Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Earnings - Analysis & Highlights for Q4 2024

Overview
PositivesNegativesOutlook
  • The company generated strong cash flow from operations of approximately $4.4 billion in Q4.
  • The Growth Portfolio delivered double-digit revenue growth led by BREYANZI, CAMZYOS, REBLOZYL, and Opdualag.
  • The company expects to drive value for the company and ultimately for shareholders.
  • The company expects to become a leaner, more focused company, and has identified an additional $2 billion in savings.
  • Operating expenses increased by 8% due to R&D investments.
  • The company expects additional headwinds from higher rebates notably across the Immunology franchise.
  • The company expects quarterly revenue progression to be impacted by inventory destocking and additional gross-to-net pressures from Medicare Part D redesign.
  • The company expects Q1 sales to be the lowest quarter for ELIQUIS.
  • The company expects to see continued competitive intensity and competitive pressures for ABECMA.
  • The company expects an 18% to 20% decline in the legacy portfolio due to the stacking of LOEs and anticipated headwinds from foreign exchange of approximately $500 million.
  • The company expects to deliver non-GAAP earnings per share in the range of approximately $6.55 to $6.85.
  • The company expects total operating expenses to show a meaningful decline to approximately $16 billion, driven by the expanded cost savings program.
  • The company expects to maintain its tax rate of approximately 18%.

Q&A Highlights from Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Earnings Call Q4 2024

  • Analyst asked about the cost program and whether the company plans to pursue additional cost-cutting efforts.
    • The company's focus is on investing for growth, but they have identified opportunities to become a more agile and nimble company. They plan to capitalize on these opportunities, which explains the timing of their announcement. They are always focused on rightsizing the organization and ensuring the right level of spend given the business needs.

  • Analyst asked about the potential for additional investments beyond what has been announced and whether the failure of emraclidine has impacted the investment plan.
    • The company is focused on delivering COBENFY as quickly as possible to patients, but they believe that the competitive dynamics provide a more significant long-term opportunity for them. They are accelerating programs where possible and exploring additional indications for the drug. They see the unique efficacy advantages of COBENFY in the three domains of schizophrenia and believe that they have a clear path forward in the space.

  • Analyst asked about the company's perspective on the potential policy changes related to the IRA and the nomination of RFKJ.
    • The company has a long history of working across both sides of the aisle and looks forward to working with the new Congress and President Trump's administration, including nominees like RFK once they are confirmed. Their focus as a company is on policies that strengthen the ecosystem for innovation, address the needs of patients and employees, and ensure that the FDA has what it needs to fulfill its mission. They see an opportunity to address some of the challenges of the IRA and avoid some of the more damaging aspects of the law, including addressing the (00:29:51) and addressing the spillover impact.

  • Analyst asked about the biggest differences between Bristol-Myers Squibb's guidance and consensus estimates.
    • The company's guidance reflects the increased step-down on REVLIMID and the stacking of full-year impacts of products like POMALYST, SPRYCEL, and ABRAXANE. These are short-term impacts, and the company is focused on the long-term progression of its new product portfolio.

  • Analyst asked about the trough and how the company plans to change its timing, depth, and duration.
    • The company is focused on driving top-tier growth exiting this decade, and it plans to do so by increasing the velocity of growth, accelerating the pipeline, and using capital to accelerate growth. The company also plans to become more nimble to capitalize on opportunities quickly.

  • Analyst asked about the 1Q dynamics and if there are any other considerations to think about.
    • The step-down will be mainly driven by REVLIMID and POMALYST volumes, and the only other consideration is ELIQUIS, which is larger in the first half of the year than the second half. The team is out in the field educating healthcare practitioners on the benefits of SubQ versus IV, and the company believes physicians will convert at least 30% to 40% of the IV business ahead of its LOE in late 2028. The feedback from healthcare practitioners has been positive regarding the three- to five-minute infusion time and the reimbursement question.

  • Analyst asked about the access and coverage of OPDIVO Qvantig and any thoughts on the uptake for 2025.
    • The team is out in the field educating healthcare practitioners on the benefits of SubQ versus IV, and the company believes physicians will convert at least 30% to 40% of the IV business ahead of its LOE in late 2028. The company has seen positive feedback from healthcare practitioners regarding the three- to five-minute infusion time and the reimbursement question. The company is excited about the launch and what it means for patients, physicians, and the durability of its IO franchise.

  • Analyst asked about the decision to acquire Karuna Pharmaceuticals and how it will impact business development.
    • The company considered several factors when deciding to acquire Karuna Pharmaceuticals, including the science behind the company's drugs, the opportunity to strengthen therapeutic areas, and the potential for growth in the back part of the decade. The company was disciplined in its approach, considering multiple options and ensuring financial viability. The senior leadership team took ownership of the decision, and the company moved quickly to execute the acquisition.

  • Analyst asked about the probability of success for the adjunctive schizophrenia trial and the potential impact of the CAMZYOS label update on community access.
    • The company is confident in the overall safety profile of the adjunctive schizophrenia drug, despite the fact that many patients in the real world are receiving concomitant medications. The company is also continuing to collect blinded data from the trial and looking forward to the readout of the trial. The company is also working to decrease the burden on sites, patients, and treating physicians, and the CAMZYOS label update in Europe has already reduced the frequency of echo monitoring for patients taking the drug. The company expects this update to open up additional capacity at the centers of excellence, allowing physicians to treat more patients.

  • Analyst asked about the possibility of getting approval on just an MRD endpoint for Bristol-Myers Squibb's iberdomide trial.
    • David V. Elkins explained that the company is aiming for an incremental $2 billion in cost savings, with $1 billion dropping to the bottom line this year and another $1 billion achieved by 2027. The company is also working with the FDA to include MRD as a primary endpoint in the clinical trial and will engage with the regulators based on the magnitude and timing of the readout.

  • Analyst asked about the time course that the FDA wants for the durability of the MRD endpoint and why not add MRD endpoints to the mezigdomide trials.
    • Samit Hirawat explained that MRD endpoint is new for multiple myeloma and the company is continuing to evaluate potential to leverage an earlier MRD endpoint readout to accelerate the development of their multiple myeloma assets. However, the timing, population, and event accrual will determine whether the endpoint will be used for other trials.

  • Analyst asked about the possibility of adding MRD endpoints to the mezigdomide trials.
    • Adam Lenkowsky explained that the company is committed to optimizing the value of ABECMA and remains competitive in the space. The company is also excited about GPRC5D, which they believe will play a critically important role in the treatment of post-BCMA CAR T with a single infusion and an improved safety profile.

  • Analyst asked about the peak opportunity for CAMZYOS and the upcoming ODYSSEY data readout.
    • The company expects to have a PDUFA date in April of this year for the label change in EU and potentially a change in the US as well. They are focused on continuing to add new patients each week and expect growth from the expansion of prescribers and high persistency. The company is looking forward to seeing the topline data in Q2 and building upon the success of CAMZYOS with a strong first-mover advantage across both indications.

  • Analyst asked about the data submitted to the FDA for the less restrictive CAMZYOS REMS and whether it included anything additional versus what was submitted to EMA.
    • The company will not be able to give specific details at this time about the data submitted to the FDA, but they have submitted a strong data package from both clinical trials and real-world evidence. They continue to have a dialogue with regulatory agencies and are asking for relief for the patient perspective.

  • Analyst asked about the label change in Europe for CAMZYOS and the frequency of echo monitoring for patients taking the drug post week 12.
    • The label in Europe was updated to reduce the frequency of echo monitoring for patients taking CAMZYOS post week 12. Patients are now able to have echos once every six months instead of once a quarter.