allow our production to decline a little bit. If we’re in a scenario where the lower prices are being driven by an event, and this is that case. Because remember now, prices were $55 or above before the coronavirus hit. So we believe that this is not a scenario that’s going to last for so long that it would put us in a scenario that we can’t deal with it — with the situation that we have. So we’ve got those scenarios built in, and we’ve got timelines on when we would make decisions and pull triggers. So we’re well prepared to address this.

EOG Resources Inc. Earnings Call (2/28/20)

Question – Arun Jayaram: Yes, Bill, I was wondering if you could comment on how EOG is thinking about some of the demand impacts from the Coronavirus and the state of the oil market today? And what would be the company’s game plan if we did move into an environment where we have sustained oil price that caught in the low 40s for some bit of time?

Answer – William R. Thomas: Yes, Arun, certainly, this is a huge world event, and it’s developing. And we like everybody else is watching really daily the developments around the world, and we certainly hope and pray it’s a short-term event. But if it turned to a longer-term event, as Billy said, we’re in a fantastic position. Number 1, we got a great balance sheet, and we are committed to that, and that’s certainly been a strength of EOG for years and years and years. And so that puts us in a great position. And then we’re very flexible. We have an operational ability to adjust activity. And I think I’ll let Billy comment a little bit more about that, maybe some of the specifics.

Answer – Lloyd W. Helms: Yes, Arun. So the way I would add to that is we have the capability to adjust our rig activity and frac fleets down to really be in line with our sustainable CapEx or smart maintenance capital numbers. So we’ve set out a plan that really allows us to capture the highest performing rigs and frac crews in the market, but we have a tremendous amount of flexibility to adjust downward if we need to and so — and the same would apply to our allocation of capital to our infrastructure spend and other things. We have the same capability to adjust that downward if needed. So we’ll just be patient here and watch to see how the market unfolds and adjust accordingly.

Husky Energy Inc. Earnings Call (2/27/20)

Question – Benny Wong: Great. And just my final question, and it’s related really to Jeff’s prepared remarks. I think you mentioned you guys are looking at opportunities to further reduce capital. Just wondering if you’re able to provide some kind of early sense of what you’re looking at and sense of magnitude that we should be thinking about.

Answer – Robert J. Peabody: I’ll let Jeff, if he wants to add in a second. But let me just give you the kind of overall context. First, just, clearly, when we put out our guidance at the end of last year, we did actually reduce our CapEx guidance relative to what we had said we were going to do at the Investor Day earlier in that year. We took $100 million out of 2020 and $400 million out for next year, and kind of again indicating that we would expect that the run rate capital level will drop on a more sustaining basis beyond 2021. And so we’ve already baked that into the plan.

We are, of course, and I’m sure most of our colleague firms out there will be looking at capital programs again, given what we’re seeing with oil prices and margins, given the virus outbreak and all these things going on. So what I assure you is we’ve done enough to understand we do have more capital flexibility. There is more room that we can reduce CapEx this year. We haven’t finalized those plans. But our finger’s over the trigger, I guess you could say, if they’re required.

Continental Resources Inc. Earnings Call (2/27/20)

In 2020, we plan to take the stewardship of our shareholders’ assets to the next level through continued capital discipline and operational excellence. In this current price environment, we are moderating our near-term growth and keeping capital spend flat year-over-year. We see the oil and gas market as fundamentally oversupplied, with demand even further impacted by the coronavirus. By preserving our high-quality asset for a more structurally sound market, we are further enhancing future value for shareholders.

Continental Resources Inc. Earnings Call (2/27/20)

Question – Neal David Dingmann: That was my follow-up, Harold. Just overall, could you talk just a little on macro, your thoughts for the remainder of the year. If — I’m just kind of curious if you think that we’re going to be — continue to oversupply. And obviously, prices are going to impact like they are because of that. Do you see any reason to build DUCs or do anything like — as such that you all have in the past?

Answer – Harold G. Hamm: No, we don’t see any reason to build DUCs. We can answer that quickly. Let’s back up just a little bit. Before this coronavirus came about, we saw the market correcting very, very quickly as far as balance of supply and demand. Obviously, this is going to take something away from demand. We’ll have to see how broad that is given a few weeks here, but it just means cut back a little bit and wait and see how that plays out. Hopefully, it won’t get any worse than anybody expects, but who knows at this point? So overall, we see the market strengthening. Certainly, this is a reaction to what we’re seeing around the world right now.

TechnipFMC PLC Company Presentation (2/27/20)

 

TechnipFMC PLC Earnings Call (2/27/20)

l’d provide a bit of color on the operating cash flow guidance? I recognize some of that may be partly driven by cash advances that you might expect from clients, but I was just wondering if there’s also any underlying improvement that you’re seeing on your own working capital dynamics?

And then the second question I had is, on the back of what we’re seeing on the coronavirus, is there anything — I know you are working with certain Chinese errands. Is there any delays or any concerns at this point in time?

Answer – Douglas J. Pferdehirt: Okay. Sure. So thank you, Lillian. I’m going to make a comment around the coronavirus, and then I’m going to pass it to Catherine MacGregor who’s with me and as you know, is the CEO-elect, for Technip Energies and has been very involved and is currently the president of the GBU for Onshore/Offshore and is very involved in those projects. So I’ll let her add some additional color. And then Maryann will add some additional color around the cash flow comment that you made, which I appreciate you pointing it out. We’re very proud of the progress that we’ve made, the continued progress that we’ve made and a good progression and just remind you that we are a business of projects, and there will always be new projects coming in and projects closing out, and we are very pleased with the trend of our cash flow and the projections that we were able to share for 2020.

Just in terms of the coronavirus, look, first and foremost, we are deeply concerned for those who have been impacted. We are very much monitoring the situation and have put in place the appropriate actions to try to ensure the health and well-being of all the 37,000 women and men of our company and the many, many more contractors that we work with in the various sites and the various projects around the world. I’ll let Catherine, again, put some additional color around maybe an example or two of what’s actually happening on the projects.

Answer – Catherine MacGregor: Yes. Thank you. And indeed, we are, in light of the context of the coronavirus, working very actively, and I would say, collaboratively as well with our customers, but also with our subcontractors and with our partners to make sure that we take appropriate measures to really mitigate the impact on our projects. So what we’ve said is that the guidance that we gave you on Onshore/Offshore reflects what we see today as the impact of the coronavirus. So to give you a little bit of example of some of the things we’re doing, again, working very collaboratively with our customers and with our suppliers in one of our projects, for example, we were able to transfer some engineering hours from one of our Chinese-based subcontractor to one of our operating centers.

In another project, some orders were placed or were diverted from a Chinese supplier to European-based supplier. And we have a number of actions like this that we are able to take again working as proactively as possible with our partners, suppliers and customers.

 

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Earnings snapshot: FANG stocks (Q1 2020)

This week, FANG (Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Google) stocks reported earnings. Despite an unprecedented quarter fueled by COVID-19, FANG stocks walked away relative winners: AMZN is stepping on the gas while physical retail stores close; NFLX subscribers are surging while cord cutting accelerates; and FB & GOOG both benefit from the strength in DR while Brand pulls back (both were able to capitalize on a falling stock price by repurchasing stock.) 

Continue reading “Earnings snapshot: FANG stocks (Q1 2020)”

99 Companies that Continued (or Increased) Buybacks in March

Economies throughout the world have seen demand weaken with the spread of coronavirus throughout the globe. As Q1 earnings season continues and the reports of losses grows, so does the list of companies suspending buybacks.

Amidst market upheaval, 99 large publicly traded companies have reported buybacks continuing into March, with many even quickening the pace of repurchasing nearing quarter close. Which companies are still buying their stock? Take a look at the list we’ve compiled below:

 

Takeaways:

  • In March, the 99 companies identified repurchased a collective $33.21B with Alphabet, Apple and Microsoft accounting for 44.7% of the total buybacks with a combined $14.85B in buybacks in March
  • 23 companies repurchased >1% of market cap within the month of March with Masco Corp repurchasing 4.07% and Synchrony Financial repurchasing 3.6% of market cap, respectively
  • Delta, American Airlines and Southwest continued buybacks in March with American Airlines and Southwest repurchasing nearly $40M (representing .75% and 2.53% of their respective market caps) in March alone

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For this analysis we looked at 10Qs of companies with a $5B market cap or greater

 

Repurchases from Apple and Microsoft led the Information Technology sector to dominate in terms of the total dollar value of buybacks in March, with the IT sector accounting for 46% of total value. Together, Apple and Microsoft’s buybacks account for 72% of repurchase dollar value within IT.

 

While IT represents a larger share of the total dollar value of buybacks in March, companies in the Financial and Industrial sectors are buying back more often than their counterparts in other industries, with the sectors accounting for 18% of the buyback volume, respectively.

