Exxon Mobil Corp Earnings - Q4 2025 Analysis & Highlights
Exxon Mobil Corp.'s Q4 2025 earnings call highlighted significant progress in its transformation strategy, focusing on higher returns, lower costs, and technology-led operations. The company discussed strong financial performance, record production in the Permian and Guyana, and advancements in various technologies including Proxxima systems and carbon capture. Management also addressed capital allocation priorities, the competitive landscape, and future growth opportunities, particularly in LNG and potential re-entry into resource-rich regions.
Key Financial Results
ExxonMobil's fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results reaffirm that its transformation is driving improved earnings power across a broad range of metrics.
Over the past five years, annualized shareholder return of 29% has led the industry.
$150 billion of distributions to shareholders were made during that period.
Earnings, cash flow, and return on capital employed remain among the strongest in the sector.
Upstream earnings per barrel and structurally higher returns were noted.
Business Segment Results
Upstream
Upstream production averaged 4.7 million oil equivalent barrels per day.
Unit earnings were more than double those in 2019 on a constant price basis.
Production from advantaged assets including the Permian, Guyana, and LNG continues to grow.
These assets have lower cost of supply, lower emissions intensity, and higher returns.
They are expected to make up roughly 65% of total production by 2030.
In Guyana, the Yellowtail project came online ahead of schedule, raising gross production in the fourth quarter to roughly 875,000 barrels per day.
The first four FPSOs in Guyana are producing 100,000 barrels a day above the investment basis.
The Permian delivered a new production record in the fourth quarter, 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels per day.
This drove the highest annual company production in over 40 years at 4.7 million oil equivalent barrels per day.
Product Solutions
The Product Solutions portfolio has been strengthened with advantaged project start-ups and high-value product growth.
These projects are expected to drive meaningful earnings growth through 2030, with 60% coming from assets already online.
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
The carbon capture network continues to advance.
Progress was made on the Rose permit.
The first third-party CCS project came online, capable of storing up to 2 million tons per year.
The seventh CCS contract was secured.
These projects represent approximately 9 million tons per year of sequestered CO2.
Chemical Segment
There is robust strong demand across the world for chemical products.
The challenge in the chemical segment is from the supply side of the equation, with a lot of capacity suppressing margins despite record demand.
Capital Allocation
$150 billion was distributed to shareholders over the past five years.
$20 billion in share repurchases were completed during the year, retiring shares equivalent to one-third of those issued during the Pioneer transaction.
The company is maintaining a measured pace of share repurchases subject to reasonable market conditions.
Flexibility to invest through the cycle is being preserved.
Industry Trends and Dynamics
The oil and gas industry is seeing a robust asset market for private and other assets.
There is a growing desire for low-carbon data centers.
The only viable option at scale for decarbonizing data centers in the near to medium term is gas-fired power generation with carbon capture.
Competitive Landscape
ExxonMobil's captured savings are greater than all other IOC savings combined over the same period.
The company's industry-leading balance sheet, structurally lower breakevens, and level of short-cycle investments provide unmatched flexibility through the cycle.
The global projects organization executes about 3 times as many mega projects as the nearest competitor.
These projects are executed at up to 20% lower cost and 20% faster delivery schedules than the industry average.
ExxonMobil has the only scale end-to-end carbon capture and sequestration system and integrated capabilities to follow the molecule from capture to subsurface.
Growth Opportunities and Strategies
ExxonMobil set out to transform the company in 2018 to fully leverage its unique competitive advantages.
The company has built a higher return, lower cost, technology-led company that delivers superior results across market cycles.
10 key 2025 projects were successfully delivered, strengthening the portfolio for long-term profitable growth.
The company continues to high-grade the portfolio by increasing investments in an advantaged portfolio, divesting non-strategic assets, and significantly lowering costs.
Permian production is expected to exceed 2.5 million oil equivalent barrels a day beyond 2030.
Proxxima systems capacity has more than tripled, with growing opportunities across rebar, coatings, automotive, and oil and gas applications.
Proxxima-based rebar delivers a 40% improvement in installation efficiency versus steel, and offers superior strength, lightness, and corrosion resistance.
The advanced battery anode graphite program is showing exceptional performance, delivering 30% faster charging, up to 3% higher available capacity, and up to 4 times the battery life.
The Resid Upgrade project in Singapore demonstrated full capacity performance, validating proprietary catalyst technology to convert low-value fuel oil into higher-value lubricants and diesel.
The company is exploring opportunities in resource-rich regions like Libya, Iraq, and Venezuela, where it can bring its differentiated capabilities to bear.
Mozambique and Papua New Guinea LNG projects are being progressed due to their cost competitiveness and advantaged position in the market.
The company is implementing a new enterprise-wide process and data platform to change how it operates, with redesigned end-to-end processes and connected data.
This platform will enable faster learning and action, better leverage scale, accelerate AI adoption, and integrate new solutions.
Financial Guidance and Outlook
ExxonMobil expects to reach its 2030 methane intensity reductions by the end of 2026.
Advantaged assets are expected to make up roughly 65% of total production by 2030.
Product Solutions projects are expected to drive meaningful earnings growth through 2030.
Permian production is expected to exceed 2.5 million oil equivalent barrels a day beyond 2030.
First LNG production from Golden Pass is expected in very early March.
An FID for Mozambique is expected in the back half of 2026.
The company expects to improve upon its 2030 plans as it learns more and matures its new organizations.
