BNP Paribas Earnings - Q3 2025 Analysis & Highlights
Key Takeaways
BNP Paribas' Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted solid financial results, strategic integration of AXA IM, and confidence in achieving the 2025 net profit target. Key discussion points included revenue growth, cost control, capital strength, and future growth strategies across various business segments.
Key Financial Results
Q3 2025 net profit was up 6.1%, confirming the target of €12.2 billion net profit for 2025.
Revenues increased by 5.3% this quarter.
The CET1 ratio is at 12.5%.
Operating divisions, excluding AXA IM, generated a 2-point jaws effect.
Cost of risk remains within guidance at 39 bps.
Business Segment Results
CIB revenues posted a record year with 4.5% growth, or 7.7% at constant exchange rates, driven by Global Markets and Security Services.
CPBS revenues increased by 3.1%, driven by Eurozone Commercial banks with net interest income up 4.5%.
Personal Finance is delivering on its strategic plan, with Arval's organic growth at 9.3%.
IPS recorded 2.9% organic revenue growth, with robust performance in Wealth Management, Insurance, and Asset Management.
Global Banking was resilient despite a challenging context.
Capital Allocation
The company has fully absorbed the impact of the AXA IM acquisition of 35 bps.
A new cycle is starting where risk-weighted growth will be driven by organic momentum, estimated at less than 2% per year.
The company expects to generate €550 million of revenues and cost synergies by 2029 from the AXA IM acquisition.
Industry Trends and Dynamics
Eurozone commercial banks are starting to benefit from a supportive interest rate environment.
Strong organic growth at Arval, at 9.3% in Q3 2025, will no longer suffer from the base effect linked to used car prices.
Competitive Landscape
BNP Paribas aims to become a leading player in European Asset Management, leveraging the AXA IM acquisition.
The company is creating a European leader in Asset Management at the core of its integrated model.
Macroeconomic Environment
The third quarter performance was impacted by a high FX impact.
The revenues were impacted by the impact of DVA generating a negative €110 million swing.
Growth Opportunities and Strategies
The company intends to improve the RoNE of CPBB in Belgium from 13% in 2024 to 20% in 2028 and 23% in 2030.
BNP Paribas Bank Polska will host a Capital Market Day on December 11.
The company expects IPS to reach 20% of the group's pre-tax profit in the coming years.
The AXA IM acquisition will add more than 50 basis points to the group return on tangible equity as early as 2028.
The company is developing its European Wealth Management platform, and IPS will benefit from external and organic growth at BNP Paribas Cardif, as well as from its strategic partnerships.
The company plans to maximize the potential of its two investment platforms: alternative and liquid assets.
The company aims to expand distribution partnerships through innovative digital solutions.
Financial Guidance and Outlook
The company reaffirms its 2026 trajectory, leading to an acceleration in shareholders' return.
The company expects its return on the €2.8 billion of invested capital to reach 18% in 2028 and 20% in 2029 post-tax.
The company aims to raise group return on tangible equity to 13% as early as 2028 with a core equity Tier 1 of 12.5% post-FRTB in 2027.
The company expects to generate €550 million of revenues and cost synergies by 2029 thanks to AXA IM.
The company expects an improvement of more than 40 basis points in return on tangible equity from the AXA IM acquisition at the group level.
The company expects more than €600 million of additional net earnings.
The company maintains its guidance for the full year cost of risk.
