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COVID-19's Impact On Travel Creates Widespread Uncertainty

AlphaSense Staff

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As Coronavirus continues to spread across the world, companies across every industry are tracking how the virus is impacting their bottom line. While airlines are seeing immediate short-term impact, other major players across hotels, travel, retail brands and other sub-sectors are uncertain of long-term impact.

Who is talking about how travel is impacting their businesses? Learn which companies are communicating on COVID-19’s travel impacts and how they expect the virus to affect financial results.


  • Airlines, travel companies, industrial suppliers, and insurance providers are among those adding COVID-19 as a threat on their 10Ks. Many are positioning Coronavirus similarly to that of natural disasters, extreme weather and environmental catastrophes. 
  • While a few companies are stating negative material impact to their 2020 financial results, most are citing uncertainty on the long-term impacts of the virus on revenue, unwilling to provide clear guidance.
  • As companies begin to enforce travel and work from home policies for their employees, the impact could be wider-spread, in particular across industries where travel or in-person work is critical to revenue.

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Here are the highlights:

[Note: We are updating this post and our compilation post to reflect the most recent commentary. Last updated 3/20]


INTERCONTINENTAL HOTEL GROUP (8k - 3/20)                                                      

Keith Barr, Chief Executive Officer, IHG, said: "At this unprecedented time, our top priority remains the health and wellbeing of our guests, colleagues and partners, and ensuring that in light of such a significant impact on the global economy and, in particular, on the travel industry, we take the right steps to protect the long-term health of our business.

Demand for hotels is currently at the lowest levels we've ever seen. IHG has a robust business model and the measures we are announcing today to reduce costs and preserve cash give us the capacity to manage the business through this unique environment and to support our owners during this incredibly difficult time.

These were not easy choices and we are mindful of the impact these decisions will have on our colleagues and shareholders. However, we believe that these are essential to ensuring that we come out of this as strong as we possibly can and ready to capitalise on what remains an industry with excellent long-term growth potential."


DELTA (8k - 3/20)

It has been an extraordinary few weeks, to say the least, for our business, our nation and our world. Just over a month ago we were celebrating a record Profit-Sharing Day; today we face the greatest economic challenge in our history as the world grapples with the growing COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic.

I want to thank the more than 13,000 people who have stepped up to take voluntary unpaid leaves – this is the most important thing anyone can do right now to support Delta. While I’m grateful to the thousands that have volunteered, we could use more, so please seriously consider whether this is the right short-term decision for you and your family.

Earlier this week I outlined the serious threat to our business and the difficult actions we’re taking over the next few months to protect our company. Our revenue outlook continues to deteriorate in the short term with the decline in travel demand. We’re now projecting our June quarter revenues will be down by $10 billion compared to a year ago – an 80 percent reduction. It’s also clear, given the underlying damage the virus has created to the overall economy, that demand recovery will take an extended period once the virus is contained.

In light of the unprecedented challenges facing us, we have entered into a $2.6 billion secured credit facility and are drawing down $3 billion under our existing revolving credit facilities. This will help fortify our cash position in the coming weeks and months. To put this in context, despite all the self-help measures we are taking, we are currently burning roughly $50 million in cash each day.

We also continue working with the President and Congress on disaster relief assistance, which is vital to protect our industry’s critical role in our nation’s economy. Amid those discussions, in recent days some critics have argued that the airlines have not been good stewards of our money during our profitable years. At Delta, nothing could be further from the truth. Our philosophy has always been a simple one: We put 50 percent of our operating cash flow back into our business by investing in our people and our customers, use 30 percent to pay down debt, and return 20 percent to our owners.

In fact, over the past five years Delta has invested over $20 billion in new aircraft, airport enhancements, technology and customer service improvements; and invested $19 billion in our people via profit-sharing and pension contributions and payments. In addition, we increased base pay by 30 percent during that period and regained the confidence of the financial markets by earning back our investment-grade credit rating. When the extent of the COVID-19 crisis became clear, we immediately suspended our share repurchases, and our Board of Directors has voted to suspend future dividend payments.


BOEING (8k - 3/19)

As we encounter the Covid-19 crisis, Boeing, along with many other companies, face another major set of challenges. I want to be part of helping the company as it pushes through it. However, the board and executive team are going in a direction I cannot support.

While I know cash is tight, that is equally true for numerous other industries and for millions of small businesses. I cannot support a move to lean on the federal government for a stimulus or bailout that prioritizes our company over others and relies on taxpayers to guarantee our financial position. I have long held strong convictions that this is not the role of government.

I strongly believe that when one is part of a team, and one cannot in good faith support the direction of the team, then the proper thing to do is to resign. As such, I hereby resign my position from the Boeing Board.

I hope you all know that I will continue to be a strong supporter of Boeing and its workforce. All of you have taught me so much over the past year. Serving with each and every one of you has been a privilege. I value the friendships I have made with all of you.

If I can ever be of help or service to the Boeing team in the future, please don't hesitate to contact me.

My very best,

Nikki R. Haley


MARRIOTT (Business Update Call - 3/19)

The coronavirus or COVID-19 is fast becoming the most significant event to ever impact our business and that includes the 12-month period after 9/11 and the financial crisis of 2009. While the situation is changing by the day, we felt it important to update our key stakeholders on what we've seen to-date and detail the numerous steps we are taking to address and mitigate the negative impact on our business during this complex and unprecedented global crisis.

Let me start with what we've seen recently. While the first two months of the year saw a solid RevPAR growth in every region except for Asia-Pacific, the virus spread has clearly caused that picture to change dramatically over the last few weeks. In the Asia-Pacific region, which first saw the effects of COVID-19 in mid-January, RevPAR declined nearly 25% year-over-year through February with Greater China down 52% and RevPAR for the rest of the Asia-Pacific region down more than 8%.

So far in March as workers return to their jobs and regional travel resumes, albeit slowly, occupancy rates in China are beginning to rise. We've gone from over 90 hotels in Greater China closed at the height of the outbreak to under-30 closed today. It is encouraging to see the trend lines in China and the entire Asia-Pacific region starting to improve.