Company Sector Market Cap (in billions) March Shares Purchased March Share Price Amount Repurchased in March (in billions) % of Market Cap Repurchased in March (in billions)
Masco Corp Industrials $10.90 9,442,874 $46.94 $0.44 4.07%
Synchrony Financial Financials $12.30 16,817,253 $26.36 $0.44 3.60%
T Rowe Price Financials $26.30 7,100,681 $103.33 $0.73 2.79%
Southwest Airlines Industrials $15.90 7,879,876 $51.12 $0.40 2.53%
Cummins Industrials $24.10 3,500,000 $156.90 $0.55 2.28%
Cerner Corp Healthcare $21.10 5,139,129 $68.08 $0.35 1.66%
Service Corporation International Consumer Discretionary $6.70 2,290,566 $40.90 $0.09 1.40%
Zebra Technologies Information Technology $13.00 870,115 $208.33 $0.18 1.39%
Qualcomm Information Technology $88.20 15,279,000 $75.38 $1.15 1.31%
eBay Consumer Discretionary $31.70 12,665,693 $32.28 $0.41 1.29%
Cincinnati Financial Corp Financials $11.30 1,490,330 $97.44 $0.15 1.29%
First American Financial Financials $5.20 1,702,646 $38.64 $0.07 1.27%
Carlisle Cos Industrials $7.00 700,000 $124.63 $0.09 1.25%
Honeywell Industrials $100.40 7,729,326 $158.20 $1.22 1.22%
Graco Inc Industrials $7.40 2,064,830 $43.58 $0.09 1.22%
Omnicom Group Communication Services $13.10 2,333,890 $67.50 $0.16 1.20%
Lam Research Information Technology $37.10 1,568,000 $281.60 $0.44 1.19%
MSCI Financials $28.00 1,313,482 $248.79 $0.33 1.17%
Fidelity National Inc Financials $7.80 3,100,000 $28.40 $0.09 1.13%
Texas Instruments Industrials $106.50 10,925,981 $102.74 $1.12 1.05%
Halliburton Energy $9.70 7,388,038 $13.56 $0.10 1.03%
Celanese Corp Materials $10.20 1,229,670 $85.41 $0.11 1.03%
SEI Investments Financials $7.80 1,652,000 $46.62 $0.08 0.99%
Sherwin Williams Materials $48.70 925,000 $484.19 $0.45 0.92%
Idex Corp Industrials $11.90 851,823 $125.20 $0.11 0.90%
Cheneire Energy Energy $11.50 1,968,384 $50.80 $0.10 0.87%
CSX Corp Industrials $50.70 7,038,164 $61.49 $0.43 0.85%
Pultegroup Consumer Discretionary $7.60 2,098,385 $30.50 $0.06 0.84%
Apple Information Technology $1,000.30 31,158,000 $265.27 $8.27 0.83%
Whirlpool Consumer Discretionary $7.00 477,000 $120.97 $0.06 0.82%
Discover Financial Financials $13.20 1,733,628 $61.90 $0.11 0.81%
American Airlines Industrials $5.30 2,335,805 $16.96 $0.04 0.75%
Intel Corp Information Technology $254.00 36,200,000 $52.11 $1.89 0.74%
SiriusXM Holdings Communication Services $25.90 29,243,680 $5.56 $0.16 0.63%
Principal Financial Financials $10.00 1,349,175 $45.19 $0.06 0.61%
Waters Corporation Healthcare $11.60 347,000 $192.78 $0.07 0.58%
Crown Holdings Materials $8.70 1,038,821 $48.24 $0.05 0.58%
Verisign Information Technology $24.40 772,000 $179.09 $0.14 0.57%
Syneos Health Healthcare $5.90 600,000 $53.38 $0.03 0.54%
Maxim Integrated Products Information Technology $15.50 1,599,000 $50.90 $0.08 0.53%
Fair Isaac Corp Information Technology $10.20 184,837 $288.46 $0.05 0.52%
Cognex Corp Information Technology $9.90 1,215,000 $42.01 $0.05 0.52%
Pilgrims Pride Corp Consumer Staples $5.50 1,465,695 $19.04 $0.03 0.51%
Northern Trust Corp Financials $17.10 1,112,215 $76.68 $0.09 0.50%
AMPHENOL CORPORATION Information Technology $27.30 1,477,278 $91.49 $0.14 0.50%
Charter Communications Communication Services $116.00 1,246,396 $437.05 $0.54 0.47%
Lockheed Martin Industrials $108.80 1,453,821 $350.37 $0.51 0.47%
Intercontinental Exchange Financials $49.80 2,718,000 $85.42 $0.23 0.47%
Idexx Laboratories Healthcare $23.70 427,182 $233.00 $0.10 0.42%
Anthem Inc Healthcare $70.80 1,135,798 $261.46 $0.30 0.42%
DR Horton Consumer Discretionary $17.80 1,778,760 $41.38 $0.07 0.41%
Alphabet Communication Services $917.80 3,225,000 $1,170.86 $3.78 0.41%
Pegasystems Information Technology $6.60 299,000 $79.88 $0.02 0.36%
Mondelez International Consumer Staples $73.00 5,043,655 $51.82 $0.26 0.36%
Northup Gruman Industrials $55.10 625,975 $313.11 $0.20 0.36%
The Hershey Co Consumer Staples $28.00 526,138 $155.08 $0.08 0.29%
Microsoft Information Technology $1,004.00 18,203,465 $153.78 $2.80 0.28%
Lennox International Industrials $7.10 84,507 $233.90 $0.02 0.28%
Cadence Design Systems Information Technology $22.90 967,095 $61.85 $0.06 0.26%
Fastenal Industrials $20.70 1,600,000 $32.54 $0.05 0.25%
Entegris Inc Information Technology $7.60 411,514 $46.37 $0.02 0.25%
Illumina Healthcare $46.80 424,000 $277.01 $0.12 0.25%
Franklin Resources Financials $9.20 1,147,744 $19.36 $0.02 0.24%
American Express Financials $77.40 1,835,465 $100.37 $0.18 0.24%
Starbucks Consumer Discretionary $89.80 3,139,273 $64.22 $0.20 0.22%
Delta Airlines Industrials $17.40 738,722 $46.99 $0.03 0.20%
Kimberly Clark Consumer Staples $47.20 714,900 $129.88 $0.09 0.20%
Johnson & Johnson Healthcare $395.30 5,031,134 $142.96 $0.72 0.18%
Amgen Inc Healthcare $140.60 1,184,327 $201.66 $0.24 0.17%
Intuitive Surgical Healthcare $60.60 191,639 $521.83 $0.10 0.17%
Iqvia Holdings Healthcare $27.20 400,000 $110.53 $0.04 0.16%
Rockwell Automation Industrials $22.80 228,719 $155.83 $0.04 0.16%
PepsiCo Consumer Staples $183.60 2,100,000 $128.00 $0.27 0.15%
The Carlyle Group Financials $13.50 837,491 $22.33 $0.02 0.14%
Chipotle Mexican Grill Consumer Discretionary $24.50 48,069 $624.00 $0.03 0.12%
Colgate-Palmolive Consumer Staples $60.30 1,031,036 $67.36 $0.07 0.12%
3M Industrials $89.90 723,676 $140.55 $0.10 0.11%
The Hartford Financial Services Group Financials $14.70 313,165 $47.72 $0.01 0.10%
Facebook Communication Services $553.60 2,100,000 $166.71 $0.35 0.06%
Eli Lilly Healthcare $148.00 601,000 $137.87 $0.08 0.06%
Paycom Software Information Technology $15.00 39,555 $203.14 $0.01 0.05%
Prologis, Inc Real Estate $65.90 539,000 $64.66 $0.03 0.05%
Markel Corp Financials $12.50 5,212 $1,139.90 $0.01 0.05%
American Tower Group Real Estate $105.00 213,352 $211.45 $0.05 0.04%
Brown & Brown Financials $10.40 70,548 $34.86 $0.00 0.02%
Masimo Corp Healthcare $11.50 11,652 $154.09 $0.00 0.02%
Centene Healthcare $38.60 12,000 $53.05 $0.00 0.00%
Dow Chemical Materials Not listed 2,028,919 $36.97 $0.08 NA

 

Earnings snapshot: Netflix (Q1 2020)

Netflix (NFLX) reported a blowout subscriber number Q1 ’20, adding 15.8m net adds versus its guidance of 7.0m and 9.6m in Q1’19.

While Q2 guidance was characterized as a “complete guess,” net add guidance of 7.5m was also meaningfully ahead of consensus, and nearly 3x the 2.7m added in Q2’19. Management did temper expectations by suggesting strong net adds in 1H at least in part reflected a pull-forward of demand.  The conservative messaging on 2H, combined with the runup into the print, led to a muted stock price reaction to earnings.

“The things we are certain of is the Internet is growing. It’s a bigger part of people’s lives, thankfully. And the people want entertainment. They want to be able to escape and connect, whether times are difficult or joyous. That’s pulling up. We’ve had an increase in subscriber growth in March. It’s essentially a pull-forward of the rest of the year. So our guess is that subs will be light in Q3 and Q4 relative to prior years because of that. But we don’t use the words guess and guesswork lightly. We use them because it’s a bunch of us feeling the wind, and it’s hard to say. But again, will Internet entertainment be more and more important over the next 5 years? Nothing has changed in that.” Netflix (4/21 – Q1 2020 Earnings Call)

 

Originals continue to drive the business with Tiger King: Murder (64m viewers), Love is Blind (30m), Spenser Confidential (85m), and Money Heist (a projected 65m).  Netflix will be without two of their biggest series in Q3 this year (Stranger Things and Money Heist), which leads to tougher comps compared to Q3’19.  This, along with the pull-forward from coronavirus, explains management’s “current guess” that 2H net adds will be lower YoY.

“Hopefully, progress against the virus will allow governments to lift the home confinement soon. As that happens, we expect viewing and growth to decline. Our internal forecast and guidance is for 7.5 million global paid net additions in Q2. Given the uncertainty on home confinement timing, this is mostly guesswork. The actual Q2 numbers could end up well below or well above that, depending on many factors including when people can go back to their social lives in various countries and how much people take a break from television after the lockdown. Some of the lockdown growth will turn out to be pull-forward from the multi-year organic growth trend, resulting in slower growth after the lockdown is lifted country-by-country. Intuitively, the person who didn’t join Netflix during the entire confinement is not likely to join soon after the confinement. Plus, last year we had new seasons of Money Heist and Stranger Things in Q3, which were not planned for this year’s Q3. Therefore, we currently guess that Q3’20 and Q4’20 will have lower net additions than last year due to these effects.” Netflix (4/21 – 8K)

ARPU was a bit light of expectations as coronavirus led to a strengthening of the USD, especially relative to Latam currencies. Despite the ARPU pressure, NFLX reiterated its 16% GAAP Operating Margin guidance for 2020.

Management also relieved some concern over production pauses leading to a gap in content by explaining a less-understood aspect of their business–they shoot far out relative to the industry–which means their 2020 slate is mostly set.  

Yes. Well, the one thing that’s maybe not widely understood is we work really far out relative to the industry because we launch our shows all episodes at once. And we’re working far out all over the world. So our 2020 slate of series and films are largely shot and are in post-production remotely in locations all over the world. So — and we’re actually pretty deep into our 2021 slate. So we’re not — we aren’t anticipating any moving — moving things around. And to give you some examples, The Crown, in its fourth season; our big fourth-quarter animated release, Over the Moon. These are shot productions in our — in the finishing stages right now to release later this year as planned. So we don’t anticipate moving the schedule around much and certainly not in 2020.” Netflix (4/21 – Q1 2020 Earnings Call)

 

As a result of pausing production (as well as scaling the business), Free Cash Flow burn will meaningfully improve to under $1bn from prior guidance of $2.5m and 2019 levels.  FCF materially improving with an unchanged 2020 slate gives investors a directional proof point in the Company closing the gap between FCF and EPS in the long run.  That said, they did allude to 2021 potentially being a step back in the path to cash breakeven as they re-ramp production.  

“With our productions currently paused, this will shift out some cash spending on content to future years. As a result, we’re now expecting 2020 FCF of -$1 billion or better (compared with our prior 2020 expectation of -$2.5 billion and -$3.3 billion actual in 2019). This dynamic may result in more lumpiness in our path to sustained FCF profitability (as, prior to the pandemic, we had been planning for annual improvement in FCF). However, there has been no material change to our overall time table to reach consistent annual positive FCF and we believe that 2019 will still represent the peak in our annual FCF deficit.” Netflix (4/21 – 8K)

NFLX cemented themselves as one of the biggest beneficiaries of coronavirus, but as Reed said, it’s mostly just accelerating the multi-year secular shift towards streaming.

Looking for the data? Here’s a quarterly breakdown pulled directly from Netflix’s 8K Appendix, dated April 21, 2020:

AS-Blog-Netflix-Earnings-Chart (1)With the table extraction feature in AlphaSense, users can export essential earnings data in seconds–speeding up time to format, digest, and analyze essential information. Leverage this tool for Earnings Season by signing up for a free trial or logging into your account.

Looking for more Earnings Season content? Visit our Insights section for more.

Stances Differ on Executive Compensation Cuts Amidst Market Upheaval

As consumer demand falters and companies report the negative impact of coronavirus in Q1 earnings, cost-cutting measures are common. While some companies are laying off and furloughing employees by the hundreds of thousands or reducing their brand marketing and advertising spend, others are turning to executive compensation cuts as a means to preserve cash. More than a cost-cutting tool, some companies are leveraging this message as a PR opportunity. Others have yet to adjust their executive compensation despite shareholder concerns.

How are companies communicating their executive compensation strategies? We’ve compiled a list of comments from large brands to highlight the differing stances.

 

Takeaways:

  • After hinting at potential layoffs earlier this week, AT&T stated, “The Board does not believe our guiding pay principle should be changed”
  • Barclays and Telus Health have communicated via press release that their execs will forgo a portion of their salaries to donate to charitable causes
  • The majority of changes to executive compensation are coming from reductions in base pay with cuts ranging from 20% to 100%
  • CBRE, McDonald’s, GE and Burlington Stores all communicated voluntarily reductions in executive pay

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AT&T (Analyst/Investor Call – 4/24)

Stacey S. Maris, AT&T Inc. – Senior VP, Assistant General Counsel & Secretary

The next order of business is the proposal submitted by Jing Zhao. This is item 6. The proposal is now before the meeting. Mr. Zhao has submitted the following statement in support of the proposal. It is regrettable that our Board opposed my proposal to improve guiding principles of executive compensation by reducing the executive pay and the CEO pay ratio, especially under the current global and national crisis of the coronavirus pandemic and economic recession. It is high time for our executives to take the social responsibility on your own initiative as patriotic citizens. Please vote for proposal item 6.

Randall L. Stephenson, AT&T Inc. – Chairman & CEO

Thank you, Stacey. The Board’s Human Resources Committee has designed an executive compensation program that effectively ties pay to performance, and it’s described in detail in the proxy statement. The Board does not believe our guiding pay principle should be changed as described in this proposal. As a result, your Board recommends a vote against this stockholder proposal.

 

Hilton Worldwide (Proxy – 4/24)

Our President and CEO, Christopher Nassetta, will forgo his base salary for the remainder of 2020 and our Executive Committee will have their base salaries reduced by 50% for the duration of the crisis.

 

Freeport-McMoran (8k – 4/24)

On April 22, 2020, and in support of the company’s efforts to reduce costs and conserve cash during the current period of uncertainty resulting from low copper prices and the economic downturn in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic, senior management recommended and the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of FCX approved a 25% reduction in the base salary of Richard C. Adkerson, the President and Chief Executive Officer, and Kathleen L. Quirk, the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (each an “Executive”), effective May 1, 2020 through the remainder of 2020. 

 

Heineken (Analyst/Investor Transcript – 4/23)

The Executive Board and the executive team have jointly decided to cut their base salary by 20% between May and December 2020 as a show of solidarity with the company and employees affected by this crisis.

 

WW Grainger (10Q – 4/23)

With respect to liquidity for the quarter, the Company took several actions to bolster its financial condition and has in place contingency plans to reduce costs while supporting business operations though the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of these actions included:

  • Drew down $1.0 billion from the Company’s $1.25 billion unsecured revolving credit facility
  • Paused the Company’s share repurchase program
  • Implemented several initiatives to conserve cash and optimize profitability, including limiting discretionary spending, temporarily furloughing employees or reducing work hours, reducing short term executive pay, delaying salary increases, scaling back advertising spend, eliminating non-essential travel, delaying or reducing hiring activities and deferring certain discretionary capital expenditures.

