Stellantis N.V. Earnings - Q4 2025 Analysis & Highlights
Stellantis NV reported a decisive business reset in 2025 focused on returning to profitable growth through customer-centric strategies, with H2 2025 showing encouraging momentum in top-line growth, improved inventory management, and quality initiatives, while 2026 is positioned as an execution year with progressive performance improvements expected across all business KPIs.
Key Financial Results
Consolidated shipments of 5.5 million units were up 1% year-over-year, with increases in South America, North America, and Middle East & Africa.
Net revenues of €153 billion were 2% lower year-over-year for the full year, but showed an encouraging plus 10% growth in H2 2025.
AOI margin was negative at 0.5% for the full year, reflecting the early stage of recovery and substantial net tariff expenses.
Net loss of €22 billion primarily reflects the strategic shift to adjust to customer preference and response to changes in the US regulatory framework, with most of the impact being noncash.
Industrial free cash flow showed outflows of €4.5 billion for the full year, but H2 industrial free cash flow of negative €1.5 billion represented a 50% sequential improvement compared to H1 2025 and 73% year-over-year improvement.
Industrial liquidity finished at approximately €46 billion, representing 30% of revenues, at the upper end of the company's target range.
US days of supply ended the year at 69 days, described as a very healthy number.
Order portfolio in North America and Europe combined is up 46%, with North America up 150% and Europe up 18%.
Business Segment Results
North America posted the strongest contribution with a 39% increase in shipments and a 31% increase in revenues in H2 2025, reflecting benefits of normalized inventory dynamics and higher sales.
North America H2 AOI improvement versus prior year was driven by higher volumes and pricing, partially offset by higher industrial costs, mainly tariffs.
Enlarged Europe H2 AOI decrease versus prior year was driven by higher LEV mix and net pricing decline due to the strong competitive environment.
South America H2 AOI decline versus prior year was due to some increase in costs, with FX headwinds impacting the cost structure in Brazil.
Middle East & Africa shipments had solid growth driven by increased Stellantis production in Algeria and a strong Turkish market, but margins declined primarily due to the very competitive market environment in Turkey.
North America net pricing was up 2% year-over-year in H2 2025.
H2 net price improvement is driven by increases in North America and Middle East & Africa, partially offset by negative net pricing in Europe.
FX headwinds were nearly €1 billion negative to AOI, driven overwhelmingly by Turkish lira devaluation.
Capital Allocation
Capital expenditures decreased by approximately €3 billion in 2025 compared to prior year.
Investments are expected to be flattish year-over-year in 2026, including all communicated commitments such as the $13 billion investment over four years in the US.
CapEx is expected to increase in coming years, with more details to be provided at the Investor Day.
$13 billion investment over four years in the US is a strategic long-term business decision designed to drive big growth, including introduction of five new vehicles and completion of renewal of current lineup with 19 additional product actions.
Working capital would be a tailwind in 2026, primarily due to volume growth forecasted, excluding €2 billion of payments related to restructuring charges.
Industry Trends and Dynamics
H2 2025 showed return to top line growth as the company executed a deep reset of its business to put the customer back at the center.
Smart Car products showed strong demand with 325,000 orders collected in 2025, and an order book up 80% year-over-year.
Leapmotor partnership delivered around 50,000 units shipped in 2025 with acceleration across multiple dimensions.
Regulatory dynamics present real headwinds for the industry and customers, particularly in the light commercial vehicle business, where the trajectory of electrification demanded by regulators is nowhere near real market demand.
Chinese competition is increasing in Middle East, Africa, and South America regions.
Competitive Landscape
Europe market share is rebounding thanks to strong product lineup, with the company maintaining number two overall share, number one in B-segment, and number one in light commercial vehicle.
South America continues to maintain its number one share position.
Market share improvements were achieved in January 2026, with US market share up year-over-year and European share showing sequential increase compared to H2 2025.
North America market share improved by 20 basis points in H2 2025.
Middle East & Africa improved market share with shipments up 9%.