However as the virus has spread, there has been a sudden sharp decline in demand throughout the rest of the world and RevPAR at our hotels has dropped dramatically. Over the last few days occupancy rates in North America and Europe were under 25%, compared to around 70% a year ago. The crisis outside of the Asia-Pacific region is much more recent and the trends are still negative. Unfortunately, the situation will likely continue to get worse before it gets better. We do not expect to see a material improvement until there is a sense that the spread of the virus has moderated.

We continue to work with our customers to navigate this crisis. While there have been historically high levels of cancellations for stays through the first half of this year, there have not been a meaningful number of group cancellations for 2021 related to COVID-19, and many group customers are at least tentatively rebooking for dates in the second half of this year.


DELTA (Business Update Call - 3/18)

Following the national emergency that was declared by the U.S. President, demand for travel has dropped significantly. Revenue for the month of March is now expected to decline by almost $2 billion over last year, with our projection for April falling even more. Therefore, we will continue to make significant capacity reductions with a 70 percent systemwide pullback planned until demand starts to recover. Our international operation will take the largest reduction, with over 80 percent of flying reduced over the next two to three months.

We are having constructive discussions with the White House and Congress, and remain optimistic that our industry will receive support to help address this crisis. That said, we have to continue to take all necessary self-help measures. Cash preservation remains our top financial priority right now. Making swift decisions now to reduce the losses and preserve cash will provide us the resources to rebound from the other side of this crisis and protect Delta’s future.


AIRBUS (PR - 3/17)

Following the implementation of new measures in France and Spain to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, Airbus has decided to temporarily pause production and assembly activities at its French and Spanish sites across the Company for the next four days. This will allow sufficient time to implement stringent health and safety conditions in terms of hygiene, cleaning and self-distancing, while improving the efficiency of operations under the new working conditions. In those countries, the Company will also continue to maximise homeworking wherever possible.

These measures will be implemented locally in coordination with the social partners. Airbus is also working together with its customers and suppliers to minimise the impact of this decision on their operations.

Airbus continuously updates its workplace safety and travel recommendations to employees, customers and visitors, according to the latest developments.



United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL) CEO, Oscar Munoz and president J. Scott Kirby have issued a message to United's nearly 100,000 employees regarding the impact of the coronavirus on the company's business and the steps the airline is taking to manage it, the company said.

The statement addressed the impact of the virus on United's business has become worse with the new travel restrictions for the UK and Ireland. Munoz and Kirby said they feel an obligation to run the company in a way that protects the employees and to be open about the decisions facing the airlines.

The United leaders acknowledged March as its busiest month of the year, but is projecting that revenue in March 2020 will be USD 1.5 billion lower than last March.

United has taken steps to manage the crisis by reducing schedules, imposing a hiring freeze, introducing a voluntary leave program, reducing discretionary spending, cutting the CEO base by 100% and deferring a salary increase. Competitors have started to follow suit.



NEW YORK (S&P Global Ratings) --S&P Global Ratings today took the rating actions listed above. The sharp decline in air travel due to the coronavirus pandemic will hurt demand for car rentals at airports, the largest part of Avis Budget's business. Further, the pandemic and government actions to combat it will hurt economic activity, an effect likely to linger after cases of the virus decline. Car renters have some flexibility to respond to sharp demand shocks and have done so in the past. During the period following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the U.S. car rental industry was able to downsize its fleet by around 20% in the following month by returning cars to the auto manufacturers under agreements that allowed such returns as long as certain conditions were met. However, most of Avis Budget's vehicles today are not covered under these agreements, which could cause oversupply and thus pressure on used car prices.



The Company is withdrawing its previous 2020 financial guidance due to the rapidly changing environment as the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, and is providing the following updates.

The Company has experienced more dramatic declines in passenger bookings in March and second quarter 2020, as well as an unprecedented increase in close-in trip cancellations. The Company has recently experienced several days of net negative bookings, primarily in March and April 2020, where trip cancellations outpaced new passenger bookings. The Company's month-to-date load factor through March 15, 2020, was approximately 67 percent, with recent days trending toward 50 percent. As the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic grows, and based on current booking and cancellation trends, we expect revenue trends for the remainder of March and second quarter 2020 to deteriorate further.

Given the continued uncertainty of revenue trends attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Company has taken several actions to help manage the near-term financial impacts. The Company will soon reduce its published flight schedules, which will reduce available seat miles (ASMs, or capacity) by at least 20 percent for the time period April 14, 2020 through June 5, 2020. These flight schedule reductions are in addition to the Company's existing capacity impact due to the Boeing 737 MAX groundings. The Company continues to evaluate further flight schedule reductions.

The Company is also instituting a hiring freeze; offering voluntary leave options for Employees; and aggressively evaluating all capital spending, discretionary spending, and all non-essential costs for near-term cost reductions or deferrals.

The Company’s investment-grade balance sheet and long-standing financial health has provided ready access to capital markets and bank financing. As announced recently, the Company issued $500 million of unsecured debt. As discussed in Item 2.03 above, on March 12, 2020, the Company entered into a $1.0 billion term loan credit facility agreement. In addition, as discussed in Item 2.03 above, the Company has drawn down the full $1.0 billion under its $1.0 billion revolving credit facility expiring in August 2022. Including these financing transactions, the Company’s current unrestricted cash balance is estimated to be approximately $6.2 billion. The Company currently has approximately 525 unencumbered aircraft valued at approximately $10 billion.

Upon completion of its current share repurchase program, the Company will have approximately $765 million remaining under its May 2019 $2.0 billion share repurchase authorization, and will suspend further share repurchases.

As it is difficult for the Company to estimate the duration and severity of the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Company is actively pursuing additional opportunities to preserve cash, bolster liquidity, and improve its near-term working capital position to protect its business and restore long-term financial strength.


AIR CANADA (IR Circulars - 3/16)

MONTREAL, March 16, 2020 /CNW Telbec/ - Air Canada, along with the rest of the global airline industry, is facing a severe drop in traffic and a corresponding decline in revenue as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak and travel restrictions imposed in many countries around the world, including Canada and the United States. Although the company expects this disruption to be temporary, as the full impact and duration of the outbreak is unknown, Air Canada is withdrawing its previously announced first quarter and full year 2020 guidance as well as its full year 2021 guidance (including its free cash flow guidance for the 2019-2021 period) while it takes steps to mitigate the financial impact on its business.