TJX (Definitive Proxy – 4/23)

Our ECC remains focused on its executive compensation responsibilities in light of the rapidly changing social and business conditions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first quarter of fiscal 2021, the ECC approved temporary salary reductions for our executive officers and determined that it was appropriate to postpone certain other annual compensation decisions. The ECC may determine to make additional changes to our executive compensation program that take into account the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Coca-Cola (Analyst/Investor Transcript – 4/22)

Answer – Jennifer D. Manning: We do have another question. This is from [Robert Foster]. Has there been any consideration of a voluntary reduction in executive compensation in response to the present challenges of COVID-19?

Answer – James Robert B. Quincey: Sure. We have considered all elements of our business. And ultimately, our approach is grounded in our company’s purpose, where we’re always looking to make a difference in communities. In these unprecedented times, context of the company — for each company is very important. So we’re looking very hard at all aspects of our spending. We’re focused on preserving jobs and roles in our company. We have the right talent. We want to have the right talent in place as we emerge from this crisis. We haven’t announced any changes in compensation at this stage, and we have not canceled or reduced any of the benefit plans that are critical to ensuring everyone gets the help we need.

 

Rollins Inc (8k – 4/22)

As a result of the impact of the challenges related to COVID-19, we have taken a proactive step of implementing salary reductions for the officers of our company. The salary reductions and new annual base salaries of the Company’s NEO’s are as follows: Gary W. Rollins, Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer: from $1,100,000 to $715,000; Paul E. Northen, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer: from $550,000 to $412,500; R. Randall Rollins, Chairman of the Board: from $1,000,000 to $650,000; John F. Wilson, President and Chief Operating Officer: from $850,000 to $552,500; and Elizabeth B. Chandler, Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary: from $400,000 to $300,000.

Delta Airlines (10Q – 4/22)

As a result of decreased demand for air travel due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we have instituted a hiring freeze, reduced salaries by 50% and 25% for our officer and director level employees, respectively, and reduced work hours by 25% for all other management and most front-line employee work groups for the June 2020 quarter. In addition, approximately 35,000 of our employees will take a voluntary unpaid leave of absence for periods ranging from 30 days up to 12 months beginning in the June 2020 quarter. As a result, we expect salaries and related costs to decline in future periods versus the comparable prior year period.

 

GE (Definitive Proxy – 4/21)

As the Covid-19 pandemic creates unprecedented impacts across the global economy and our business, we remain convinced that we have in place an executive team with the experience and resilience to navigate the challenges ahead. The voluntary compensation actions announced by our CEO to forego all of his salary and our head of Aviation to forego half of his salary for the remainder of 2020 are emblematic of their commitment to GE.

 

Exact Sciences (8k – 4/21)

The Company has initiated proactive measures to address the order weakness experienced thus far and anticipated for the balance of 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Company expects to achieve cost savings through, among other things:

i. reduction of the CEO’s base salary to effectively zero (excluding amounts to cover benefits and taxes)

ii. elimination of the Board of Directors annual cash retainer,

iii. reduction of base salaries for our executive team and employees at or above the director level,

iv. reduction in the annual corporate bonus and quarterly sales commissions,

v. implementation of a voluntary furlough program,

vi. implementation of a workforce reduction, involuntary furloughs, and work schedule reductions,

vii. reduction of investments in marketing and other promotional activities,

viii. reduction in costs of goods sold consistent with the expected decrease in revenue,

ix. pause in certain clinical trial activities,

x. reduction of travel and professional services fees, and

xi. delay or termination of certain capital projects

The Company estimates that these items will contribute over $400 million of cost savings in 2020. The Company believes that its cost savings, coupled with its strong cash position, will enable the Company to continue serving patients who rely on its screening and diagnostic products and services through the remainder of the COVID-19 pandemic and thereafter. These estimates of potential cost savings, and the timing thereof, are subject to a number of assumptions and actual results may differ.

 

Kering (PR – 4/21)

April 10, 2020 – Given the current context of the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on economic activity, François‑Henri Pinault, Chairman and CEO of Kering, decided to reduce the fixed portion of his salary by 25% from April 1, until the end of 2020. In addition, François-Henri Pinault and Jean-François-Palus, Group Managing Director, decided to waive the entirety of the variable portions of their annual remuneration for 2020.

 

Associated British Foods (Interim Results – 4/21)

The board is acutely aware that many of our employees will see their livelihoods affected by COVID-19. With this in mind, the board has accepted the proposal by the executive directors to reduce their base pay temporarily by 50% and that no bonuses relating to the current financial year will be paid to them. In addition, the non-executive directors of the board, including myself as chairman, have decided that their fees should be reduced temporarily by 25%. These steps are appropriate given our expectation that full year earnings for the group will now be much lower than we anticipated at the start of the financial year.

 

Barclays (PR – 4/20)

Remuneration Policy (“Policy”), be postponed until at least 2021. The Board has confirmed that it will agree to this and, therefore, if the Policy is approved by shareholders, there will be no increases to Mr Staley or Mr Morzaria’s Fixed Pay until at least 2021.

The Company has already announced (a) that Mr Staley and Mr Morzaria (and the Group Chairman) have volunteered to contribute one-third of their Fixed Pay for the next six months to charitable causes in line with the approach outlined for Barclays’ Community Aid Package of £100 million for charities working to support vulnerable people impacted by COVID-19, and (b) that the release of the first portion of Mr Staley and Mr Morzaria’s 2017 Long Term Incentive Plan (“LTIP”) awards, which were due to vest in June 2020, would be delayed. These awards will now vest on 8 March 2021, subject to the LTIP rules.

 

Lululemon (Definitive Proxy – 4/20)

Following its annual review of target compensation levels of the executive officers, and taking into consideration the unprecedented business environment as impacted by the outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus disease, the compensation committee approved making no increases to named executive officer compensation for fiscal 2020, with the exception of Ms. Averill, who received an increase in her annual equity grant to $750,000. Additionally, our senior leadership team, including our named executive officers, will reduce their base salaries by 20% for three months in fiscal 2020, and members of our board of directors will forgo their cash retainer for that same period. We plan to use the cost savings to establish a fund to aid employees affected by the COVID-19 crisis who are facing hardship in their lives.

 

Best Buy (Preliminary Proxy – 4/16)

On April 9, 2020, in response to the COVID-19 national emergency, the Compensation Committee approved temporary base salary reductions for Ms. Barry and her direct reports, including Mr. Bilunas, Mr. Mohan, Mr. Alexander and Ms. Scarlett, for the period from April 12, 2020 through September 1, 2020. The base salary for Ms. Barry was reduced by 50% and the base salaries of the other named executive officers were reduced by 20%.

 

Estee Lauder (8k – 4/15)

On April 15, 2020, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (the “Company”) announced that effective May 1, 2020 and continuing through October 31, 2020, the base salary for each of the Company’s Named Executive Officers will be reduced as follows:

Named Executive Officer Base Salary Reduced by:
William P. Lauder, Executive Chairman 50%
Fabrizio Freda, President and Chief Executive Officer 50%
Tracey T. Travis, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer 30%
John Demsey, Executive Group President 30%
Cedric Prouvé, Group President – International 30%

 

The Company’s press release dated April 15, 2020 contains additional information about compensation matters concerning other Executive Officers as well as the Board of Directors.

 

Burlington Stores (PR – 4/13)

As part of its COVID-19 response, the Company has taken the following additional short term actions:

  • Burlington’s CEO, Michael O’Sullivan, will not take a salary, the Company’s Board of Directors will forfeit their cash compensation, and the Company’s executive leadership team has voluntarily agreed to decrease their salary by 50%.
  • Finalization of annual incentive bonus payments related to Fiscal 2019 performance, as well as merit pay increases for Fiscal 2020, have been delayed to later in the fiscal year after the Company has more clarity regarding the impact of COVID-19.

 

Fiserv (8k – 4/10)

Jeffery Yabuki, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Frank Bisignano, President and Chief Operating Officer, have each agreed to forgo 100% of the base salary that would have been payable to them, and Robert Hau, Devin McGranahan and Byron Vielehr have each agreed to forgo 20% of the base salary that would otherwise have been payable to them; provided that, in each case, such reduction will not include the portion of an executive’s base salary necessary to fund continued participation in the Company’s health and welfare benefits plans. The foregone compensation will be used to provide assistance to Company associates who experience financial hardship due to COVID-19 through the Fiserv Cares Fund.

 

Prudential PLC (PR – 4/9)

In light of the current situation and the need for continued restraint in executive remuneration, Prudential’s Executive Directors have proposed the following changes to their remuneration in 2020, which have been accepted by the Board’s Remuneration Committee:

  • A reduction in the salaries of Executive Directors to the level on 31 December 2019, with effect from 1 April 2020.
  • A reduction in the pension benefits of incumbent Executive Directors from 25 per cent to 13 per cent of salary, with effect from 14 May 2020.
  • The Group Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer’s 2020 Prudential Long Term Incentive Plan award will be maintained at 250 per cent and will no longer increase to 300 per cent of salary

 

Microchip Technology (8k – 4/9)

In response to uncertainties related to the impact of the COVID-19 virus and in connection with other expense reduction actions being taken by our management team, on April 8, 2020, the Compensation Committee of our Board of Directors approved a 20% salary cut for Microchip’s Chief Executive Officer (Steve Sanghi), President (Ganesh Moorthy) and other executive staff members (including our other named executive officers, Eric Bjornholt, Steve Drehobl and Mitch Little) effective April 20, 2020. In addition, the Microchip board of directors approved a 20% cut in their cash compensation effective April 20, 2020.

 

Zimmer Biomet (8k – 4/8)

On April 6, 2020, the Compensation and Management Development Committee (the “Committee”) of the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) approved temporary reductions in the base salaries of the Company’s named executive officers in response to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the scope and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic.  Bryan Hanson, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, will temporarily forgo his entire base salary and the other named executive officers will temporarily be subject to a 25% reduction in their base salaries, in each case until such time as the Committee may determine in its discretion.

 

PPG Industries (8k – 4/8)

In addition to other proactive measures being taken in response to the impacts of COVID-19, the named executive officers and certain other officers of PPG Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) have elected to reduce their 2020 base salaries, and the Officers-Directors Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors approved these salary reductions on April 2, 2020. The base salaries of the named executive officers of the Company will be reduced by the following percentages:

Michael H. McGarry, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer: 30%

Timothy M. Knavish, Executive Vice President: 25%

Rebecca B. Liebert, Executive Vice President: 25%

Vincent J. Morales, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer: 25%

Ram Vadlamannati, Senior Vice President, Protective and Marine Coatings and President, PPG Europe, Middle East and Africa: 20%

These salary reductions are effective immediately and will continue until September 30, 2020 with the possibility of being extended or curtailed based on business conditions and total company performance.

 

Telus Health (PR – 4/8)

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, April 08, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — In response to queries related to an internal bulletin sent out to TELUS employees on Monday, April 6, TELUS is confirming that CEO Darren Entwistle will forgo his salary for the 3 months of April, May and June 2020, and donate it to Canadian healthcare workers on the front lines, battling COVID-19.

 

Rockwell Automation (PR – 4/8)

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Rockwell Automation currently anticipates no payout for its incentive compensation plans for fiscal 2020, is eliminating discretionary spend across the organization, and is instituting other temporary cost actions that will be effective in most worldwide locations by the beginning of May. Efforts include:

  • A 25% salary reduction for chairman and CEO Blake Moret, 15% salary reductions for all Senior Vice Presidents, and 7.5% salary reductions for all other non-manufacturing employees around the world. The Board of Directors has also reduced its cash fees by 50%. Manufacturing associates are not impacted by the temporary pay reductions and are receiving a one-time additional payment in recognition of their work in serving our customers during this difficult time.
  • The company match will be suspended for U.S. employees participating in the 401(k) retirement savings plan.

We plan to reverse these actions as soon as possible as markets recover.

 

McDonald’s (PR – 4/8)

In light of the significant impact that COVID-19 has had on the Company’s global operations, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer voluntarily offered a 50% reduction in his base salary and the other Named Executive Officers offered a 25% reduction in their base salaries for the period April 15, 2020 to September 30, 2020, subject to extension if the situation warrants. The Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors endorsed and approved these changes in Named Executive Officer compensation.

