Dominion Energy Inc Earnings - Q4 2025 Analysis & Highlights

Dominion Energy reported strong 2025 financial performance with operating earnings above guidance, announced a significant 30% increase in its five-year capital plan to $65 billion driven by data center demand, reaffirmed long-term earnings growth guidance of 5-7% with bias toward the upper half starting in 2028, and provided detailed updates on the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project's progress toward first power delivery by end of March 2026.

Key Financial Results

  • Full-year 2025 operating earnings of $3.42 per share and operating earnings excluding RNG 45Z credits of $3.33 per share, both above the midpoint of guidance.
  • Full-year 2025 GAAP earnings of $3.45 per share, higher than operating EPS.
  • Moody's full-year CFO pre-working capital to debt estimated at nearly 100 basis points above downgrade threshold and the highest result reported since 2012.
  • Weather-normal sales in Dominion Energy Virginia LSE increased 5.4% in 2025.
  • All of the top 20 peak demand days in the Dominion Zone occurred in the last 14 months.

    • Business Segment Results

  • Dominion Energy Virginia and Dominion Energy South Carolina (DESC) continue to maintain competitive rates below national average, with DEV rates 4% below national average and DESC rates 12% below national average.
  • Millstone nuclear facility achieved a capacity factor of over 91% during 2025, providing over 90% of Connecticut's carbon-free electricity.
  • 55% of Millstone's output is under a fixed price contract through late 2029.

    • Capital Allocation

  • Five-year total capital estimate increased from $50 billion to approximately $65 billion, representing a 30% increase.
  • Nearly 90% of the capital increase is happening at Dominion Energy Virginia.
  • Nearly two-thirds of updated capital spend will be eligible for recovery under rider mechanisms subject to regulatory approval.
  • Compounded annual growth rate of investment base updated to approximately 10%.
  • Nearly 60% of five-year investing cash flows and projected dividends will be satisfied by internally generated operating cash flows.
  • About 10% will come from net hybrid issuance.
  • About 10% will come from common equity issued via standing DRIP and ATM programs.
  • Final roughly 20% will come from long- and short-term debt.
  • Dividend per share growth rate will be revisited when the company achieves a peer-aligned payout ratio.

    • Industry Trends and Dynamics

  • Data center pipeline now includes over 48 gigawatts in various stages of contracting as of December 2025, compared to around 47 gigawatts as of September, an increase of approximately 1.4 gigawatts or 3%.
  • Forecasted data center demand through 2045 is more than covered by existing signed ESAs and CLOAs, meaning the company does not forecast demand based on SELOAs.
  • Data center load has grown at a 20% CAGR since 2016 in Virginia.
  • Residential rates in Virginia have averaged 9% below the national average even as data center load has grown significantly.
  • Expected typical residential rates to increase by a compound annual growth rate of around 2.6% at DEV and 2.8% at DESC.
  • DEV and DESC's average residential electric customer bills as a percentage of median household income have improved by 7% and 29% more than the National Electric Utility average, respectively, since 2014.

    • Competitive Landscape

  • Dominion Energy's economic development team has been recognized as a top utility for economic development for the ninth consecutive year.
  • The company has a proven track record of being one of the most efficient companies in the industry based on most recent data filed with FERC.
  • Data center demand is characterized as differentiated, high-quality, and low-risk based on over a decade of meter-level historical data and long-term relationships with major technology companies.

    • Macroeconomic Environment

  • Company is reviewing Friday Supreme Court tariff ruling and will update the CVOW budget in the future as appropriate.
  • Tariff exposure is being tracked across discrete tariff categories with impact of country-specific tariffs shown through March 2026 and impact of steel tariffs through completion of project construction in early 2027.
  • Current interest rate outlook reflects increased parent-level interest-related expense supporting the higher capital plan.

    • Growth Opportunities and Strategies

  • Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project is over 70% complete and on track for delivery of first power to the grid by end of March.
  • Project budget stands at $11.5 billion, including unused contingency of $155 million.
  • Around 70% of towers and cells and 30% of blades have been fabricated for wind turbine generators.
  • Successful completion of the first turbine in January marked a major milestone demonstrating ability to safely complete major project elements.
  • Current project budget includes turbine installation schedule contingency for weather delays through July 2027, with estimate that each additional quarter to complete turbine installation would add between $150 million and $200 million to project cost.
  • PJM awarded Dominion Energy Virginia a portfolio of transmission projects totaling over $5 billion, with various in-service dates through 2032, representing the largest proposed investment by Dominion Energy Virginia since PJM began its Open Window process.
  • Virginia SCC approved Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity and rider for the Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center, an approximately 1-gigawatt gas-fired electric generating facility expected to cost approximately $1.5 billion and be placed in service in 2029.
  • Generation portfolio includes two CTs and three CCGTs with projected in-service dates of 2032 through 2034.
  • Company continues to evaluate supporting incremental data center activity at Millstone nuclear facility in collaboration with Connecticut stakeholders.
  • Connecticut Department of Energy & Environmental Protection issued a zero carbon energy request for proposals for which Millstone is eligible, with bids due in March.
  • Projects supported in the last year will create more than 3,600 jobs and attract $7.4 billion in new capital investment.

    • Financial Guidance and Outlook

  • 2026 operating earnings per share guidance (excluding RNG 45Z credit income) of between $3.40 and $3.60 per share with a midpoint of $3.50.
  • Midpoint represents a 6.1% increase relative to comparable 2025 guidance midpoint of $3.30.
  • Total operating earnings guidance at midpoint for 2026 is $3.57 per share.
  • Long-term operating earnings per share guidance reaffirmed at 5% to 7% annually, off of the original 2025 guidance midpoint of $3.30 per share.
  • Company expects to achieve the upper half of the 5% to 7% growth rate range starting in 2028.
  • Approximately 250 basis points of the difference between rate base and long-term earnings growth guidance is caused by equity dilution.
  • Company expects to issue, on average, roughly 2.5% of market cap annually to fund growth.
  • Millstone double outage year normally reduces operating EPS by between $0.08 and $0.10.
  • RNG 45Z credit income guidance reflects updated credit scoring and lower production assumptions, with expectations of $0.05 to $0.09 range for 2026 and beyond.
  • Credit and dividend guidance for 2026 are consistent with previous long-term guidance.
  • South Carolina DESC filed an electric rate case application with the Public Service Commission of South Carolina on January 2, with expected decision in June and rates effective in July.

    • Safety and Operational Performance

  • OSHA recordable rate of 0.26 in 2025 was a record for the company, continuing positive trend from last three years.
  • Company broke a record with lowest loss day restricted duty rate, a safety metric reflecting more serious injuries.