"COVID-19 presents the global airline industry with unprecedented challenges, compounded by uncertainty as to the extent of its effects. However, we are confident that after a decade of transformation and record results, Air Canada today has the agility, the team and the route network to successfully navigate through this crisis. Most importantly for business continuity, it also has the necessary financial resources, including a solid balance sheet, record liquidity levels, higher debt ratings based on a low leverage ratio, and a significant pension plan surplus. These deep strengths enable us to fully focus our immediate attention on both the safety and well-being of our customers and our employees and on mitigating the financial impact of the virus," said Calin Rovinescu, President and Chief Executive Officer of Air Canada



The rapid spread of COVID-19, and associated government travel restrictions and advisories are having a significant and increasingly negative impact on the demand for global air traffic on almost all routes operated by IAG's airlines.

To date IAG has suspended flights to China, reduced capacity on Asian routes, cancelled all flights to, from and within Italy and made various changes to our network. 

The US Presidential announcement to restrict entry of foreign nationals who have been in countries in the Schengen Area, the UK and Ireland has added to the uncertainty on North Atlantic routes. In addition, many other countries have banned or are restricting inward travel including Argentina, Chile, India and Peru. Spain has also been the subject of travel advisories, for example by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO).

IAG is implementing further initiatives in response to this challenging market environment. Capacity, in terms of available seat kilometres, in the first quarter of 2020 is now expected to be reduced by around 7.5 per cent compared to last year. For April and May, the Group plans to reduce capacity by at least 75 per cent compared to the same period in 2019.  

IAG is also taking actions to reduce operating expenses and improve cash flow. These include grounding surplus aircraft, reducing and deferring capital spending, cutting non-essential and non-cyber related IT spend, freezing recruitment and discretionary spending, implementing voluntary leave options, temporarily suspending employment contracts and reducing working hours. 

Given the continued uncertainty on the potential impact and duration of COVID-19, it is still not possible to give accurate profit guidance for the full year 2020.


SINGAPORE AIRLINES (IR Circulars - 3/16)

Since the start of February 2020, the SIA Group has progressively announced flight cuts
across the network as it adjusts capacity to match demand changes arising from the
spread of COVID-19 across the globe. Market conditions have continued to deteriorate in
March and, with WHO declaring COVID-19 a pandemic and multiple countries issuing travel
advisories and restrictions, travel demand is expected to weaken significantly in the near


RYANAIR (6K - 3/16)

Over the past week, the spread of the Covid-19 virus and associated Government travel restrictions, many of which have been imposed without notice, have had a significant and negative impact on the schedules of all Ryanair Group Airlines.

Over the past 7 days, Italy, Malta, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Greece, Morocco, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, Norway and Cyprus have imposed flight bans of varying degrees, from all flights to/from the country, or banned flights to/from countries with high risk of Covid infection. Over the weekend for example, Poland and Norway have banned all international flights, while in other countries (without travel bans) there has been severe reduction of ATC and essential airport services.



Due to the spread and recent developments, including growing port restrictions around the world, related to the COVID-19 outbreak, the Corporation previously announced a voluntary and temporary pause of its fleet cruise operations by its continental Europe and North American brands. Subsequently, the Corporation implemented a temporary pause of its global fleet cruise operations across all brands. Each brand has separately announced the duration of its pause. Significant events affecting travel, including COVID-19, typically have an impact on booking patterns, with the full extent of the impact generally determined by the length of time the event influences travel decisions. The Corporation believes the ongoing effects of COVID-19 on its global bookings and operations will have a material negative impact on its financial results and liquidity. The Corporation is taking additional actions to improve its liquidity, including capital expenditure and operating expense reductions, and pursuing additional financing. Given the uncertainty of the situation, the Corporation is currently unable to provide an earnings forecast, however we expect results of operations for the fiscal year ending November 30, 2020 to result in a net loss.


EXPEDIA (8K - 3/13)

SEATTLE, WA - March 13, 2020 – Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) announced today that it is withdrawing its full-year 2020 Adjusted EBITDA guidance due to the growing impact from the COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting uncertainty on travel trends. With the outbreak spreading significantly since Expedia’s fourth quarter earnings call on February 13, 2020, we now expect the negative impact in the first quarter related to COVID-19 to be in excess of the $30-$40 million range provided at that time. 

"As COVID-19 has rapidly spread from Asia to Europe and North America over the past few weeks, travel trends have continued to worsen. It remains difficult to predict how long this pandemic will persist, and given the lack of visibility on our trends we've decided to withdraw our 2020 guidance," said Chairman Barry Diller and Vice Chairman Peter Kern.

HUDSON LTD (Earnings Call - 3/11)

Looking forward to 2020, we wanted to share with you what we have seen in traffic and sales trends year-to-date. In the first weeks of January, prior to the impact of the coronavirus, our sales increased slightly year-over-year despite the loss of New Orleans store closures in November last year. In the second half of January, as the coronavirus spread beyond China, we began to see lower traffic in our North American markets that extended into February, with sales down approximately 10%. We believe that based on the trends we're currently seeing, the net sales in Q1 2020 will decline by low to mid-teens year-over-year.

Given the widening spread of the coronavirus and its related impact on travel, both business and personal, we expect continued pressure on traffic and sales in the near term. As we can't currently estimate the duration of the future trajectory of travel disruption, we don't believe it's prudent to provide the full year outlook at this time. We do, however, remain optimistic about the stronger pipeline of RFPs this year and our improved competitive position. We expect to close our OHM acquisition early Q2 and to leverage the food and beverage business to drive sales momentum in 2020 and beyond, supported by the benefit of our Brookstone acquisition. We feel great about our ability to execute against the things that are in our control, including implementing efficiency initiatives to ensure disciplined cost management in response to the sales trends.

BOC AVIATION LTD (Earnings Call - 3/11)

In 2020, we are receiving requests from some of our customers for assistance as passenger demand and, therefore, airline revenue is affected by COVID-19. We're a long-term partner to our airline customers, and we will evaluate any such request carefully in light of their cash flow forecasts and in light of the support provided by other stakeholders.