 

Marriott International (Definitive Proxy – 4/8)

However, in March 2020, in light of the rapidly evolving coronavirus (COVID-19) situation, the Committee discussed with management the appropriateness of adjusting senior executive compensation as part of the Companys numerous initiatives to mitigate the negative financial and operational impacts of COVID-19. Mr. Sorenson recommended that he receive no base salary (except as necessary for benefit deductions) for the remainder of the year and the other NEOs requested, and Mr. Sorenson recommended, that they receive 50% of their base salary for the remainder of the year, in each case beginning in April 2020. The Committee and Board accepted these recommendations.

 

CBRE (8k – 4/7)

In light of the Company’s contingency planning related to the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, our Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) and the executive officers that are his direct reports have elected to voluntarily forgo a portion of their base salaries until further notice. Effective as of April 4, 2020, the Company’s CEO will forgo 100% of his base salary and each other executive officer of the Company that is a direct report of the CEO will forgo 15% of his or her base salary, in each case, until it is determined that such salary decreases are no longer warranted. On April 1, 2020, the Compensation Committee of our Board of Directors approved these changes to executive officer compensation.

 

Ross Stores (Definitive Proxy – 4/7)

Note that, effective April 1, 2020, in conjunction with other salary and payroll expense reduction measures taken by the Company in response to the store closures and other business disruptions resulting from regional and national efforts to slow the COVID-19 pandemic, Ms. Rentler, Mr. Balmuth, Mr. Hartshorn, Mr. Kobayashi, Mr. Morrow, and Mr. Marquette have agreed to a reduction in their salaries by 100%, 100%, 50%, 40%, 40%, and 20%, respectively, until at least 50% of the Company’s stores closed due to COVID-19 and related impact re-open.

 

VF Corp (8k – 4/7)

On April 3, 2020, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) approved a temporary fifty percent reduction in base salary for Steven E. Rendle, the Company’s Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, and a temporary twenty-five percent reduction in base salary for the rest of the Company’s Executive Leadership Team, including the current named executive officers. The compensation reductions will be reassessed in four months and modified as necessary.

 

HCA Healthcare (8k – 4/2)

On March 31, 2020, the Compensation Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board of Directors of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (the “Company”) approved a 30 percent reduction in base salary for the Company’s named executive officers and other executive officers for the period from April 1, 2020 through May 31, 2020. Also, on March 31, 2020, the Board of Directors of the Company approved the waiver of all cash compensation retainers for non-management board members for the period from April 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020.

 

Simon Property Group (Definitive Proxy – 4/2)

Effective March 28, 2020, because of the COVID-19 pandemic and its related impact on the Company’s business operations, (i) David Simon, the Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of the Company has elected to reduce his base salary to zero, (ii) Steven E. Fivel, the General Counsel and Secretary of the Company, and John Rulli, the President of Malls – Chief Administrative Officer of the Company, have each agreed to reduce their respective base salaries by 30%, and (iii) Brian J. McDade, the Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of the Company, and Alexander L.W. Snyder, the Assistant General Counsel and Assistant Secretary of the Company, have each agreed to reduce their respective base salaries by 25%.

 

Boston Scientific (8k – 4/2)

On April 2 , 2020, the Company announced that, in light of the disruption and uncertainty created by the evolving COVID-19 pandemic and its anticipated impact on the Company’s operations , all of our executive officers, including our Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer, and our other named executive officers, will be taking a temporary reduction in base salary for up to 6 months. Our Chief Executive Officer, Michael Mahoney, will completely forgo his base salary, other than payments necessary to retain his benefits, resulting in a 99 percent reduction in his base salary. Our Chief Financial Officer, Daniel Brennan, and each of our other named executive officers, including, Kevin Ballinger, Joseph Fitzgerald, and Edward Mackey, will be taking a 50 percent reduction in base salary. These reductions in pay for our named executive officers will be effective as of April 13 , 2020 and are expected to last for up to 6 months.

 

IHS Markit (Definitive Proxy – 3/30)

Following the Committee’s approvals of these compensatory arrangements, COVID-19 was declared by the World Health Organization to be a pandemic. In response to COVID-19’s potential adverse financial impact on the Company, at the request of the named executive officers, the Committee has approved adjustments to the compensation of the named executive officers for the remainder of 2020 and 2021. The Committee has approved reductions to the compensation for the named executive officers as follows:

  • Effective April 1, 2020 and for the remainder of fiscal year 2020, a 50% decrease from the current salary of the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and a 40% decrease in the current salary of the other named executive officers;
  • A reduction in the 2020 Cash Incentive Target amounts to apply the previously approved target percentages of base salary to the adjusted full year earned 2020 salary for each named executive officer; and
  • Effective December 1, 2020 for the remainder of fiscal year 2021, a 25% decrease from the current salary of the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and a 20% decrease in the current salary of the other named executive officers.

 

Insurance adjusts to the ‘new normal’

Interested in staying up-to-date on COVID-19’s impact across sectors? Visit our Coronavirus Impact Tracker for daily updates pulled from earnings calls, press releases, 8ks, and more.

Insurers are adjusting the risk models that inform premium pricing as COVID-19 erases what risk models consider “normal.” As a result, consumers are saving upwards of 15% on their insurance premiums. Some auto insurers are now giving back recently paid premiums and allowing consumers to suspend their insurance coverage given the shelter in place orders. The upside for some insurers, through this pandemic, is the reduced number of claims being filed in certain business lines — but will it be enough to mitigate the broader impacts to be seen? See our takeaways on market chatter below:

 

Takeaways:
Continue reading “Insurance adjusts to the ‘new normal’”

Big Bank Earnings: Trends in Executive Commentary

America’s biggest banks reported earnings this week and shed light on how this uncertain environment is impacting their outlook. With all major players reporting reserve-building activities and significantly lower earnings, we got an early glimpse into how COVID-19 is impacting the economy as a whole. What were the major trends in executive commentary? What macro assumptions are banks building into their models? We’ve compiled highlights from this week’s Earnings calls.

 

Takeaways:

  • Goldman Sachs on lending: we will be quite cautious in terms of credit extension and growing that book. And we’ll return to grow that book once this sort of circumstance and market volatility passes.
  • JPMorgan on reserves: But all else equal, given the deteriorated macroeconomic outlook, we would expect to build reserves in the second quarter.
  • Wells Fargo on CCAR: So just to dimension it compared to other scenarios, thinking about both our performance in the financial crisis as well as our own CCAR severely adverse scenarios, at this point, we see this as not generating that level of loss in our own CCAR severely adverse scenarios
  • Bank of America on consumer spending: The overall spending, however, of all types of spending in our customers seems to have stabilized in the last few weeks. During mid-April, we’re seeing spending run at about a low $50 billion average level compared to a $60 billion average level before the crisis.
  • Morgan Stanley on deposits: And we did see a surge in deposits in March, almost $30 billion in the month of March alone. And the balances are up $45 billion for the quarter. That was generally a result of people shifting out of equities and going into cash in the wealth system.
  • Citi on dividend: But to be clear, in our capacity here and the way we’re looking at things, we remain committed to paying our dividend.


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MACRO / CREDIT

Goldman Sachs

And so certainly, I think if you’re trying to prepare for an economic environment, you have to view something that is a slower economic recovery as you come out of this. And look, even if you look at the Goldman Sachs scenario of a very steep decline with a sharp increase in the second and third quarter, they’re still only predicting a 50% recovery of the output that we’ve lost. So I think for anybody operating a business, you have to be planning on an assumption that we’re going to be operating in a recession through 2020 into 2021, and you have to plan accordingly.

Will the monetary policy and fiscal policy be a benefit to the positive of what that trajectory looks like in the third, fourth quarter and into the first half of next year? Yes. But it’s very hard to quantify what that will be because the uncertainty around the course of the virus will take and how it will affect human behavior is still very uncertain. And anyone who’s telling you they’re sure that it will look like this or they’re sure that it will look like that, I don’t think anybody’s sure.

The book obviously stands at $128 billion. There was meaningful growth in the quarter, occasioned by the relationship loan book being drawn by about $19 billion. But I think risk is obviously an important governor. And so I would just point out as an example, in the context of the Consumer book, we’re ever committed to that business. But at this moment, in this environment, we will be quite cautious in terms of credit extension and growing that book. And we’ll return to grow that book once this sort of circumstance and market volatility passes. Just as an example of how risk needs to be the governor in the context of managing this profile and the loan book overall.

It’s worth pointing out that in these scenarios, we take a look at what the contraction of GDP is. We look at unemployment. But we don’t ignore the fact that there are a number of programs in place across a range of countries, notably the U.S., where central banks and treasuries have put in place monetary and fiscal stimulus that has the potential to serve as some counterbalance, if you will, to what may play. To the extent that holds and that accelerates a recovery, I have every expectation that reserves would reflect it. If this continued on and that didn’t have the efficacy that is otherwise intended, one could imagine a scenario that plays more to the downside, and I would expect provisions and losses to reflect the same. And so again, hard to predict what the next quarter or subsequent quarters hold. But I think we’ll rely and you should know that we’ll rely on a pretty robust modeling exercise that will reflect the circumstances that we see in front of us.

 

JPMorgan Chase

Answer – Jennifer A. Piepszak: Sure. So Mike, as we close the books for the first quarter, just to give it context, we were looking at an economic outlook that had GDP down 25% in the second quarter and unemployment above 10%. It’s just important to note that, that kind of gives you a frame of how to think about it, but there’s a lot more that goes into our reserving, including management judgment of some like world-class risk management and finance people and also other analytics. And so that just kind of gives you a frame of reference.

But there, we did think about a number of other scenarios that we should contemplate in reserving. And we also thought about the impact, what’s our best estimate of the impact of these extraordinary government programs as well as our own payment relief programs.

Since then, as I noted in my prepared remarks, our economists have updated their outlook and now have GDP down 40% in the second quarter and unemployment at 20%. That’s obviously materially different. Both scenarios, though, do include a recovery in the back half of the year.

And so all else equal, and of course, the one thing — probably the only thing we know for sure, Mike, is that all else won’t be equal when we close the books for the second quarter. But all else equal, given the deteriorated macroeconomic outlook, we would expect to build reserves in the second quarter. But again, a lot will depend on the ultimate effect of these extraordinary programs and how effective they can be in bridging people back to employment.

Answer – James Dimon: I say in commercial real estate, eventually, it will be loan by loan and name by name, too. So if you have reason to believe that a loan is bad, you’re going to write it down and put a reserve against or something like that.

This is such a dramatic change of events. So there are no models that have done — dealt with GDP down 40%, unemployment growing this rapidly. And that’s one part. There are also no models that have ever dealt with a government, which is doing a PPP program, which might be $350 billion, it might be $550 billion, unemployment where it looks like 30% or 40% of people going unemployment but higher income than before they went on unemployment. So what does that mean for credit cards or something like that where the government is just going to make direct payments to people? So this is all in the works right now. The company is in very good shape. We can serve our clients, and we’re going to give you more detail on this, but it’s happening as we speak.

And I think people — you’re making too much mistake trying to model it. When we get to the end of the second quarter, we’ll know exactly what happened in the second quarter like we know — you’ve got to expect the credit card delinquencies and charges will go up that we’ve seen very little bit so far, but by the end of the second quarter, you’ll see more of it. And then we’ll also know if there’s a fourth round of government stimulus. We’ll know a whole bunch of stuff, and we’ll report that out. We hope for the best, which is you have that recovery, and plan for the worst, so you can handle it.

Answer – Jennifer A. Piepszak: Yes. And then in terms of planning for the worst, Betsy, maybe it would be helpful. The extreme adverse scenario that Jamie referenced in his Chairman’s Letter had 2020 credit cost of more than $45 billion. So clearly, that is not our essential case, but that’s the kind of scenario that we are making sure that we’re prepared for.

And then just coincidentally, if you look at our credit costs from the fourth quarter of ’08 to the fourth quarter of ’09, across those 5 quarters, we had credit cost of $47 billion. So…

Answer – James Dimon: I got this number when the reserves went from like $7 billion to $35 billion back to $14 billion. Reserving itself is procyclical and often wrong. And you’re required to do it, but it certainly doesn’t match revenues and expenses. And so we like to be conservative in reserving, but I have to point out the flaws of it.

 

Wells Fargo

So just to dimension it compared to other scenarios, thinking about both our performance in the financial crisis as well as our own CCAR severely adverse scenarios, at this point, we see this as not generating that level of loss in our own CCAR severely adverse scenarios. I think we produced 9 quarter credit losses of about 2.75% in total, with peak quarterly loss rates expressed on an annualized basis of about 1.7%, 1.75% and an average of about 1.2%. That’s got a steeper drop in GDP and a steeper climb in unemployment. And importantly, no stimulus baked into the severely adverse case. It doesn’t anticipate the types of interventions that we’ve already seen and we’re waiting to see materialize.

