TC Energy Corporation Earnings - Q3 2026 Analysis & Highlights
TC Energy reported Q3 2026 EBITDA growth and higher earnings, raised its 2026 and 2027 outlook, and extended its 5%–7% annual EBITDA growth target through 2031, supported by expanding gas and power opportunities.
Key financial results
Q3 comparable EBITDA exceeded CAD 3 billion, up 13% year over year, and comparable EPS was CAD 0.94, up 22%.
Year-to-date comparable EBITDA reached CAD 9 billion, up 13% from the first nine months of 2025.
All four business segments reported higher year-over-year results.
Business segment results
Natural Gas Pipelines: The businesses achieved record EBITDA and set 10 new flow records in 2026 through the period, while maintaining safe and reliable operations.
U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines: Comparable quarterly EBITDA increased 17% year over year, reflecting assets placed into service, commercial settlements, and innovative contract sales.
Power and Energy Solutions: EBITDA increased 35%, with Bruce Power recording 97% availability and a full quarter of contributions from Unit 3 after its early MCR completion.
Canada and Mexico: Management cited strong discretionary revenue under the Mainline settlement, U.S. contract and efficiency gains, and stable contracted earnings and strong availability in Mexico.
Bruce Power: Unit 4’s calandria tube installation was completed 25 days faster than on Unit 3, and the company expected Unit 4 back online by the end of 2027, nearly four months ahead of the IESO plan.
Capital allocation
TC Energy sanctioned CAD 6 billion of growth projects year to date, reaching the low end of its annual CAD 6 billion–CAD 8 billion expectation; it targeted a further CAD 8 billion of project announcements in 2027.
The company’s sanctioned and pending-approval project spend totaled CAD 30 billion through 2031, while the origination opportunity set exceeded CAD 40 billion.
Management indicated annual net capital spending of approximately CAD 8 billion–CAD 10 billion from 2029 through 2031 to support the EBITDA midpoint; a higher conversion of opportunities could support more than CAD 9 billion annually.
The company expects to maintain leverage at or below 4.75 times debt to EBITDA; leverage was expected to exit 2026 at 4.55–4.6 times.
Management described the five-year plan as internally funded, with no equity issuance, M&A, or capital rotation required to achieve it as laid out; it would continue to assess high-value asset-rotation opportunities.
Bruce Power is expected to unlock CAD 2 billion–CAD 3 billion of annual investment capacity in the early 2030s; management described this as gross capacity to support growth in the gas and power businesses.
The common-share dividend is expected to grow 3%–5% annually.
The call did not provide a share-repurchase or debt-repayment plan.
Industry trends and dynamics
TC Energy estimated 51 Bcf per day of North American demand growth through 2035, with U.S. LNG, local distribution company reliability, and supply access among the established drivers; power demand and Canadian LNG were adding to the opportunity.
North American gas-fired generation was forecast to grow 83% from 2015 to 2035; about 70% of forecast gas-power demand growth over the next decade was expected in the U.S. Heartland, Alberta, and Mexico combined.
Canadian electricity demand was expected to double through 2050, with growth spanning data centers, electrification, transportation, industrial, and residential loads.
Management cited growing gas demand in the Midwest, Ohio, and Mid-Atlantic, including forecasts for Midwest demand growth of more than 20% and Ohio demand growth of up to 40% by 2035.
Management said peak demand can nearly double average Midwest demand and that Chicago cash prices had exceeded CAD 10 per MMBtu in five of the previous six winters, increasing the value of firm capacity.
TC Energy said it had placed about CAD 17 billion of projects into service from 2022 to 2026 to support LNG growth, and continued to advance LNG-related projects and system optimization.
Competitive landscape
TC Energy described its continental footprint as more than 94,000 kilometers of pipeline infrastructure carrying over 30% of the natural gas consumed in North America, complemented by more than 4,600 megawatts of power generation.
Management emphasized its ability to connect multiple supply basins to demand markets, its integrated storage and pipeline network, and its established presence across Canada, the U.S., and Mexico as competitive advantages.
Columbia Gas transports roughly 20% of Appalachian production, and management said its network can move that supply to more than 10 states and beyond.
Crossroads and American Midwest were presented as extensions of TC Energy’s network that connect Appalachian supply with Midwest markets and offer customers more supply options.
Management said 98% of comparable EBITDA came from rate-regulated or long-term take-or-pay arrangements, with investment-grade customers in every jurisdiction.
Macroeconomic environment
Management cited policy alignment across its three jurisdictions in support of energy projects and reliable, affordable power, and said proposed Canadian Bill C-39 permitting reform could reduce project timelines by one to two years.
TC Energy said U.S. state and utility policies increasingly established criteria for data centers, including “bring your own power,” which management said was encouraging longer-term contracts and bringing market risk profiles closer to the company’s preferences.
Management said it evaluates permitting risk early and had focused on jurisdictions it considered constructive for projects, while avoiding some markets where conditions were more variable.
The call did not identify inflation, tariffs, or recession as specific topics affecting its outlook.
Growth opportunities and strategies
TC Energy’s growth strategy centers on in-corridor, repeatable natural gas projects and expanding power opportunities that leverage its existing infrastructure and customer relationships.
The CAD 1.8 billion Crossroads project is designed to add 1.4 Bcf per day of capacity, with potential to increase capacity to more than 2 Bcf per day through capital-efficient measures.
The American Midwest project is expected to add up to 1 Bcf per day of East-to-West capacity on Northern Border; its estimated cost is USD 400 million, with TC Energy’s proportionate equity contribution of about USD 100 million.
Coastal GasLink Phase 2 is estimated to cost CAD 4.9 billion and nearly double capacity supplying LNG Canada to approximately 4.5 Bcf per day; TC Energy’s committed equity contribution is up to CAD 250 million.
The power opportunity portfolio exceeded CAD 15 billion and represented almost 4 gigawatts of capacity; more than 80% of those projects were expected to begin contributing EBITDA within the outlook period to 2031.
Management said the power projects may include combined-cycle, simple-cycle, or reciprocating technologies, and may be behind-the-meter or grid-connected, depending on customer needs.
Bruce Power’s Project 2030 is intended to increase output to approximately 7,000 megawatts, while Bruce C offers potential for up to 4,800 megawatts of new nuclear capacity.
AI-enabled pipeline capacity management generated approximately CAD 65 million of incremental EBITDA year to date; the company was on track for its CAD 100 million 2026 run-rate goal and targeted an additional CAD 100 million in 2027.
TC Energy said approximately 80% of the natural gas capital sanctioned that year had been upsized during development, and projects in development were tracking approximately 5% under budget, with over 95% on or ahead of schedule.
Financial Guidance and Outlook
TC Energy raised its 2026 comparable EBITDA outlook to CAD 11.8 billion–CAD 12.0 billion and projected CAD 12.3 billion–CAD 12.5 billion for 2027.
The company extended its outlook through 2031 and expects comparable EBITDA to grow 5%–7% annually over the five-year period.
Management said the low end of the growth range is supported by sanctioned and pending-approval projects and base-business optimization; reaching the upper end depends on converting additional projects in origination into sanctioned capital.
The plan assumes approximately 15% conversion of the more than CAD 40 billion origination pipeline to support the EBITDA midpoint; a higher conversion rate could support more than CAD 9 billion in annual net capital investment.
The company reiterated its 4.75-times debt-to-EBITDA target and expected annual dividend growth of 3%–5%.