We'll work with affected customers to find solutions, which we believe will likely involve partial deferrals of rent for 3 months or less with interest payable on overdue amounts or will involve more purchase and leaseback transactions with those customers. In this context, I'd like to remind everyone that we are the owner of our aircraft. We're a senior creditor of our airline customers and our operating these contracts are well structured. We're paid rent monthly or quarterly in advance. We collect security deposits, and for many of our customers, we collect security to provide protection against future major maintenance events. At the same time, we're looking for opportunities to provide liquidity for our customers and to put good new business on our balance sheet. Since the beginning of 2020, we've added another 42 aircraft to our order book, comprising 20 A320NEO delivery positions, 10 of which we've already placed with an airline customer, and we've also executed our largest ever purchase and lease transaction for 22 Boeing 787, which is scheduled for delivery to American Airlines in 2020 and 2021. These transactions illustrate the strength of our global customer reach. It also highlights the way our team contributes to build good long-term business on the strength of our capital structure and our available liquidity.

Having over $5 billion in available liquidity as of today's date and A- credit ratings positions us well to work with a global customer base and execute new investment opportunities. And with that, I'll hand it over to Thim Fatt.

HILTON (8K - 3/11)

McLEAN, VA (March 10, 2020) – Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HLT) today announced the withdrawal of its previously announced first quarter and full year 2020 outlook due to the evolving impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) on the global economy.

Christopher J. Nassetta, President & Chief Executive Officer of Hilton, said, "Our first thoughts continue to be with our guests and team members affected by the coronavirus. It is times like these when the world needs our hospitality most, particularly in the communities that have been hit hardest by the outbreak.

“With the coronavirus now spreading beyond China and the Asia Pacific region, and the related increase in travel restrictions and cancellations around the world, we believe that the potential negative impact will be greater than our previous estimate and have decided to withdraw our previously announced guidance. We will provide an update during our first quarter earnings call, based on the information we have available at the time.

“As a 100-year company that takes the long view, we are confident in our resilient business model, the performance of our leading brand portfolio, and our ability to respond appropriately to market conditions.”


DELTA AIRLINES (JPMorgan Aviation, Transportation and Industrials Conference - 3/10)

As the situation has evolved, our first priority has been protecting the health and the safety of our customers and our employees. Our team has significantly increased resources to insuring our aircraft and facilities are clean and exceed our already high safety standards. While our year had gotten off to a strong start, in fact being ahead of plan for the first two months. Two weeks ago, our revenue trajectory changed dramatically as the virus spread meaningfully outside of Asia. Since then, we have seen a 25% to 30% decline in net bookings and are prepared for it to get worse. We expect demand erosion will continue in the near term and a built-up plan that prioritizes free cash flow generation and preserves liquidity



Due to the heightened uncertainty surrounding the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus, its duration and its impact on overall demand for air travel, American Airlines Group Inc. (the “Company”) is withdrawing its 2020 guidance issued on January 23, 2020.



In addition to the significant efforts underway to protect the health and safety of its customers and employees, Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) is announcing additional steps to address the financial impact of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak.

“In the weeks since COVID-19 emerged, Delta people have risen to the challenge, taking every possible action to take care of and protect our customers during a stressful time,” said Delta CEO Ed Bastian. “As the virus has spread, we have seen a decline in demand across all entities, and we are taking decisive action to also protect Delta’s financial position. As a result, we have made the difficult, but necessary decision to immediately reduce capacity and are implementing cost reductions and cash flow initiatives across the organization.”


RYANAIR (6K - 3/10)

Ryanair does not expect these traffic reductions to have a material impact on FY20 (31 March 2020) PAT guidance. It is far too early to assess the impact of Covid-19 on FY21 traffic and earnings. The Ryanair Group will continue to focus on delivering cost savings and improved operational efficiency in FY21. Ryanair is one of the strongest airlines in the industry with €4bn in cash, industry leading unit costs, 90% of the fleet is owned with over 70% debt free.



The company had previously communicated that its 2020 guidance did not include the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. Given the recent government actions and the heightened impact and uncertainty of changes in the magnitude, duration and geographic reach of COVID-19, the company is withdrawing its first quarter and full-year 2020 guidance.



United Airlines, Inc. ("United"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. ("UAL", and together with United, the "Company") has continued to experience a material decline in demand for both international and domestic travel, as well as an increase in trip cancellations, resulting from the spread of coronavirus ("COVID-19"). As such, the Company has taken proactive steps to mitigate the financial and operational impact to the business.

As a result of the decline in demand resulting from COVID-19, in addition to the capacity reductions on the Company's trans-Pacific routes announced last month, the Company has also announced that it has pulled down 10% of its domestic schedules and 20% of its international schedules in April. The Company also anticipates making reductions in May of at least 20% and plans to proactively evaluate and cancel flights on a rolling 90-day basis until it sees signs of a recovery in demand. The Company's capacity reductions have been focused on, but not limited to, reducing frequencies in markets with the ability to re-accommodate passengers on other frequencies or through other hubs, destinations in level 3 or level 4 travel advisory regions and surrounding areas and routes performing significantly below the system average.



Due to increased uncertainty surrounding the duration and scale of the Covid-19 outbreak, Air New Zealand has today announced that it will be withdrawing the full year 2020 earnings guidance it issued to the market on 24 February 2020 and reconfirmed at its interim results announcement on 27 February 2020.

Air New Zealand has taken numerous steps to mitigate the impact of reduced demand resulting from Covid-19, including reducing capacity on its Asia, Tasman and Domestic networks, redeploying its fuel efficient 787 Dreamliner fleet to drive operational efficiencies and using tactical pricing to stimulate demand on the impacted sectors. However, the airline now believes that the financial impact is likely to be more significant than previously estimated and with the situation evolving at such a rapid pace, the airline is not in a position to provide an earnings outlook to the market at this time. An update on earnings expectations will be provided when appropriate


QANTAS AIRLINES (IR Circulars - 3/9)

Announcing the changes, Qantas Group CEO Alan Joyce, said: “In the past fortnight we’ve seen a sharp drop in bookings on our international network as the global coronavirus spread continues.