And with respect to the financial crisis as a benchmark, importantly, at least for Wells Fargo, it may be true for other banks as well, but loan portfolios were very different then. The quality of loans, particularly on the single-family side, was worse. I think our auto portfolio was worse then, too. And so there, we did produce somewhat higher loss rates, even higher loss rates than we do today in our own CCAR analysis because the content of the portfolio is different. But I guess I would describe what we’re currently imagining now to be, I’ll call it, half-ish of an annualized loss rate of the severely adverse version of our own stress test. And so if things play out substantially worse, then there’s certainly the possibility that we end up building more or experiencing more charge-offs or both. But we feel good about the approach that we’ve taken in March, developing our scenarios with our governance around it and coming into the quarter end

 

Citi

Glenn, I would say that the actions that we’ve seen out of the combination of the fed and the treasury are truly extraordinary, not just in terms of the volume of dollars and programs, but I think the breadth that’s there and the speed at which they’ve implemented them and whether it’s been the CP facility, the money market liquidity facility, the repo facilities, the broader corporate pieces, the SBA loans and now not something that’s being talked about that much but is this Main Street program that’s there.

And I think from a plumbing perspective, your question is a good one because, obviously, the real economy doesn’t have direct access to the fed or to treasury. And I think it’s the banks and in particular, the big banks’ role, one of many roles that we play to be that transmission mechanism between fiscal monetary and the real economy. And I think you can just see in terms of in the early days how the markets were trading, a lot of the fears and concerns that were there and whether it was the early fears of draws, whether it was the early fears of money funds and being able to get liquidity across the board. And I think the programs have gone a long way. I think there’s still a few things out there that probably need some work. Certainly, as an institution, as an industry, we’re in constant dialogue with the fed and the treasury on those. And again, as I suspect, as those things create challenges, it’s likely that we will see a reaction come out of those bodies to be able to address it. So I think the plumbing is actually working pretty well. That in spite of working remotely in the numbers that Mark and I spoke to, we had, in late March, record volumes of trading, in terms of settlement, clearing, margin, margining in the system. And again, most of that done remotely and we all would have said to each other, 6, 9, 12 months ago, we’re going to model for this type of stress, we probably all would have been skeptical in terms of how the system performs. So I’m proud of how we’ve performed, and I’m quite pleased so far how the system has performed.

You saw us kind of put our balance sheet to use, and you saw the CET1 move from the 11.8% to the 11.2%, clearly leaving us lots of room, lots of buffer. And again, we’re early in this. We don’t know and — where this will go, but our gut or how we’re thinking about this is this recovery is going to be uneven. I would say that, as a team, we’ve pretty well discounted a uniform v-shaped recovery. The question is it U-shaped, is it W-shaped or parts of it L-shaped. And I think we want to retain a lot of flexibility and capacity to be able to step into the situations that count.

I mean, yes, what I said was that if you take the cards portfolio we have today, which is of a better quality than it was back in ’08, and you would destress it for the ’08 financial crisis that, yes, our pro forma loss rates would be 25% to 30% lower than what we experienced in the last crisis.

I think we’re expected to be there for our clients in a period like this. And you’ve seen our CET1 ratio drop to 11.2% this quarter. And as the needs of our clients evolve, we’re going to be there for them and if that means that our ratio takes more pressure, then we’ll manage through that. If we were to drop below the 10% you referenced, there’s still plenty of room between that and the use of the buffer that the regulators have authorized.

Answer – Michael L. Corbat: Yes. So, Betsy, I would say, kind of looking at the numbers, we had roughly right around about $30 billion, $32 billion worth of draws in the first quarter. So somewhere 10%, 11%, 12% of our outstanding, but unfunded. So I wouldn’t call that an overly meaningful number. And I think going back to my earlier comment to Glenn, I think that the extraordinary actions taken in the CP facilities in terms of some of the corporate facilities, some of the SBA or probably more likely the Main Street lending facilities alleviates a lot of that pressure.

I think we saw 2 things there. There were clearly those industries that were under stress and those were pretty easily identifiable, along the list that Mark had described. And then I think there were those that just believed that it was a good time to bring in liquidity. And I think as the Fed programs and the Treasury programs came into place, the bond markets reopened, you saw record issuance of debt in the late first quarter. And again, when you look at our portfolio, it’s predominantly an investment-grade portfolio, and that investment-grade portfolio in times with those programs in place has access to the capital markets, and so we saw people shift there.

Obviously, something we’re paying attention to. We’re in constant dialogue with our clients. But again, I think, certainly, coming into the second quarter, we’ve actually seen really de minimis draws on the facilities. And I think, in our dialogues, we don’t see or feel that pressure right now.

I would expect that, with that as a backdrop, and again, subject to a lot of things, including how customers respond to the relief programs that are out there, so on and so forth, that we would see additional builds in the second quarter.

And that’s kind of where we are. I mean, I’m not going to — we’ve got the rest of the quarter to play out. We’ve got analysis and models that we have to do. We have consumers that have to respond to much of the stimulus that’s out there. We’ve got to understand how it continues to impact the different businesses that we’re in. It’s way too early to give you any sense for what that number is.

So again, no stress scenario that’s been created thus far would have contemplated the amount of fiscal response and monetary response that we’ve seen in short order. And so that’s not modeled. And how customers or consumers react to that is not part of any CCAR or DFAST model that we would have run. How that offsets the impact of unemployment or, ultimately, losses is completely unclear. And so there’s a fair amount — yes, it’s a data point, but there’s a fair amount of uncertainty and now differences, I would expect, in light of now managing through a real-life scenario.

And in terms of as we — as I may have mentioned, I think I mentioned earlier, at some point, you’ve got to put a stake in the ground at the end of the quarter and look at the assumptions that we have to work with in terms of those thousands of variables and certainly the key ones that I mentioned. And this quarter, in particular, we’ve seen things continue to move. And so even the view that we would have taken at the end of the quarter, around many of those metrics, they have — the outlook on them has continued to shift. And so we find ourselves running various scenarios to understand the impact on our ratios and on our estimated losses, including ranges of unemployment from 10% to 15% and GDP declines from 20% to 40%. And we’re constantly kind of running those scenarios to understand the implications on our CET1 ratio and other important metrics that are required to properly run and manage and plan at the firm.

 

Bank of America

So when we weighted a scenario that produced clearly a recessionary outlook, which included a significant drop in GDP in the second quarter with negative GDP growth rates extending well into 2021, we also considered the impact of various groups of credits and stressed industries. And while small relative to the impact of scenario weighting, we incrementally factored that analysis into the sizing of our reserve build.

Obviously, there are many unknowns, including how government, fiscal and monetary actions will impact the outcome, but we can try to consider that as well. And we also had to consider how our own deferral programs will impact losses. But perhaps the biggest unknown is how long economic activities and conditions will be significantly impacted by the virus.. 

 

Morgan Stanley

Question – Chinedu Bolu: My first question is an ROTCE for the Firm or how to think about downside ROTCE. I mean, given you are putting up 10% ROTCE in what is a very choppy backdrop, how should investors now think about the downside case for the Firm? Is it 10% or close to 10% ROTC now your bottom line as opposed to a couple of years ago where that was your actual long-term target?

Answer – James Patrick Gorman: Well, Christian, let me take a go at it and by the way, we’re all coordinating from different locations here. So if Jon and I have a little logistical mess up, forgive us, but I can see him on the screen. So I think we’ll manage through it.

We’re in a most unprecedented environment. I mean, if you’d said 3 months ago, that 90% of our employees will be working from home and the Firm would be functioning fine, I’d say that, that is a test I’m not prepared to take because the downside of being wrong on that is massive. If you’d said that every restaurant around the country would be shut over a 2-week period and remain closed, I would say it’s just not physically possible. So we’re seeing — you saw the jobs numbers, the applications for unemployment benefits, et cetera, coming through. We’re in an extraordinary period. So listen, what I look at is how do the businesses perform underlying in this environment? How do we trade through it, what was our risk exposure and how do we manage that, where do we take hits across the various parts of the plant, and you’re going to take them, whether it’s in the margin book, whether it’s in the asset management portfolios, whether it’s in the trading businesses and how did all of that look? Now we didn’t have a full quarter of being in absolute crisis, we had a half quarter or 2/3 of a quarter being absolute crisis, but boy, it was an absolute crisis. And for this fund, we have come through that and generate $9.5 billion in revenue, and that’s net of the deferred compensation plans, which actually puts us a bit over $10 billion in revenue, effectively flat to a year ago. I thought was remarkable.

Now maybe it’s my job to think that’s remarkable. But I did think it was remarkable. I think the stability and breadth of the franchise, the diversification clearly showed that we have an underlying sort of backstop of our performance. I can’t tell you it’s 10% ROTCE. I know coming into the second quarter, we’ll have less market volume, we have lower interest rates, we have lower asset prices at the moment, although we reprice our assets every month, we’ll probably have lower non-comp expenses. I suspect, in the second quarter for a variety of reasons, there will be a lot of things going back and forth.

So is 10% a bottom? I don’t want to call that now because I just don’t know how deep this recession is going to be. But given what we went through to have produced that felt like a really resilient franchise.

Answer – Steven Joseph Chubak: Quite helpful. James, maybe a question for you. You spoke of some of the risk of the targets that you laid out at the start of the year, certainly not surprising given the world, using some of your words, is anything but normal. But admittedly, the message is a bit more cautious than maybe what you conveyed in your March shareholder letter. And I was hoping you could speak to on macro and market assumptions are informing your more cautious outlook. I know that there’s a wide range of outcomes to consider. But if we do see a U shape recovery beginning in ’21, is there a path to delivering on some of the targets that you outlined at the start of the year?

Answer – James Patrick Gorman: Yes, is the short answer. The macro environment that I’m making the assumptions on, I mean, take the $5 million — 5 million job claims this morning for unemployment benefits. I mean, this is — we’re in a wild period. We’re going to have negative GDP of, I don’t know, 30%. So short term, anybody — I don’t mean to disparage anybody, but a CEO who stands by their short-term targets that was set right before this virus hit, I don’t know what planet they’re on. It just — you just — you can’t, you can’t predict that. Over a 2-year period, yes, the targets were by the end of ’21 and there are the 3 targets, the pretax margin of 28% to 30%. The ROTCE, I think, of 13% to 15%, and the efficiency ratio is 72%. Sure, can we beat that by the end of 2021 on some of these targets? Definitely. But we said and have always said the targets are normalized environment. This is not a normalized environment. We will not hit those targets in the second quarter. That I can promise you, we did not hit them in the first quarter. But beyond that, let’s see how this plays out. If the equity markets recover, we’re not going to have mortgage prepay, our non-comps are going to be down. Obviously, we’re affected by where interest rates are. And if they change, obviously, if there’s any move upwards through 2021, that’s enormously helpful. And things start getting a lot more interesting 12 months from now than they are right now. But honestly, it would be irresponsible of me to recommit to those targets on this call.

Now on the annual letter, that was different. What I’ve seen in the annual letter was these were our targets we laid out in 2019. We’re not ignoring them. We’re not hiding from them. Than what we believe that the business will perform at in a normalized environment. And it will — I’m totally confident about that. But for right now, given we’re dealing with an earnings call and the earnings outlook, right now, those targets are not achievable in the second quarter. They weren’t achieved in the first quarter, and it’s too early to make the call on what 2021 looks like. But Steven, to your question, is it possible? It’s absolutely possible. Is it probable? At this point, you could — nobody could say that it’s probable. You got to see what the environment plays at it.

 

CONSUMER SPENDING

Bank of America

We saw a severe immediate decline in discretionary payments for travel, leisure and other things that you’ve read about in entertainment that you expected. This was followed immediately by large increases in payments for necessities around groceries and staples like health supplies, et cetera. Then as large cities and states began to move to voluntary and mandated stay-at-home status orders, we saw large declines in debit and credit card spending into other categories.

At the same time, we’ve also noted a stabilizing going on and the level of payments in other areas like ACH cash, wires and P2P payments. The broader measure is the black line in the chart. As you can see, overall client payments have declined but remained at a high single-digit pace year-over-year, moving down from double-digit pace to around 8%. The total movement in the U.S. has been pulled down by a significant decline in the card spending, which is more than — which have been affected by the travel, entertainment and other related areas in retail areas. And that’s gone from 7% to 8% to only 2% increases in the month of March, and it has fallen into negative territory in April.

