Stellantis NV Earnings - Analysis & Highlights for Q4 2024

Overview
PositivesNegativesOutlook
  • Electrification is growing, and the company sees progress in terms of market share.
  • The company expects larger sequential margin improvement in H2 due to the growing product portfolio.
  • The company is in a healthy place at the group level and in each of the four major regions it operates in.
  • The company is launching a number of exciting new products, including the initial Smart Car and STLA Large products, and the Citroën C3, Dodge Charger, and the Jeep Wagoneer S.
  • The company is impressed by its partnership with Leapmotors and is confident about what it can do in China and outside of China with them.
  • Consolidated shipments of 5.4 million vehicles were down 750,000 units, or 12% due to the following factors.
  • Total inventories were reduced around 140,000 units over the last three months of the year, with all of that decline coming in company inventories, while dealer inventories rose a very nominal 11,000 units.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS of €2.48 declined 61%, with AOI down 64%, but the average share count 5% lower as a result of buyback activities.
  • The company had a €2.5 billion negative impact from FX.
  • The company expects larger sequential margin improvement in H2 due to the growing product portfolio.
  • The company expects significant positive FCF, excluding a change in working capital.
  • The company expects to run at low-single digit in North America in H1 and achieve op margins in the mid to high-single digit range in H2.

Q&A Highlights from Stellantis NV Earnings Call Q4 2024

  • Analyst asked about the company's global auto company strategy in a world that is increasingly geopolitically decoupled and where it may not make sense to be one of the largest car players.
    • The company believes that their regional scale in the largest markets they operate in is a strength, allowing them to be differentiated in terms of customer wants and regulations. They also benefit from being global, particularly in software and features, and that incumbent and insurgent companies, such as Toyota and Tesla, are gaining market share due to their global size and reach. The company is well-equipped for the world to come, with regional scale and global scale.

  • Analyst asked about the production ramp-up the company is planning for the year, and how set in stone it is for the second half, depending on market dynamics. They also asked about the company's willingness to do more discounts or build up more caution on ramping up production in the second half.
    • The company's production planning and car flow are regularly adjusted based on market dynamics, and they are looking to grow share and defend their share of voice with new products and marketing efforts. They believe that their competitive pricing position and new products will help them grow back some market share, but not as aggressively as some of the numbers quoted.

  • Analyst asked about the other key building blocks in the AOI bridge, specifically about pricing and costs.
    • Doug Ostermann, CFO of Stellantis, explained that the company expects to achieve low-single digit op margins in the first half of the year, with mid to high-single digit margins in the back half. He also mentioned that Stellantis has made significant progress in North America, which has led to a more competitive position in the market, and while they may not see significant adjustments during the first half, the year-over-year comparison will reflect the strong pricing they had in early 2024.

  • Analyst asked about the capacity issue and how the company plans to address it.
    • John Jacob Philip Elkann, Chairman of Stellantis, responded by stating that the company can resolve the issue by selling more cars.

  • Analyst asked about the retail market share in Europe and the US being "ugly" and how long it will take for the company to see good news on the retail share.
    • Philippe, that's a great question. We're seeing positive signs in the retail market share, and we're confident that we'll see continued improvement in the coming months. We're focused on repositioning our products and repricing incentives to attract more customers, and we're seeing positive results already. We're committed to building confidence in the market, and we believe that our efforts will pay off in the near future.