“We expect lower demand to continue for the next several months, so rather than taking a piecemeal approach we’re cutting capacity out to mid-September. This improves our ability to reduce costs as well as giving more certainty to the market, customers and our people.



“As we explained when we provided first quarter 2020 guidance during our fourth quarter earnings announcement on February 26, 2020, the circumstances of the COVID-19 outbreak are changing rapidly and our guidance was based on the information we had at the time. As the situation has worsened and the negative impact on travel demand has increased since we provided guidance, in particular more broadly across Europe and in North America, we have decided to withdraw that guidance. Given the rapidly evolving situation, we are unable at this time to reliably quantify the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on our future financial results. We plan to provide more information during our first quarter earnings call based on the information we have available at that time.”

Mr. Fogel continued, “While the full impact and duration of the COVID-19 outbreak is unknown at this time, we have been through travel disruptions in the past and expect that this disruption will ultimately be temporary. We believe the company has a strong operating model and solid balance sheet, which will enable us to weather this disruption. We remain confident in our long-term prospects and strategy, and we will continue to manage the company in a measured way to build value for the long term. In the meantime, we will continue to monitor the situation and support our customers, partners and employees during this difficult time. Our thoughts remain with the people impacted by this outbreak.”


HOST HOTELS (8K - 3/9)

Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (NYSE: HST), the nation's largest lodging real estate investment trust (the "Company"), today announced it is withdrawing its full-year 2020 guidance due to the ongoing financial impact of reduced travel demand as a result of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.



Regarding the Company’s outlook, Katz said, “Given the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the coronavirus on the broader U.S. travel market and any specific impact to the performance of our Company, we are not issuing guidance at this time for fiscal 2020 and are withdrawing our previous guidance issued on January 17, 2020. In the week ended March 8, 2020, we saw a marked negative change in performance from the prior week, with destination skier visits modestly below expectations. We expect this trend to continue and potentially worsen in upcoming weeks.”


TRIVAGO (20F - 3/6) 

Many events beyond our control can adversely affect the travel industry, with a corresponding negative impact on our business and results of operations. Natural disasters, including hurricanes, tsunamis, earthquakes or volcanic eruptions, as well as other natural phenomena, such as outbreaks of the Zika virus, the Ebola virus, avian flu and, most recently, a novel strain of coronavirus first identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, as well as other pandemics and epidemics, have disrupted normal travel patterns and levels in the past. We believe that the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak will have a negative impact on our global business volumes in 2020. The travel industry is also sensitive to events that may discourage travel, such as work stoppages or labor unrest, political instability, regional hostilities, increases in fuel prices, imposition of taxes or surcharges by regulatory authorities, travel-related accidents and terrorist attacks or threats. We do not have insurance coverage against loss or business interruption resulting from war and terrorism, and we may be unable to fully recover any losses we sustain due to other factors beyond our control under our existing insurance coverage. The occurrence of any of the foregoing events may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition and prospects.


ITV.GB (Earnings Call - 3/5)

Total advertising is expected to be up 2% in Q1. This is the third quarter of growth, and we are seeing double-digit growth in online and partnerships revenues. Early indications suggest that total ad revenue will be down 10% in April. In March and April, we have seen an impact from travel advertising deferments relating to the coronavirus. All deferments to date are included in our guidance.



Such events are likely to cause our lessees to incur higher costs and to generate lower revenues, which could result in a material adverse effect on their financial condition and liquidity, including their ability to make rental and other lease payments to us or to obtain the types and amounts of insurance we require. This in turn could lead to aircraft groundings or additional lease restructurings and repossessions, increase our cost of re-leasing or selling aircraft, impair our ability to re-lease or otherwise dispose of aircraft on favorable terms or at all, or reduce the proceeds we receive for our aircraft in a disposition.

The effects of epidemic diseases, such as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, and natural disasters, such as extreme weather conditions, floods, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, may adversely affect the demand for air travel, the financial condition of our lessees and of the aviation industry more broadly, and ultimately our financial condition, results and cash flows.



IRVINE, CA – March 5, 2020 – Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. (the “Company” or “Sunstone”) (NYSE: SHO), the owner of Long-Term Relevant Real Estate® in the hospitality sector, today announced that due to uncertainty related to the ultimate impact on travel demand resulting from the COVID-19 virus outbreak, the Company is withdrawing its first quarter and full-year 2020 guidance.

On February 18, 2020, as part of the Company’s full-year 2019 earnings report, Sunstone provided first quarter and full-year 2020 guidance for certain operational and earnings metrics. Included in this guidance was approximately $1 million of lost revenue resulting primarily from known group customer cancelations related to COVID-19.  Since the time this guidance was provided, the Company has experienced a material increase in expected lost revenue from group customer cancelations, which, as of today’s date, have increased to approximately $11 million. The majority of the lost revenue is related to business that was scheduled to occur in March 2020. The Company believes that the impact from these trends will most likely result in the Company failing to achieve the previously provided first quarter guidance for net income, comparable portfolio RevPAR growth, Adjusted EBITDAre, Adjusted FFO, and Adjusted FFO per diluted share.  The impact of COVID-19 on travel demand continues to evolve and the Company is currently not able to accurately assess the financial impact on its full-year operations. As such, the full-year guidance previously provided on February 18, 2020 should no longer be relied upon.  

John Arabia, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, “Since the time of our earnings call, we have witnessed a sizeable increase in both group cancelations and corporate travel policy restrictions related to COVID-19, both of which are expected to reduce our near-term occupancy and hotel revenues.  As a result, we are unlikely to achieve our first quarter 2020 guidance. Furthermore, as we are currently unable to quantify the full-year impact of COVID-19 on hotel operating fundamentals, we believe it is prudent to withdraw our previously provided full-year guidance.  As the situation evolves, we will continue to assess the expected impact of COVID-19 on our operations and earnings, while working to protect the hotel employees and guests.”



As we continue to increase our international operations we increase our exposure to international business risks that could cause our operating results to suffer.