The overall spending, however, of all types of spending in our customers seems to have stabilized in the last few weeks. During mid-April, we’re seeing spending run at about a low $50 billion average level compared to a $60 billion average level before the crisis. That’s per week spending. We’ll see how that plays out through this quarter, and that stability may provide insight to the level of economy activity in a shutdown status.

 

Citi

Client engagement remained strong through February with purchase sales growth of roughly 10% for the first 2 months of the quarter. However, as seen across the industry, purchase sales declined significantly in late March with the implementation of more extensive lockdowns in many states. Categories like travel and entertainment have seen the biggest impact, while there has been some offset from higher spending on essentials as well as higher online sales. So in total, we grew purchase sales 3% in Branded Cards in the first quarter, but the trend line over the past month would indicate a significant decline in purchase activity in the second quarter, which is expected to impact loan growth.

And so, in the quarter, if I think about kind of the last week of March, the card spend activity, just broadly for us, was down about 30%, U.S. spend by category down a total of 30%. The big categories, if you will, impacted are not going to be of any surprise to you: travel, down 75%; dining and entertainment, down some 60%; discretionary retail, which would include apparel, the department stores, et cetera, down 50%; essentials were up 10%. And so as you would — as I think you would expect, and again, that got us to a total of down about 30% in just the last week. We all have seen what has continued to happen over the past couple of weeks. And so I would expect — we would expect there to be continued pressure on purchase sale volumes through most of the second quarter, in light of the way this is persisting, and that should play out as well on, ultimately, loan volumes and we should expect to see some top line pressure there.

Similarly, as you’ve referenced, we have a large retail services business and we have partner clients who we advise in that regard, and we’ve been working with them to help drive sales digitally. But obviously, the shutdown of most of the economy and the stay-at-home orders as well as the temporary store closures across most of the country will certainly impact our partners and our results, including a slowdown in new customer acquisitions as well as, again, a lower purchase sales volumes — volume through that part of our business.

 

JPMorgan Chase

In March, we saw a rapid decline in spend initially in travel and entertainment, which then spread to restaurants and retail as social distancing protocols were implemented more broadly. While most spend categories were ultimately impacted, we did see an initial boost to supermarkets, wholesale clubs and discount stores as people stocked up on provisions, but even that is now starting to normalize. And we saw similar trends in merchant services as highlighted in the significant decline in brick-and-mortar spend, excluding supermarkets, whereas e-commerce spend has held up well by comparison

 

Wells Fargo
Our customers also meaningfully reduced their card spending late in the first quarter due to the impact of the pandemic. During the first 2 months of the year, credit card volumes were up from a year ago, while March 2020 volumes declined approximately 15% from March 2019, resulting in first quarter credit card purchase volumes being down 1% from a year ago. We also had meaningful shifts in customer spending in March with grocery and pharmacy spending increasing, while all other categories were down from a year ago. Debit card spending trends were similarly impacted, but the change in spend was less significant with year-over-year growth in January and February and a 5% decline in year-over-year volumes in March. Similar to credit card, debit card spending shifted significantly to grocery in March, but the growth in this category started to slow in the last week of the month.

 

GUIDANCE

Citi

With that said, given the adverse impact of COVID-19, we no longer expect to deliver the RoTCE of 12% to 13% for the full year. Based on what we are seeing today, on the top line, we expect the revenue trend in the latter part of March and the beginning of April, characterized by COVID-related lower level of activity, particularly in banking and our consumer franchise, will continue through much of the second quarter. And in our Markets business, revenue should reflect the broader industry. The first quarter is typically the strongest quarter. And clearly, this year was particularly strong, so we would expect some normalization in activity levels here. And finally, we will see the more pronounced impact of the lower rate environment on the top line.

Looking ahead to the second quarter and the remainder of 2020, we do expect a higher level of losses given our current outlook. And as our outlook continues to evolve, it is also reasonable to expect additional increases in credit reserves if our outlook deteriorates further. However, given the credit quality of our portfolio, we remain confident in our ability to maintain our overall strength and stability as well as continue to support our customers and win new business. Undoubtedly, every company around the world will feel an economic impact from this unprecedented situation, but we are confident that Citi will emerge in a position of strength, having demonstrated that we lived up to our stated objective to be an indisputably strong and stable institution and having shown that we stood by our clients and supported our customers and employees ring this very difficult time.

 

Wells Fargo

Question – Kenneth Michael Usdin: Yes, exactly, Charlie. And second question, John, understanding fully the pulling away from giving full year guidance, is there a way you can help us understand on the NII front just how you’d expect the trajectory at least to go from first to second given the changes and all the moving parts that were in this quarter’s results?

Answer – John Richard Shrewsberry: Yes. It’s a fair question, but not quite yet. We’ve got the — I think we’re all forecasting something like 0 in the front end or depending on where LIBOR moves over time and then some number between, call it, 70 and 100 basis points at the long end. How deposit pricing reacts to that, and it came down in this quarter and we anticipate it coming down rapidly over the course of the remainder of the year, will be a big driver. What of these recent balances that we just booked stick versus those that have been dialed back down, I think will be a big driver. So not looking for NII growth, I’m sure it’ll be down by some amount, but we’re not being any more precise. And hopefully, by the time we get to either mid or at the end of the second quarter, we’ll be in a position to be a little bit more declarative about that.

 

DEPOSITS

Morgan Stanley

And we did see a surge in deposits in March, almost $30 billion in the month of March alone. And the balances are up $45 billion for the quarter. That was generally a result of people shifting out of equities and going into cash in the wealth system. You can see, I think, on Page 11 of the supplement, Christian, that the various balances in the banks. Right now, most of that excess cash — excuse me, excess deposits is actually sitting in cash. You can see we increased our loans a little bit. We’ve increased our securities portfolio a little bit, but most of that cash is undeployed and we’ll have to see around the resilience of that. Our expectations is that it will be pretty sticky for a while. But again, depending on what our clients do as investment options, that might come down a bit. But it clearly puts us in a much better position. I think our BDP, which is our cheapest source of deposits, which currently have a cost of 1 basis point is now about 65% of the portfolio. It was closer to [60%] or [58%] a little while ago. Our high-cost deposits, I think, the blend between the CDs and some of the other products we have in there is about 160 basis points.

And so obviously, as we can shift more to BDP, that will be significantly beneficial, and I think our deposit cost at the end of the quarter were about 56 or 57 basis points, and those should come down a little bit as we’ve just repriced our savings product down in light of the rate environment.

So I would say we should — if we had the opportunity to deploy those deposits into loans, we’ll see a benefit there clearly, but we’re going to be cautious and just see how those deposits behave for a little while before we sort of fully deploy them.

 

Goldman Sachs

Answer – Steven Joseph Chubak: So wanted to start off with a question on funding. One of the biggest drivers of the ROTCE build you laid out at Investor Day was the $1 billion benefit from funding optimization. And we tracked the deposit costs pretty closely, we’ve seen a lot of your competitors aggressively match the Fed rate cuts, but you’ve maintained very competitive deposit payouts. Certainly helped contribute to strong deposit growth this quarter. I was just hoping you could update us on how your deposit strategy is evolving in the low rate environment and whether the flat yield curve and still-elevated deposit payouts could impact that $1 billion fund benefit you cited at Investor Day.

Answer – Stephen M. Scherr: Sure. Thank you, Steve. So let me start with sort of strategy around rate. We took our rate down actually yesterday in the U.S. relative to where it had been. Our strategy remains unchanged in that regard, which is we aim to be certainly not the top rate payer but somewhere in the 3 or 4 category. And we’ll continue to do that with an eye toward building out greater product attributes and a more formidable relationship with depositors such that we rely less on rate in the context of both drawing and maintaining deposits. But it’s against that strategy that we saw, at least for us, record inflows on the deposit side.

In terms of the medium-term target which we set out in Investor Day of achieving $1 billion of savings, occasioned by the migration of our funding mix, that’s no less an imperative for us now than it was then. And I’d simply point out that the market will pull some volatility into that measurement. So again, this is a medium-term target that we will achieve. We will move closer and closer to 50% of our funding in deposits.

The amount or the delta of savings, if you will, will be a function of where we take deposit rates in as much as where wholesale funding obviously takes itself. And I think, particularly in this market and most notably in March, this was a really good, very stable source of funding for us.

But I think the forward trajectory, both as a strategy and then equally as it relates to our ability to harvest the kind of savings that we talked about over the medium term is one that we are going adhere to and watch and achieve.

 

Citi

Answer – Betsy Lynn Graseck: Got it. And then on the deposit side, can you give us a sense as to the percentage of the draws that went into deposits and how you think about the persistency of those deposits as well.

Answer – Mark A.L. Mason: Let me comment a little bit more broadly on the deposits. So the ICG deposits that we saw come in, in the month of March, were about $92 billion. So deposits grew pretty significantly just in the month of March. And if I break that down, about 1/3 of that were from corporate clients that built liquidity through draws or issuance. And it’s not necessarily just liquidity, just draws from us, but about 1/3 of it, we would attribute as being tied towards that increase in liquidity draws or issuances that they’ve done. About 1/3 were from broker-dealers and clearing houses and financial institutions as they bolstered kind of their liquidity buffers and then 1/3 were from investor clients derisking and moving to cash.

And so that gives you a little bit of a sense for the mix. We obviously look at the persistency of the deposits and some of those are certainly operating deposits. And I think part of what will inform the view to some extent is, as Mike described, the additional channels that are now available for clients to access additional liquidity as needed, but also how long this persists. And there’s a fair amount of uncertainty, as you heard us reference as to how long this crisis we’re managing through persists. So hopefully, that gives you a sense.

 

DIVIDEND

Citi

And again, I think, as we said, I think there’s 2 roles, one is how do we use our own balance sheet and then how do we actually use and bring to life a lot of these programs and continued programs that are being put out there by the Fed and the Treasury. So in the right situations, we’re prepared to let that ratio go down. We’re in conversations with our Board. We are in conversations with our regulator. And I think, Mark said, we feel that we’ve got a lot of capacity in terms of capital and things that we can do before we get near triggering any conversations around dividend. But again, we’re going to — we’ll treat that as a time when it comes. But to be clear, in our capacity here and the way we’re looking at things, we remain committed to paying our dividend.

 

JPMorgan Chase

It’s worth noting here that an environment like this is precisely why we have the buffers in the first place. We currently also have capacity and intend to continue to pay the $0.90 dividend pending Board approval. And as you can see in the CET1 walk on the bottom left, it is a small claim on our capital base.

 

Goldman Sachs

As it relates to our dividend, given our continued earnings generation and solid capital position, we feel comfortable maintaining our dividend.

 

Bank of America

But in terms of the dividend, we kept the dividend payout ratio below 30% of the sort of normalized earnings level. And we did it for a reason that we — one of our operating principles is we wanted to maintain a dividend. And given what we know, we’ve done twice the dividend this quarter at $0.40 versus an $0.18 payout ratio, and we expect that to continue. And that shows you the 100-plus basis points, 130 basis points of excess capital. We’ve tested it lots of ways, as you might expect.

As we talk to our Board about capital management, as we talk to our Board about dividends at any given time, we’re showing them severely adverse cases, adverse cases and thinking through the pretax PPNR capability of withstanding different reserve builds and outcomes. And so that’s what we’re doing, and we plan to keep it going.

 

Wells Fargo

Well, listen, I think certainly, the dividends are certainly important for all of those that own the stock. And ultimately, those that wind up benefiting from stock ownership are individuals in one way or another, whether it’s direct holdings or whether it’s pension plans and things like that. And so I think the income stream that people come to rely on, especially at times like this, is important, but there has to be an underlying ability for companies to be able to pay. And so to the extent that they have that ability to pay, I certainly think it’s the right thing to do for the reasons that I just said. We have strong capital ratios. We do all the stress tests and whatnot that John referred to and determine our ability to return capital in these severely stressed environments. Also remind you that for us, we are slightly different than others because of the balance sheet cap. So our balance sheet cap does limit our ability to deploy capital internally. And so based on that, that’s why we sit here and look at it and say that we think the dividends certainly that we’re paying makes sense. But as I alluded in my prior comments, we don’t know what the future looks like. Based upon the assumptions that we’ve laid out in these very stressed environments, we do feel good about it. But ultimately, the timing and the pace of the recovery is going to determine earnings capacity for everyone to be able to continue to support the level of dividends.

