Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV Earnings - Q4 2025 Analysis & Highlights
Anheuser-Busch InBev reported solid full-year 2025 financial performance with disciplined strategy execution, margin expansion, and strong free cash flow generation despite a dynamic consumer environment. The company demonstrated resilience across its diversified geographic footprint while advancing strategic priorities in premiumization, non-alcoholic beverages, Beyond Beer expansion, and digital marketplace scaling.
Key Financial Results
Revenue growth of 2% driven by a 4.4% increase in revenue per hectoliter, reflecting disciplined revenue management and premium brand pricing power.
EBITDA increased 4.9% with margin expansion of 101 basis points, as productivity initiatives more than offset transactional foreign exchange headwinds.
Underlying EPS of $3.73 per share, representing a 6% increase in dollars and 9.4% increase in constant currency compared to the prior year.
Dollar-based EPS has grown at a CAGR of 6.7% since 2021, with underlying profit growth of $350 million in 2025.
Free cash flow maintained at $11.3 billion, consistent with 2024 levels through EBITDA growth, margin expansion, and disciplined resource allocation.
Overall volumes for the year were below potential, though momentum accelerated through the fourth quarter with improved volume performance in December.
Business Segment Results
North America (US): Gained share in both beer and spirits in 2025, with Michelob Ultra and Busch Light as the top two volume share gainers in the industry. Beyond Beer portfolio revenue increased in the high-30s, led by Cutwater with triple-digit revenue growth.
Middle Americas (Mexico): Delivered mid-single-digit top- and bottom-line increases with above core beer portfolio leading growth.
Middle Americas (Colombia): Record high volumes and margin expansion drove double-digit EBITDA growth with revenue increasing across all price segments.
Middle Americas (Brazil): Momentum improved in the fourth quarter with market share gains and volumes returning to growth in December as weather normalized. Premium and super premium beer brands delivered high-teens volume growth and gained share to lead the premium segment.
Europe: Market share gains and premiumization partially offset a soft industry, with performance driven by megabrands and non-alcohol beer.
South Africa: Continued momentum with market share gains in beer and Beyond Beer, with mid-single-digit top- and bottom-line growth.
APAC (China): Revenue declined by low-teens with volumes underperforming a more stable industry as the company adjusted inventory levels and focus areas. Market share trend improved to flat versus last year in Q4, driven by improvements in Budweiser brand power and in-home channel performance.
Revenue increased in 65% of markets and EBITDA growth delivered in four of five operating regions.
Capital Allocation
Share buybacks of $2.7 billion in debt repurchased with a further $6 billion buyback program currently executing.
Total dividend increase of 15% year-over-year, including an interim dividend announced in October and a proposed final dividend of €1 per share.
Dividends raised every year since 2021 with ambition to continue progressive dividend growth over time.
Net CapEx expected between $3.5 billion and $4 billion for 2026 as the company continues to invest while optimizing resource allocation.
Leverage ratio reached 2.87 times despite a $2.8 billion foreign exchange headwind on net debt from a stronger euro.
Debt maturity profile improved with no bonds maturing in 2026, a weighted average maturity of 13 years, and no financial covenants.
Industry Trends and Dynamics
Beer category forecast to continue gaining share of alcohol beverage, having gained more than 200 basis points since 2021.
Beer expected to grow volumes globally and continue to gain share of alcohol beverage.
Premium beer forecast to grow volumes across all geographic clusters at more than double the rate of the overall category.
Non-alcohol beer portfolio delivered 34% revenue increase and estimated to gain share in 70% of the company's top 14 non-alcohol beer markets.
Beyond Beer category projected to grow volumes at double the rate of the overall beer category.
Approximately 70% of EBITDA generated in emerging and developing markets projected to account for more than 80% of beer category volume growth through 2029.
Competitive Landscape
Michelob Ultra and Busch Light were the top two volume share gainers in the US beer industry.
Cutwater was the number one share gaining brand in the total spirits industry in Q4.
Corona ranked as the Most Valuable Beer Brand in the world in 2025 and sells on average at a 20% premium to the nearest competitor.
Corona volumes doubled since 2018 with volume increases by double-digits in 30 markets in 2025.
Company is the leader in the premium beer segment globally with significant headroom for category premiumization.
Budweiser, Michelob Ultra and Bud Light named as 3 of the top 10 ads according to USA TODAY's Ad Meter, with Budweiser taking the top spot for the second year in a row.
Macroeconomic Environment
Near-term demand across many CPG categories impacted by constrained consumer environment and unseasonable weather.
Industry volumes below trend in 2025 in the US, though the company is encouraged by the start to 2026.
Consumers under stress in disposable income due to high inflation in Brazil.
Abnormal seasonal weather that was cold and rainy through a significant portion of the middle of the year in Brazil.
Transactional FX headwinds offset by productivity initiatives to drive EBITDA growth.
Stronger euro created a $2.8 billion FX headwind on net debt.
Growth Opportunities and Strategies
Megabrands led growth and increased revenue at a CAGR of 10% since 2021, now representing 57% of total revenues.
Non-alcohol beer portfolio accelerated with Corona Cero globally and Michelob Ultra Zero in the US driving growth.
Beyond Beer portfolio revenue increased 23% in 2025, with Cutwater growing revenue in triple-digits.
Flying Fish flavored beer expanding to Europe and the Americas after successful rollout in Africa.
Beyond Beer now accounts for 3% of total revenue with strong right to win in this segment.
Innovations across packaging, brands and liquids contributed 11% of total revenue.
BEES Marketplace GMV increased 61% to $3.5 billion, with the marketplace growing from standing start five years ago.
BEES captured $53 billion in gross merchandise values, a 12% increase versus prior year.
DTC digital platforms serving 12.3 million consumers, an 11% increase compared to 2024.
Investments of $7.4 billion in sales and marketing in 2025, averaging more than $7 billion per year since 2021.
Focus on rebuilding momentum in China through right focus, consistent execution, investment in right channels, and team urgency.
US market turnaround driven by portfolio rebalancing for growth, investing in right segmentation and brands, and consistency over long horizon.
Financial Guidance and Outlook
EBITDA expected to grow between 4% and 8% on an organic basis for 2026, in line with medium-term outlook.
Net CapEx expected between $3.5 billion and $4 billion for 2026.
Normalized effective tax rate expected between 26% and 28% for 2026.
Company entered 2026 with improving momentum across many key markets and well positioned to engage consumers and accelerate growth.
Volume trend improved in December with the company gaining or maintaining share in 80% of markets in Q4.
Encouraged by momentum exiting 2025 with early green shoots from cyclical standpoint and consistent application of strategy.
Beer industry volumes and revenues grew in January 2026.
Upcoming FIFA World Cup in North America with 104 games presents opportunity to activate category and engage consumers.