While our headquarters are in Canada, we currently have direct operations in the U.S., EMEA, Asia Pacific and South American regions. We anticipate that these international operations will continue to require significant management attention and financial resources to localize our services and products for delivery in these markets, to develop compliance expertise relating to international regulatory agencies, and to develop direct and indirect sales and support channels in those markets. We face a number of risks associated with conducting our business internationally that could negatively impact our operating results. These risks include, but are not limited to:


The risk of travel advisories or travel restrictions related to the outbreak of contagious illnesses, such as the coronavirus that is currently impacting China and other geographies, which could impact our ability to operate in certain markets and/or manage our operations in those markets;


DELTA - (Prospectus - 3/4)

In 2003, an outbreak of a coronavirus known as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) originating in China became an epidemic and resulted in a slowdown of passenger air traffic due contagion fears. With RPK growth being cut in half, widebody aircraft values took a brief hit due to oversupply in the market as airlines tried to cut capacity. Impact on values was minor and short-lived; however, a new, recently discovered coronavirus, also originating from China, may have a similar impact on RPK growth and aircraft pricing. The first case of the new virus was linked to a seafood market in Wuhan, China, with the first person reported ill in December 2019. By the end of January 2020, several countries confirmed the illness had reached their borders including to the U.S., Australia, Japan, Canada, France, and Germany plus several Southeast Asian countries. With asymptomatic patients being able to spread the virus, the Chinese government has quarantined Wuhan and several surrounding cities, essentially cutting off transportation links to around 35 million people. Several countries are weighing whether to close their borders with China to suppress the spread of the virus despite a significant impact on their economies, and many have limited travel to China. As news of the virus spreads, markets have fluctuated, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 1.6% on January 27, 2020, and markets in South Korea and Japan dropping nearly 3.0% the next day. However, U.S. markets were back to record highs by early February. How much of an impact this will have on air travel globally remains to be seen, though with the epidemic occurring over the Chinese Lunar New Year, it would not be surprising to see RPK growth in 2020 fall below previous forecasts.


LUFTHANSA - (PR - 3/4)

German airline giant Lufthansa said Wednesday it would ground 150 of its more than 750 planes worldwide, days after announcing a slimmed-down timetable over the effects of the novel coronavirus.

"25 long-haul aircraft and 125 short- and medium-haul aircraft" will no longer fly, a spokesman for the group also including carriers Eurowings, Austrian and Swiss told AFP.

Shares in Lufthansa have plunged in recent days as the likely impact of the COVID-19 disease on the aviation sector in particular has become clearer.


BROWN-FORMAN (Earnings Call - 3/4)

While we experienced some improvement in the quarter and had anticipated further improvement in the fourth quarter, resulting from the phasing of certain customer purchases, we now estimate that as a result of the coronavirus, our Travel Retail business for the full year will be down similar to year-to-date performance. Our used barrel business declined significantly in the third quarter. The decline in this business reflects both a reduction in demand due in part to the U.S. tariff impact on Single Malt Scotch Whisky; and secondly, softening prices driven by the increased supply of the used barrels in the market. This business and our other non-branded business, which includes contract bottling and bulk whiskey and bulk wine sales, have negatively affected our underlying net sales year-to-date by about 1 percentage point.


GENERAL ELECTRIC (IR Presentation - 3/4)

Focus: COVID-19 as of today

Impact - too early to assess full-year 2020

  • Estimated $(0.3)-$(0.5)B FCF* & $(0.2)-$(0.3)B operating profit impact in 1Q
  • Impact embedded in 1Q estimates of ~$(2)B FCF* & ~$0.10 adjusted EPS*


RYANAIR - (6K - 3/2)

Ryanair remains one of the strongest airlines in the industry with €4bn in cash on its balance sheet, industry leading unit costs, 90% of the fleet is owned, and is mainly debt free. We expect that this Covid-19 Virus will result in further EU airline failures over the coming weeks.

Ryanair Group CEO, Michael O'Leary said:

"Our focus at this time is on minimising any risk to our people and our passengers. While we are heavily booked over the next two weeks, there has been a notable drop in forward bookings towards the end of Mar, into early Apr. It makes sense to selectively prune our schedule to and from those airports where travel has been most affected by the Covid-19 outbreak.


DIRECT LINE INSURANCE  (Annual Report - 3/2)

In addition, the Coronavirus outbreak (specifically the disease COVID-19) has the potential to impact the 2020 result of our Travel business. We have Travel reinsurance protection to mitigate the cost of an event over a 28 day period to £1 million up to a limit of £10 million. The full coverage, if utilised, can be reinstated once on the same terms. Currently, incurred claims are around £1 million. Like all businesses, we are subject to the consequences of disruption to financial markets and global supply chains which, over time, could impact the performance of our investments and the cost and speed of fulfilling customers’ claims



When travel is severely curtailed across a geographic region during adverse weather conditions, or as a result of a natural catastrophe or public health crises, the number and amount of transactions we process can be significantly diminished, particularly in our fleet business, and revenue can materially decline. For example, during parts of January 2014, severe winter weather shut down a large portion of the eastern U.S. Natural catastrophes such as hurricanes in east Texas (Hurricane Harvey) and in Florida (Hurricane Irma), each in 2017, wildfires in California in 2017 and 2018 and in Colorado in 2012 and flooding in Arkansas in 2019, had similar effects on a more local basis. In December 2019 and January 2020, an outbreak of COVID-19, a new strain of coronavirus in Wuhan, China has resulted in travel disruption and has effected certain companies’ operations in China, although, at this point, the extent to which the coronavirus may impact our results is uncertain. Prolonged adverse weather events or travel bans due to medical quarantine or in response to natural catastrophes, especially those that impact regions in which we process a large number and amount of payment transactions, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.


NEWELL BRANDS (10K - 3/2) 

In addition, our global operations expose us to risks associated with public health crises, such as pandemics and epidemics, which could harm our business and cause our operational results to suffer. For example, in December 2019 and January 2020, an outbreak of a new strain of Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, has resulted in travel disruption and an impact on corporate operations in China. At this point, the exact extent to which the Coronavirus may impact our supply chain or results of operations is uncertain; however, our revenues may be impacted in the first half of 2020.



While the situation is uncertain, based on current assumptions of lower demand as well as the benefit of the announced capacity reductions and lower jet fuel prices, the airline currently expects a net negative impact to earnings in the range of $35 million to $75 million as a result of Covid-19.