And also, I’d add to Charlie’s view, though, that as the quarters unfold and we figure out how long we’re going to be in this economic state and what the path forward looks like and we use that to interpret and estimate what our go-forward earnings trajectory looks like, that’s the context for understanding what the steady state dividend should look like. So in terms of what this year’s dividend looks like versus this year’s consensus or estimated earnings during a time of stress is less germane, I think, than, a, the fact that we start with ample capital; and b, what we think our run rate, more steady state earnings are on the way out of this and reflect what the dividend is in light of that. Hope that’s helpful. But yes, the point that Charlie was making about the fact that we’re not really in a position to go out and generate substantial incremental RWA through outsized loan origination is an important one and a distinguishing one versus others who may be doing that right now and expanding their balance sheet intentionally.

 

Conversations about ESG increase amid COVID-19

Interested in learning more about ESG? Download AlphaSense’s latest sustainable success report Understanding ESG: Why It Matters and How to Prepare for the Future“. 

As businesses press forward amid the global Coronavirus pandemic, one new trend has surfaced: more companies are talking about and investing in ESG practices. This week, JPMorgan Chase noted that ESG funds are outperforming the wider market. 

For investors and corporations alike, the new question is: “will COVID-19 accelerate interest in ESG criteria?”

Note: The following takeaways were pulled from news, earnings calls, and company filings within the AlphaSense platform. For full quotes/excerpts, scroll below or login to AlphaSense.

High-Level Takeaways:

  • According to the Financial Times, ESG funds are outperforming the wider market. Trends like telecommuting, distance learning, and telemedicine are helping produce positive social change. 
  • Companies like Paypal and General Mills released their ESG reports during Q1 Earnings Season.
  • UN Principles for Responsible Investing (PRI) issued a note to its signatories pointing out that if the business world was going to survive the coronavirus outbreak, it was imperative that long-term investors keep their nerve and stick with sustainable companies — even if it meant losing out on some short-term gains.
  • Some company executives are deferring or refusing their own compensation packages in order to cut costs and help employees.

Broker & Investor Takeaways:

  • Morgan Stanley: “COVID-19 crisis looks likely to alter the way that investors assess corporate governance.” (Source: Financial Times – “Big data shows Covid-19 reshaping ESG; UN PRI’s long-term crisis plan; sustainable funds stand tall”)
  • Barclays: “COVID-19 will accelerate this trend [towards ESG] even further — creating a greater sense of urgency and responsibility toward everything from consumer behavior to climate change, supply-chain practices and the future of work and mobility — and potentially alter the nature of the investment process as a result.” (Source: Financial Times – “Big data shows Covid-19 reshaping ESG; UN PRI’s long-term crisis plan; sustainable funds stand tall”)
  • Bank of America: “corporate response to COVID-19 exemplifies the “S” in ESG and points out that “companies allocating resources to the COVID-19 crisis are likely to foster employee and community goodwill and to enhance brand and reputation.” (Source: Financial Times – “Big data shows Covid-19 reshaping ESG; UN PRI’s long-term crisis plan; sustainable funds stand tall”)
  • The latest evidence of ESG’s strong showing during the coronavirus crisis comes from BlackRock, which has launched new ESG ETFs this year.  “We see a sustainable investing wave playing out in financial markets over the coming decades,” BlackRock said this week. “This year’s fund flows may offer a miniature version of this shift.”  (Source: BlackRock – Q1 Earnings Call Transcript)

U.S. Government Takeaways:

  • ESG Investors are paying close attention to how companies are lobbying in Washington and how corporations are helping or hurting small businesses.
  • On the same day that the White House announced projections that 100,000 to 240,000 Americans are likely to die from coronavirus, the Environmental Protection Agency introduced a controversial new federal rule that will relax mileage standards. (Associated Press – Trump uses coronavirus crisis to push his broader agenda)
  • The US Environmental Protection Agency has said it will not enforce certain environmental regulations during the coronavirus outbreak (FT  – Amazon’s Covid-19 conundrum; polluters capitalise on chaos; CEOs plan post-pandemic life)
  • The American Petroleum Institute, which represents the US oil and gas industry, sent a letter to the Trump administration requesting relief from some regulatory requirements to ensure steady supplies during the coronavirus. The administration has since announced it will temporarily ease some environmental enforcement.

Global Economy Takeaways:

  • The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund estimate that the economic costs for Africa due to the Coronvavirus are likely to be approximately $100 billion (or 5 percent of the continent’s GDP.) (World Bank – Press Release)
  • While many argue that the coronavirus outbreak has caused executives in the US and Europe to accelerate their adoption of ESG principles, ESG advocates are deeply concerned that the pandemic will have the opposite effect in Japan. (BlackRock in Financial Times)

Don’t miss critical insights: AlphaSense recently launched an ESG filter to help clients hone in on ESG-specific content (Sustainability/CSR Reports, Environmental Health & Governance Reports, Carbon Disclosure Reports, etc.) Sign up for a free trial or login here to explore the tool.

[Note: We are updating this post and our compilation post to reflect the most recent commentary. Last updated 5/5.]

Newmont Corporation (4/29 – Earnings Call Transcript)

In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, our purpose to create value and improve lives through sustainable and responsible mining is more relevant today than ever before.

 

Moody’s Corp (4/29 – Earnings Call Transcript)

We are also supporting our local communities, including providing our employees with virtual opportunities to volunteer and the recently announced $1 million program of charitable donations and other supporting measures addressing both the immediate and long-term impacts of the pandemic. This follows an initial donation in January to aid in medical relief in China. The program includes global and local grants that are a mixture of humanitarian and other aid to address the impact of COVID-19 on small businesses and education systems. I encourage you to learn more about these and other key corporate social responsibility initiatives in our CSR report published earlier this week and at our micro site, moodys.com/csr.

Lastly, we are lending our expertise to governments and policymakers to help mitigate the coronavirus’ impact and plan for recovery. Our information and analysis has been critical, for example, in helping to inform stimulus programs and the allocation of fiscal support. These commitments to our stakeholders exemplify Moody’s purpose to bring clarity, knowledge and fairness to an interconnected world.

 

Goldman Sachs (4/29 – Earnings Call Transcript)

The business roundtable statement of the purpose of the corporation signed by our company marks a monumental potential shift as showing greater purpose of a firm beyond short-term shareholder primacy, recognizing all stakeholders are as important as shareholders and delivering long-term value to the company and prosperity to society. The statement has the potential to become reality if adopted as policy and stated in our company’s governance documents.

To be clear, the stakes cannot be higher as the COVID-19 pandemic grips through every economy on the planet, how well our company answer the call to support communities and crisis in sustainable ways.

 

Avangrid Inc (4/29 – Earnings Call Transcript)

We’ve also accessed long-term clean energy funding in the first quarter, placing $237 million of tax equity financing and issuing our third Green Bond to finance our renewables projects. This Green Bond of $750 million brings our total Green Bond debt to $2.1 billion, which makes us the seventh largest issuer in the U.S. of green, social and sustainability bonds and the fifth largest in the sector. The transaction was very successful, being 2.8x oversubscribed, and with 58% of the proceeds allocated to ESG-focused investors. While treasury rates had dropped due to COVID-19, the spreads were wider than we had expected pre-COVID, bringing our financing costs higher than originally estimated and increasing the potential for higher financing costs on future financings in 2020, which we’ve estimated at approximately $9 million pretax, including this Green Bond.

 

Norfolk Southern Group (4/29 – Earnings Call Transcript)

Where you saw some pretty considerable supply reactions on the truckload side to a steep downturn in spot prices. So for us, it means continuing to collaborate with our best-in-class supply chain partners and our channel partners on how we give them an exceptional service product, how we look for new opportunities, new lanes for them to grow into. And then it’s also selling the things that are going to be pretty darn valuable post-COVID-19, which is capacity, a lower cost structure than truck, it’s service and it’s ESG. And we’ve got the best intermodal franchise in the East. So we’re in great shape there.

 

AT&T (4/24 – Annual Shareholders Meeting Transcript)

Stacey S. Maris, AT&T Inc. – Senior VP, Assistant General Counsel & Secretary

The next order of business is the proposal submitted by Jing Zhao. This is item 6. The proposal is now before the meeting. Mr. Zhao has submitted the following statement in support of the proposal. It is regrettable that our Board opposed my proposal to improve guiding principles of executive compensation by reducing the executive pay and the CEO pay ratio, especially under the current global and national crisis of the coronavirus pandemic and economic recession. It is right time for our executives to take the social responsibility on your own initiative as patriotic citizensPlease vote for proposal item 6.

 

Discover Financial Services (4/16 – Earnings Call Transcript)

Let me close by summarizing some of the actions we have taken to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. We have shifted virtually all of our employees to work-from-home in a sustainable model that still continues to provide an industry-leading customer experience across all of our productsWe have taken swift and meaningful action to adjust our credit policies to reflect the new environment, continuing to lend, but with tightened standards for new accounts and for growing existing accounts.

We are implementing expense reduction initiatives while preserving key investments that will allow us to grow our business over the long term, and we are prepared for additional actions as the environment evolves. While our capital position is strong, we have suspended our share repurchase program in order to enhance our capital base.

 

General Mills (4/17 – ESG Report: Global Responsibility)

In our 50th year of reporting our social and environmental performance to stakeholders, we remain committed to disclosing our progress, as well as our challenges.
In addition to financial results, we also prioritize environmental and social performance, where we can unleash our global scale for great social and environmental impact.
 

BlackRock (4/16 – Trade Journal)

BlackRock has further accelerated its sustainability credentials with the launch of an active equity impact fund, which claims to be among the first to directly help drive the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The new BlackRock Global Impact fund will be focused on investing in companies addressing major world challenges that fit within BlackRock’s proprietary impact themes.

These include increasing access to quality education and affordable housing, advancing healthcare innovation to help with societal challenges, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, expanding financial and digital inclusion, preventing climate change, reversing environmental degradation, and increasing efficiencies in water usage and deployment.

The addition of the impact strategy forms part of BlackRock’s continued efforts to expand its sustainable investment platform as it delivers against its commitment to make sustainability its standard for investing.

 

Merck (4/15 – Corporate Responsibility Report)

In 2019, this international expert committee focused particularly on digital ethics. If we develop new business models based on artificial intelligence and Big Data, we need clear guidelines, for example in handling patient data. As a result of these discussions, we have established a Digital Ethics Board to address ethical issues related to data use and algorithms.
 
 This example also shows that we want to maximize the benefits of our work – and minimize the risks. The same applies with regard to environmental impact. In the next two years, for example, we will reduce by one-fifth the amount of polystyrene packaging used for products from our Life Science business sector and increase the proportion of recyclable materials. We are currently working intensively to embed the various aspects of sustainability in the strategies of our business sectors. This includes a new climate target that we will set in 2020. The recent outbreak of the novel coronavirus has once again underscored the importance of pandemic prevention.
 

BlackRock (4/15 – Financial Times)

ESG to take centre stage at virtual AGMs

While investors around the world are nervous about how shareholder meetings will be conducted virtually this year because of the coronavirus crisis, companies are also fretting about the votes they face on ESG topics.

About 66 per cent of shareholder proposals filed for the 2020 voting season deal with environmental and social issues as opposed to governance topics, said Nuveen, an asset manager, in a proxy voting preview report on Tuesday. Also this year, 77 per cent of the environmental proposals deal with climate change, Nuveen said.

Tips from Tamami

While many argue that the coronavirus outbreak has caused executives in the US and Europe to accelerate their adoption of ESG principles, ESG advocates are deeply concerned that the pandemic will have the opposite effect in Japan.

“My fear is the trend will be delayed, rather than get faster”, said Kenji Fuma, chief executive and founder of Neural, an ESG investment advisory company.

Mr Fuma, who is known as an evangelist of ESG in Japan, explains that there is a misconception among Japanese executives that ESG is an act of charity. “So, it would be natural for them to stop [considering ESG aspects] when their profits have been declining due to the coronavirus crisis,” he said.

 

JPMorgan Chase & Co (4/14 – Trade Journal)

Major ESG investment funds outperforming S&P 500 during COVID-19: Some of the biggest investment funds set up with environmental, social and governance criteria are outperforming the broader market during the coronavirus crisis.

 

Citywire (4/14 – AMs will turn to ESG to fill gap caused by COVID-19 outflows)

In a market update, [Fitch Ratings] said those able to offer credible ESG-orientated investment options will be able to help alleviate the outflows experienced during the Covid-19 outbreak.

Fitch said, while there has already been a longer-term focus on ESG, this should continue to be supported by increased pressure on governments to correlate stimulus aid to emission controls, evolving consumer behavior and the attitudes of younger generations as they increasingly benefit from the transfer of wealth from baby boomers.