Strong competitors including Toyota, Hyundai, and GM are present in white space segments the company is targeting.
Competitive environment remains strong in Europe with continued price pressure expected.
Macroeconomic Environment
Tariff expenses were substantial in 2025, with tariffs expected to remain a headwind in 2026.
FX headwinds were even stronger in the second half, especially due to Turkish lira devaluation.
Brazilian real impact on industrial performance was driven by FX headwinds affecting the cost structure in Brazil.
Argentinian peso devaluation resulted in pricing not fully recovering the strong devaluation in H2 2025.
North America market is expected to be slightly down, about 2% year-over-year in terms of total market, while Europe is expected to be about flat.
Tariff impact is expected to continue to have an effect on pricing, with the market not yet priced for tariffs.
Growth Opportunities and Strategies
10 all-new products were launched in 2025, including the return of the Jeep Cherokee in the midsize SUV segment, the largest segment in the world.
Deep reset of quality organization involved hiring over 2,000 new engineers to drive improvement.
Quality improvements are showing strong results with 1 Month in Service over 50% improved in North America, over 30% improved in Europe, and 20% improved in South America since 2025.
HEMI V8 engine production will increase by 100,000 units in 2026.
Dodge Charger SIXPACK variants production started this week, with three new variants representing 90% of expected volumes.
Jeep Twelve 4 Twelve program represents reinvigoration of Jeep Wrangler franchise with monthly drops of special editions.
Ram TRX with 777 horsepower from supercharger HEMI V8 and Power Wagon were recently announced.
Leapmotor expansion includes commercial expansion in Europe with local production in Spain plant planned to start in H2 2026, followed by South America with production in Pernambuco plant.
Smart Car platform vehicles including Citroën C3, Citroën C3 Aircross, Fiat Grande Panda, and Opel Frontera are already in the market.
Ram Dakota launched in Argentina in December and will launch in Brazil in March, entering the attractive mid-size truck market.
Mid-size SUV offensive in the US includes the all-new 2026 Jeep Cherokee.
C-SUV offensive in Europe is strengthened by the all-new Jeep Compass and Citroën C5 Aircross.
Fiat 500 Hybrid introduction in Europe will provide mix gains.
Freedom of choice in powertrains will be delivered to customers with innovative new ICE, BEV, hybrids, and range-extended products.
Organizational reset empowered regional teams, reset stakeholder relationships, reset product plan and EV supply chain to reflect real-world customer demand, and reset manufacturing and quality processes.
Investor Day on May 21 will communicate in detail the new strategic plan.
Financial Guidance and Outlook
2026 financial guidance is confirmed as previously disclosed on February 6.
Mid-single-digit revenue growth is expected for 2026.
Progressive performance improvements are expected on all business KPIs in 2026.
Industrial free cash flow is expected to turn positive in 2027.
North America is expected to be the largest contributor to profitable growth for Stellantis in 2026.
Both North America and Europe are expected to be in positive AOI territory in 2026.
Restructuring expense would be well below €3 billion for 2026.
Financial services contribution for 2026 is expected to be similar to what was done net of dividends in 2025 for SFS overall.
Volume growth is expected to be driven by new products launched in late-2025 and early-2026.
Pricing environment is expected to be stable to slightly positive in the US as tariff impact continues, while Europe is expected to see continued strong competitive environment with price pressure.
Globally for Stellantis, price is expected to be basically flat with some positives in North America offsetting price pressure in Europe.
Quarterly earnings results will be reported on a quarterly basis starting in 2026, a change from previous reporting.
Quality and Operational Execution
Quality organization leadership was placed in the SLT team at the top tier of the organization.
Quality improvements are showing strong momentum with daily execution expected to drive even more positive results.
Operational efficiencies are expected to improve in 2026 due to non-repeat of specific items from 2025 and a more stable operational environment.
Mix improvement is expected in 2026 driven by light-duty and heavy-duty additional production due to high demand for HEMI V8 engine, and less PHEV production.
