ArcelorMittal SA Earnings - Q3 2025 Analysis & Highlights

Key Takeaways

ArcelorMittal SA's Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted structural improvements leading to higher margins, healthy cash flow generation, and a positive business outlook, particularly with proposed trade tools in Europe. The call also covered safety improvements, strategic project progress, and capital return policies.

Key Financial Results

  • Q3 2025 EBITDA per tonne was $111, which is 25% above the historical average margin.
  • Nine months free cash flow was approximately $0.5 billion positive.
  • The company remains on track to capture $0.7 billion structural EBITDA improvement this year, with an expected medium-term impact of $2.1 billion unchanged.
  • Over the past five years, the company has grown its dividend at a compound rate of 16%, and repurchased 38% of its equity.

    • Business Segment Results

  • North America: Strong performance driven by record shipments at Calvert, good cost management, and solid operations in Canada.
  • Mexico: Experienced losses, with a $90 million impact in Q3 and an expected $60-65 million cost in Q4, attributed to stoppages; these are not expected to recur in 2026.
  • Europe: Shipped around 30 million tonnes of finished steel. The company expects to be able to supply the market if imports decline.

    • Capital Allocation

  • The company will continue to implement its clearly-defined capital return policies.
  • 50% of the free cash after paying dividends will be distributed to shareholders.
  • CapEx is expected to remain in the range of $4.5 to $5 billion, including strategic, sustaining, and maintenance investments.

    • Industry Trends and Dynamics

  • The outlook for the business has clearly improved relative to three months ago.
  • Demand has been moving sideways in most core regions.
  • The company welcomes the new trade tool proposed by the European Commission, which will support a more sustainable European steel sector.

    • Macroeconomic Environment

  • Discussion around potential benefits from lower interest rates impacting the economy.
  • Mention of recovering PMIs in Europe.
  • The company is monitoring the impact of tariffs, particularly in the US, Canada, and Mexico.

    • Growth Opportunities and Strategies

  • Strategic projects, together with the impact from recently completed M&A, will support structurally high margins and returns on capital employed through the cycle.
  • ArcelorMittal is actively enabling the energy transition by supplying steel for new energy and mobility systems and infrastructure developments.
  • The company is investing in high-quality, high-margin electrical fields and building a competitive renewable energy portfolio.
  • The company remains on track to achieve the targeted 10 million tonnes of shipments in Liberia.

    • Financial Guidance and Outlook

  • The company expects that working capital investment will unwind as it normally does, supporting a positive outlook for free cash flow and lower net debt.
  • The company expects $800 million coming in 2026 from projects.
  • Pricing should be lower in Q4 than in Q3, offset by improvements in Mexican operations.
  • The company anticipates a seasonal improvement in European volumes in Q4.