 

PPL Corp (4/14 – Sustainability Report)

… In 2019 we:
Became the U.K.’s first network operator to publish an electric vehicle strategy.
• Continued to connect more distributed generation and renewables to our U.K. networks, with more than 6 gigawatts of renewables connected to date.
• Secured regulatory approval in Kentucky for a Green Energy tariff for businesses and continued to enhance our solar offerings for all customers.
• Launched PPL Electric’s innovative Distributed Energy Resource Management System to enable more distributed energy resources, like solar power and energy storage, to connect reliably to the grid.
• Executed agreements to acquire, develop, own and operate 110 megawatts of solar generation capacity
 
I want to reassure shareowners, customers and other stakeholders that PPL is fully prepared to maintain electricity and gas service safely and reliably as our customers and the communities we serve tackle the extraordinary challenge of coronavirus. We have well-tested business continuity plans in place, we are executing those plans, and we are committed to helping our customers through these trying times.
 
 The global spread of the virus has shown us how truly connected we are. We have contributed more than $1.6 million to relief efforts in Pennsylvania, Kentucky and the U.K to help our neighbors through these diftcult times. And, our employees are committed to powering the communities where we live and work.
 

Financial Times  (4/11 – Aircraft emissions fall sharply as pandemic grounds flights)

Aeroplane emissions fell by almost a third last month as the coronavirus lockdown grounded flights around the world, a drop in emissions equivalent of taking about 6m cars off the road.

An FT analysis of more than 6m flights, using data from FlightRadar24, found that as much as 28m fewer tonnes of carbon dioxide were emitted in March as nearly 1m flights were cancelled globally. This is equivalent to a month of the UK’s total carbon dioxide emissions and constitutes a drop of 31 per cent from the comparable period last year.

 

Financial Times  (4/8 – Big data shows Covid-19 reshaping ESG; UN PRI’s long-term crisis plan; sustainable funds stand tall)

Barclays is starting a new ESG research publication that argues “Covid-19 will accelerate this trend [towards ESG] even further — creating a greater sense of urgency and responsibility toward everything from consumer behaviour to climate change, supply-chain practices and the future of work and mobility — and potentially alter the nature of the investment process as a result.” 

Meanwhile, Bank of America argues that the “corporate response to Covid-19 exemplifies the “S” in ESG and points out that “companies allocating resources to the Covid-19 crisis are likely to foster employee and community goodwill and to enhance brand and reputation.” Indeed, it calculates for the US that “the initial round of corporate giving amounts to more than $875m in cash donations while forbearance and deferred collection of interest, rent and telco/utility bills could dwarf this amount.”

 

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (4/8 – Trade Journal)

“One of the most important challenges facing the world right now is finding ways to massively increase global food supply in a way that also manages environmental impacts and meets the needs of an increasingly health-conscious consumer,” said Paul Dellaquila, President of Defiance ETFs.

GreenBIZ reported, “Amid the white noise of COVID-19 pandemic coverage last week, news about the $80 million funding round for alternative protein company Nature’s Fynd offered a bright beacon of positivity. While the financing revelation was delayed a week because of the crisis, the sizeable round extends the steady growth of funding for this particular niche of the overall agtech space.”

Agtech and sustainable agriculture are the wave of the future and not only in the face of the coronavirus pandemic but also as an ally in the fight against climate change moving forward. 

 

Just Food Trade Journal (4/7 – Consumer Trends Post-COVID)

KAM Media’s MD Katy Moses suggests that following the initial period of “unleashed consumption”, two main types of consumer will emerge. The first will be those who suffered from a “bad case of cabin fever” and want to be more sociable than ever. She says these people will look to dine out more and get back to travelling. The second will be people who have become more connected to the home environment. Moses talks about consumers who have enjoyed working from home, cooking and spending more time with their children.

She outlines six trends that will define the post-coronavirus consumer: hyper-connectivity; virtual experience economy; ambient wellness; delivery; more interest in corporate social responsibility; and connection and collaboration.

 

SNL Daily Gas Report (4/6 – Daily Report)

A large number of environmental and citizen groups asked leaders in the federal government and state governments to place a moratorium on the construction and approval of natural gas pipeline and LNG export terminal projects during the COVID-19 pandemic.

A coalition of about 200 groups including environmental advocates Sierra Club and Delaware Riverkeeper Network made the request in an April 3 letter to the U.S. Congress, state governors and attorneys general, the U.S. EPA and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

 

SNL Daily Gas Report (4/6 – How the coronavirus is temporarily reshaping the ESG discussion)

The coronavirus has brought workforce management and other social sustainability issues into the limelight as shareholder engagement on climate change has slowed to nearly a standstill.

To prevent the spread of the coronavirus and given the recommendations of health officials, governments around the world are ordering non-essential workers to stay home and banning large gatherings. Add to this the rapid increase in people contracting the virus and companies in the retail, travel, hospitality, and other sectors are losing money. Many are therefore laying off or furloughing workers even as nations move to pass emergency funding legislation to support those workers and their companies.

The changes are causing social issues in the sustainability movement to become the focus of shareholder discussions, say experts.

 

Tractor Supply Co (4/6 – Press Release)

Beginning in early March as the COVID-19 crisis evolved, we saw a significant increase in our comparable store sales with a focus in our consumable categories such as companion animal food, livestock feed and heating fuel and other core categories like agricultural fencing, safes, generators and sustainable living.

 

Home Depot (4/6 – Definitive Proxy)

We have highlighted for you below some actions we took in Fiscal 2019 to ensure we are optimizing our governance practices to support continued value creation over the long term. And while this letter focuses primarily on Fiscal 2019, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, our focus today is on operating our business while taking care of our customers and associates.

 

Associated Press (4/5 – Trump uses coronavirus crisis to push his broader agenda)

ADMINISTRATION ROLLS BACK MILEAGE STANDARDS

On the same day that the White House announced projections that 100,000 to 240,000 Americans are likely to die from coronavirus, the Environmental Protection Agency introduced a controversial new federal rule that will relax mileage standards for years to come.

The rollback is a victory for Americans who like their SUVs and pickup trucks, but it’s hardly without a cost. The government’s own projections indicate that the new standards also mean more Americans will die from air pollution, and there will be more climate-damaging tailpipe exhaust and more expense for drivers at the gas pumps.

Trump hailed the new rule as reason for Americans to go out and buy big, new cars.

 

Waters Corporation (4/5 – Definitive Proxy)

Waters Corporation’s products and services, such as chromatography systems and consumables, mass spectrometry systems, and thermal analysis technologies contribute directly to the advancement of human health and well-being by playing a vital role in the creation of efficacious medical therapies, a safer food and environmental ecosystem, and higher quality materials we depend upon in many aspects of daily life. The importance of these contributions could never be more clear than during our global battle with COVID-19.

We are a values-centered organization, with approximately 7,500 employees around the world dedicated to delivering benefit to all of our stakeholders, including our customers, fellow employees, stockholders, and society. We are dedicated to purposeful innovation, developing our people and deploying leading sustainability practices.

 

CenturyLink (4/4 – Environment, Social, and Governance Report)

CenturyLink prepares for any number of potential impacts to our network services and our operation by evaluating various risks to our ongoing operations when considering siting new facilities and/or expanding our network. These risks include climate change related events such as more frequent and/or intense flooding, windstorms, hurricanes/ cyclones, storm surge, etc.
 
 Annually, the BCM team requires each functional group to evaluate the criticality of their business processes at the location or asset level. Critical processes are subject to a business impact analysis which includes criteria for materiality and priorities. Maximum allowable downtimes are identified which drive the recovery time objectives for critical processes and systems. The hazards/threats that are possible outcomes of climate change that are included in this process include flooding from rising ocean levels or increased severe weather, disruption to our supply chain, loss of people or facilities due to disruptive natural phenomena such as tornadoes, cyclones, tsunamis, hurricanes, drought, wildfires, and other extreme weather events as well as displacement of populations and civil
unrest. The overall business continuity strategy, processes, and results are communicated to the executive leadership team and made available to all employees.
 
 Our industry faces many environmental challenges, and CenturyLink is committed to working toward solving them. CenturyLink uses remote work strategies to minimize the impact to customers and the environment during disasters, and pandemics. Further evidence to CenturyLink’s commitment and response to the recent COVID-19 pandemic is outlined here: https://news.centurylink.com/covid-19
 
Environmentally sound data center design and the use of virtualization technology contribute to
the resiliency, high availability, and recoverability of our operations.
 
 

The Independent (4/3 – Coronavirus could trigger biggest fall in global carbon dioxide since Second World War, scientists say)

The coronavirus pandemic could mean this year’s world carbon dioxide pollution output falls by the largest amount in over 70 years, according to a network of scientists examining emissions data.

Rob Jackson, chair of the Global Carbon Project, which produces widely watched annual emissions estimates, said carbon dioxide output could fall by more than 5 percent year-on-year – the first dip since a 1.4 percent reduction after the 2008 financial crisis.

“I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 5 percent or more drop in carbon dioxide emissions this year, something not seen since the end of World War Two,” said Professor Jackson, of Stanford University in California.

 

SEB (4/3 – ARS)

Sustainability has been high on SEB’s agenda for many years. As the effects of climate change become more tangible, our customers’ demand for sustainable products and services is increasing. The financial industry is now at the verge of a shift towards offering truly sustainable finance, as climate risk partially translates into investment risk. Corporate customers are ready to make the transition towards a low-carbon economy, and many entrepreneurs want to do good for the climate. Private customers are eager to invest in green technology and want to place their savings where it can benefit the next generation. Our role at SEB in sustainable finance is to provide solutions so that individual customers can fulfil their needs and reach their objectives. We innovate new sustainable financial services, we provide advice and investments, and we support our corporate and institutional customers in their transition to more sustainable business model.

 

Amazon (4/1 – Amazon’s Covid-19 conundrum; polluters capitalise on chaos; CEOs plan post-pandemic life)

The US Environmental Protection Agency has said it will not enforce certain environmental regulations during the coronavirus outbreak — citing staffing shortages and social distancing requirements that may make it difficult for companies to “meet enforceable limitations on air emissions and water discharges, requirements for the management of hazardous waste, or requirements to ensure and provide safe drinking water”.

The temporary policy does not apply to any criminal violations, the EPA said, nor does it apply to imports, especially pesticides that claim to address Covid-19.

Most striking of all, on Tuesday, the Trump administration rolled back tough car emissions standards approved under President Barack Obama.

 

British American Tobacco PLC (3/31 – Environmental, Social, and Governance Report)

Utilising their scientific expertise, Kentucky BioProcessing, is now using the tobacco plant to design a vaccine for coronavirus. Using the coronavirus’ genetic sequence as published by the Chinese Government, we are able to infect fast-growing tobacco plants with a genetically modified coronavirus to see if they can produce antibodies for a possible vaccine.
 
 It’s too early to say if it could be ready for human use, though our technology has the advantage of being faster and safer compared to conventional vaccine production technology, which uses
eggs. We have offered our help to the US government as part of an international effort to deal with this epidemic

 

Alexion Pharmaceuticals (3/31 – Corporate Social Responsibility Report)

This is especially important during a global health crisis like the current COVID-19 pandemic. Information about our response to this critical issue can be found on our website…
 
In 2019, we took major steps to formalize our CSR commitment. This report, titled Brighter Futures, brings this commitment to life and underscores the fact that we know this is a journey of continuous improvement and that we’ll always have more to do. Providing the structural framework for this work, Alexion’s CSR-STAR Platform sets forth the key principles of our approach: Serve Communities and Sustain Our Planet, Transform Patient Lives, Advance Our People and Our Company and Redefine What it Means to Live With a Rare Disease.

5G Supports the Frontline in Fighting COVID-19

Interested in staying up-to-date on COVID-19’s impact across sectors? Visit our Coronavirus Impact Tracker for daily updates pulled from earnings calls, press releases, 8ks, and more.

No, 5G is not tied to the spread of COVID-19, however it is critical in supporting the fight against the novel coronavirus.

Telecom infrastructure is not only enabling facetime calls, zoom meetings, and instagram scrolling, but also telehealth visits, pop-up hospitals, and testing centers. Now, national and local governments are seeing why 5G matters: time and speed. Every second saved seeing a patient, or delivering x-ray results, translates to increased capacity for healthcare systems. Will 5G’s new support role in the pandemic hasten it’s adoption or will it continue to be a pipe dream? See our takeaways from market chatter below:

 

Takeaways:
Continue reading “5G Supports the Frontline in Fighting COVID-19”