At the midpoint of the estimated range above, which is approximately $55 million, the airline is targeting earnings before other significant items and taxation to be in a range of approximately $300 million to $350 million.



Public perception about the safety of travel and adverse publicity related to passenger or crew illness, such as incidents of viral illnesses, stomach flu or other contagious diseases may impact demand for cruises and result in cruise cancellations and employee absenteeism. For example, the recent outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus has resulted in costs and lost revenue related to customer compensation, itinerary modifications, travel restrictions and advisories, the unavailability of ports and/or destinations, cancellations and redeployments and has impacted consumer sentiment regarding cruise travel. The spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus, particularly in North America, could exacerbate its effect on us. Any future wide-ranging health scares would also likely adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.


MGM RESORTS (10K - 2/27)

Leisure and business travel, especially travel by air, are particularly susceptible to global geopolitical events, such as terrorist attacks, other acts of violence or acts of war or hostility or the outbreak of infectious diseases. We are dependent on the willingness of our customers to travel by air. Since most of our customers travel by air to our Las Vegas and Macau properties, any terrorist act or other acts of violence, outbreak of hostilities, escalation of war, or any actual or perceived threat to the security of travel by air could adversely affect our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. In addition, the outbreak of infectious diseases, such as the recent coronavirus, may severely disrupt domestic and international travel. For instance, the coronavirus outbreak has resulted in several countries, including United States, issuing travel warnings and suspending flights to and from China. In addition, on February 4, 2020, the Hong Kong SAR government temporarily suspended all ferry service from Hong Kong to Macau, until further notice. We are unable to predict the extent to which disruptions to travel as a result of the coronavirus will impact our results of operations but we expect that the current disruption will have an adverse effect on MGM China’s results of operations for the first quarter of 2020 and potentially thereafter. Furthermore, although we have been able to purchase some insurance coverage for certain types of terrorist acts, insurance coverage against loss or business interruption resulting from war and some forms of terrorism continues to be unavailable.


DIAGEO (6K - 2/26)

Public health measures across impacted countries in Asia Pacific, principally in China, have resulted in: restrictions on public gatherings, the postponement of events and the closure of many hospitality and retail outlets. Several countries and many businesses have also imposed restrictions on travel.  

It is difficult to predict the duration and extent of any further spread of the COVID-19 outbreak both in and outside of Asia. Based on current information we have made assumptions to estimate the fiscal 2020 impact on the performance of the following businesses:

SABRE CORP (8K - 2/26)

As we kick off 2020, a global health crisis related to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) is impacting travel bookings, but more importantly, the lives of many around the world. The situation continues to evolve, and while we hope its impact will be short-term in nature, Coronavirus will have a material impact on our 2020 financial results. We have not incorporated its impact into our 2020 guidance at this point.”



As a result of the recent coronavirus outbreak originating in China, we began in January 2020 to experience, and continue to experience, a significant decline in travel demand and increase in customer cancellations predominantly related to travel to, from or in China and certain other Asian markets, though concerns about the coronavirus are also negatively impacting travel demand (and therefore our business) generally. Some countries have implemented travel bans or restrictions and some airlines have suspended or limited flights to or from China. We are working with our travelers and travel service provider partners to address cancellations, requests for refunds, rebookings and similar matters. In addition, like many other companies, we have instructed or allowed employees in high-risk areas to work from home or not report to work, which, especially if this persists for a prolonged period of time, may have an adverse impact on our employees, ability to service travelers, operations and systems. The ultimate extent of the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on travel in currently affected countries or more broadly is unknown and impossible to predict with certainty. As a result, the full extent to which the coronavirus will impact our business and results of operations is unknown. However, decreased travel demand resulting from the outbreak has had a negative impact, and is likely to have a negative and material impact, on our business, growth and results of operations. In addition, we may incur additional customer service costs in connection with servicing travelers affected by the outbreak, which would also have a negative impact on our results of operations.



An outbreak of disease or similar public health threat, or fear of such an event, that affects travel demand, travel behavior, or travel restrictions could have a material adverse impact on the Company's business, financial condition and operating results. In addition, outbreaks of disease could result in increased government restrictions and regulation, including quarantines of our personnel or an inability to access facilities or our aircraft, which could adversely affect our operations.

In December 2019, a novel strain of coronavirus ("COVID-19") was reported in Wuhan, China. The World Health Organization has declared COVID-19 to constitute a "Public Health Emergency of International Concern." On January 30, 2020, the U.S. Department of State issued a Level 4 "do not travel" advisory for China. The U.S. government has also implemented enhanced screenings, quarantine requirements and travel restrictions in connection with the COVID-19 outbreak.  The Company has suspended its flights between the United States and each of Beijing, Chengdu, Shanghai and Hong Kong through April 24, 2020. These routes represented approximately 5% of the Company's 2020 planned capacity and the Company's other trans-Pacific routes represented an additional 10% of the Company's 2020 planned capacity. As of the date of this report, the Company is experiencing an approximately 100% decline in near-term demand to China and an approximately 75% decline in near-term demand on the rest of the Company's trans-Pacific routes. The extent of the impact of the COVID-19 on the Company's operational and financial performance will depend on future developments, including the duration and spread of the outbreak and related travel advisories and restrictions and the impact of the COVID-19 on overall demand for air travel, all of which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted. If traffic on the Company's trans-Pacific routes were to remain at these levels for an extended period, and/or routes in other parts of the Company's network begin to see significant declines in demand, our results of operations for full year 2020 may be materially adversely affected.



The year 2020 has started off challenging as we address the impact of the recent coronavirus outbreak on our operations. Prior to the outbreak, our sailings in China were trending particularly well both in terms of rate and volume. Our itineraries in China were expected to represent 6% and 4% of our full year and first quarter 2020 capacity, respectively. The travel restrictions and other measures taken by China and other countries to contain the disease have resulted in the cancellation of an increasing number of our cruises in the region. We have also implemented several measures restricting the boarding of certain at-risk guests and crew on our ships. These and other concerns and restrictions relating to the coronavirus outbreak are having an impact on the demand for cruises and causing travel restrictions, guest cancellations, an unavailability of ports and/or destinations, ship redeployments and an inability to source our crew, provisions or supplies from certain places. All of these issues are having and are likely to continue to have a material impact on our bookings, operations and our overall financial performance. However, given the fluidity and uncertainty of this situation, we are unable to predict the full financial impact that this incident will have on our operations and financial condition, including what our yields and earnings for 2020 will be.


MASTERCARD - (8K - 2/24)

The fundamentals of our business remain strong, as our switched volume and switched transaction growth remain in-line with our expectations. However, cross-border travel, and to a lesser extent cross-border e-commerce growth, is being impacted by the Coronavirus. As a result, we now expect that if the trends we have seen recently -- primarily in our cross-border drivers -- continue through the end of the quarter, year-over-year net revenue growth in the first quarter will be approximately 2-3 percentage points lower than discussed on our January 29, 2020 earnings call. Under these circumstances, we would expect year-over-year net revenue growth of 9-10% in the first quarter on a currency-neutral basis, excluding acquisitions.


TELEDYNE (10K - 2/24)

Air travel declines have occurred after terrorist attacks and heightened security alerts, as well as after the high-profile outbreaks of disease, including the recent outbreak and spread of the Wuhan, China-originated Coronavirus. Additional declines in air travel resulting from these factors and other factors could adversely affect the financial condition of many of our commercial airline and aircraft manufacturer customers and, in turn, could adversely affect our Aerospace and Defense Electronics segment. In addition, a prolonged virus epidemic or pandemic, or the threat thereof, could result in worker absences, lower productivity, voluntary closure of our offices and manufacturing facilities, disruptions in our supply chain, travel restrictions on our employees, and other disruptions to our businesses. Moreover, health epidemics may force local health and government authorities to mandate the temporary closure of our offices and manufacturing facilities.


KKR & CO (10K - 2/18)

Political developments, natural disasters, war or threat of war, terrorist attacks, public health crises and other events outside of our control can, and periodically do, materially and adversely impact our portfolio companies and other investments around the world. Our investment strategies target opportunities globally, across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. Political instability and extremism, civil unrest and anti-government protests in any region where we have material business operations or investments can, and periodically does, have an adverse impact on our and our portfolio companies’ business results, reputation or license to operate. In addition, occurrence of war or hostilities involving a country in which we have investments or where our portfolio companies operate could adversely affect the operations and valuations of our portfolio companies and investments in such country. Natural disasters, such as extreme weather events, climate change, earthquakes, tsunamis or floods, can also have an adverse impact on certain of our portfolio companies and investments, especially our real asset investments and portfolio companies that rely on physical factories, plants or stores located in the affected areas. As the effects of climate change increase, we expect the frequency and impact of weather and climate related events and conditions to increase as well. For example, unseasonal or violent weather events can have a material impact to businesses or properties that focus on tourism or recreational travel. Public health crises, pandemics and epidemics, such as those caused by new strains of viruses such as H5N1 (avian flu), severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and, most recently, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), are also expected to increase as international travel continues to rise, and also directly and indirectly impact us and our portfolio companies in material respects by threatening our and their employees' well-being and morale, interrupting business activities, supply chains and transactional activities, disrupting travel, and negatively impacting the economies of the affected countries or regions.


EXPEDIA (10K - 2/14) 

Because these events or concerns, and the full impact of their effects, are largely unpredictable, they can dramatically and suddenly affect travel behavior by consumers and decrease demand. D ecrease in demand, depending on its scope and duration, together with any future issues affecting travel safety, could significantly and adversely affect our business, working capital and financial performance over the short and long-term. In addition, the disruption of the existing travel plans of a significant number of travelers upon the occurrence of certain events, such as severe weather conditions, actual or threatened terrorist activity, war or travel-related health events, could result in significant additional costs and decrease our revenues leading to constrained liquidity if we, as we have done historically in the case of severe weather conditions and travel-related health events, provide relief to affected travelers by refunding the price or fees associated with airline tickets, hotel reservations and other travel products and services.

With respect to the 2019 Novel Coronavirus outbreak specifically, we currently expect that our first quarter 2020 financial results will be negatively impacted, potentially to a material degree. In addition, as of the time of this Annual Report on Form 10-K, we expect the 2019 Novel Coronavirus will continue to negatively impact our businesses beyond the first quarter of 2020, but the extent and duration of such impacts over the longer term remain largely uncertain and dependent on future developments that cannot be accurately predicted at this time, such as the severity and transmission rate of the coronavirus, the extent and effectiveness of containment actions taken, including mobility restrictions, and the impact of these and other factors on travel behavior.


ESTEE LAUDER (10Q - 2/6)

While our business is performing well overall, we continue to face strong competition globally and economic challenges in certain countries. We are cautious of the continued decline in retail traffic primarily related to certain brick-and-mortar stores in the United States and the United Kingdom. This is due to the impact of shifts in consumer preferences as to where and how they shop, as well as adverse macroeconomic conditions in the United Kingdom. Our business in Hong Kong continues to be challenged, as the ongoing situation there has negatively impacted traffic in downtown shops and the airport and also led to intermittent store closures. We continue to monitor the geopolitical tensions between the United States and China and the uncertainties caused by the evolving trade policy dispute, which could increase our cost of sales and negatively impact our overall net sales, or otherwise have a material adverse effect on our business. We also continue to monitor the potential implications of the ongoing economic and political uncertainties stemming from the United Kingdom’s exit and transition from the European Union (i.e. “Brexit”) and continue developing our risk mitigation strategies to address such uncertainties. These strategies include changes related to regulatory and legislative compliance, assessing alternatives to supply chain routing, revising customer arrangements and analyzing inventory levels. We are monitoring the potential impacts of the recent outbreak of the coronavirus on our global business. After experiencing continued strong momentum into January, we have seen a significant decline in air travel and consumer traffic in key shopping and tourist areas. Although it is difficult to anticipate the full impact of the coronavirus on our business, global travel retail, localities most affected by the virus outbreak and destination markets favored by tourists are expected to experience the greatest negative impact in the coming months followed by a gradual recovery later in the fiscal year. We are also cautious of foreign currency movements, including their impacts on tourism. Additionally, we continue to monitor the effects of the global macroeconomic environment; social and political issues; regulatory matters, including the imposition of tariffs; geopolitical tensions; global health issues and global security issues.



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